NFL DFS Picks and Analysis - Week 12: The Grind Down - Rams vs. Chiefs

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, a fantasy football advice article for DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo. This DFS breakdown is a FAST and EFFICIENT preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the projections, projected ownership, picks, targets, and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.

Every game will be broken down with a DFS AND DFS Prop Site mentality. Betting lines are shown with projected team totals, spreads, and moneyline to give you an idea of the game environment. At the end of each section, we’ll deliver a DFS and Prop cheat sheet of props to bet, stacks to build, players to target, and low projected ownership plays that can make an impact on your weekly success.

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LineupHQ: Lineup optimizer with integrated tools.
Projected Ownership: Expected draft percentage for each player.
All Best Bets for Underdog: For every player, game, and team.
All Best Bets for PrizePicks:
Expert Rankings: Consensus best plays.
Top Stacks: based on our simulations.

Sports Betting Lines and Overview

Kansas City Chiefs DFS Breakdown

Team Projections

QB Team DKSal FDSal Proj Rank ProjAtt ProjYds
Patrick Mahomes KCC $8,200 $9,000 26.03 QB2 36.33 293.94
RB Team DKSal FDSal Proj Rank ProjRu% ProjTar%
Isiah Pacheco KCC $5,500 $6,300 11.31 RB29 52.30% 1.91%
Jerick McKinnon KCC $4,700 $5,500 6.98 RB47 5.05% 9.92%
Ronald Jones KCC $4,000 $4,700 5.95 RB53 20.24% 3.93%
WR/TE Team DKSal FDSal Proj Rank ProjTar% ProjTar
JuJu Smith-Schuster KCC $5,700 $6,600 #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A
Marquez Valdes-Scantling KCC $4,000 $5,800 13.42 WR28 18.21% 6.62
Justin Watson KCC $3,000 $5,000 13.02 WR31 17.26% 6.27
Skyy Moore KCC $3,000 $5,400 8.45 WR59 11.09% 4.03
Marcus Kemp KCC $3,000 $4,500 2.1 WR113 3.41% 1.24
Travis Kelce KCC $7,700 $8,200 20.08 TE1 27.83% 10.11
Noah Gray KCC $2,800 $4,200 3.27 TE43 5.40% 1.96

Los Angeles Rams Projections Breakdown

Team Projections

QB Team DKSal FDSal Proj Rank ProjAtt ProjYds
Bryce Perkins LAR $5,000 $6,600 16.09 QB23 27.59 164.14
RB Team DKSal FDSal Proj Rank ProjRu% ProjTar%
Cam Akers LAR $4,900 $5,900 6.02 RB52 43% 4%
Kyren Williams LAR $4,900 $5,300 7.32 RB45 20% 9%
Ronnie Rivers LAR $4,000 $4,500 0.75 RB82 7% 0%
WR/TE Team DKSal FDSal Proj Rank ProjTar% ProjTar
Allen Robinson LAR $5,500 $6,800 9.56 WR52 25% 6.79
Van Jefferson LAR $4,500 $5,600 8.86 WR56 21% 5.68
Ben Skowronek LAR $3,400 $5,100 3.91 WR96 10% 2.82
Brandon Powell LAR $3,000 $4,900 2.18 WR112 5% 1.48
Tutu Atwell LAR $3,000 $5,000 1.84 WR116 4% 1.14
Tyler Higbee LAR $4,200 $5,700 8.16 TE14 20% 5.60
Brycen Hopkins LAR $2,500 $4,100 0.46 TE78 1% 0.35
NFL DFS and Prop Site Analysis

— Speaking of lopsided games, the undermanned Rams are massive 14.5-point underdogs at Arrowhead against the Chiefs on Sunday afternoon. Kansas City’s 29.25 implied team total is the third-highest of the week, while LA’s 14.75 mark ranks dead last.

Matthew Stafford is in concussion protocol, while John Wolford is dealing with a neck issue. He’s back at practice, so there’s a chance he’ll start over Bryce Perkins. On what looks like the worst offense of the week, we’re not going out of our way to load up on the Rams, of course. Perkins does have a rushing component to his game, but I’m not sure that’ll be enough to make him anything more than a YOLO punt in tournaments. Tyler Higbee led all Rams pass-catchers with a 30% target share last week, but that was with Stafford under center for most of the game. Higbee’s still affordably priced for the role, but the uncertain QB situation makes just about everyone here a dicey fantasy play. Van Jefferson, Allen Robinson, and Ben Skowronek? Who needs it?

Darrell Henderson is a goner, which leaves Kyren Williams and Cam Akers to shoulder the load in the backfield. I’d imagine establishing the running game will be a priority for this shorthanded offense, but does it even matter? The Rams haven’t gotten the run game going all year long, anyway. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Williams take on a leading role, but this is a wait-and-see situation.

— That Patrick Mahomes guy is pretty good, and there’s no reason to expect the Chiefs to struggle in this one. The Rams’ defense has stuffed the run (5th in DVOA), but you can pass on ‘em (26th). Mahomes is the top projected QB on this Josh Allen-less slate. This also looks like a Travis Kelce slate, as he projects about 5 raw points better than any other tight end on the board. Of course, most other tight ends don’t have 25% target shares, either. The WR situation is a bit murkier, with all of JuJu Smith-Schuster, Kadarius Toney, and Mecole Hardman banged up. JuJu should play, but Toney looks more doubtful than questionable. Smith-Schuster is the best overall option there, but all of Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Justin Watson, and Skyy Moore are cheap enough to consider as punts in your Mahomes/Kelce stacks.

Isiah Pacheco gets zero passing work, but he’s starting to dominate the carries out of the backfield. Stacking KC’s passing game should be a popular approach in GPPs this week, which will naturally lead to lower ownership on Pacheco. Jerick McKinnon is the pass-catching back, but Mahomes certainly isn’t lacking options through the air.

Strong Projections: Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce

Strong Stack Options: Mahomes + Kelce, Mahomes + Kelce/Watson/MVS/Moore

Strong GPP Differentiators: JuJu Smith-Schuster, Isiah Pacheco

Roster Construction Punts/Values: Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Justin Watson, Kyren Williams

Favorite Prop Site Bet: Travis Kelce o79.5 Receiving Yards (PrizePicks)

About the Author

  • Taylor Smith (tcsmith031)

  • Taylor Smith is a native Texan (required by all fellow Texans to report this at all times) and a Southern California-based sports writer. He specializes in MLB and NBA while dabbling in a few other sports like a true degen when the other two are out of season. He has written about DFS in the past at Bang The Book, and you can find some of his previous work on SB Nation and FanRag Sports.

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