NFL DFS Picks and Analysis - Week 12: The Grind Down - Rams vs. Chiefs
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, a fantasy football advice article for DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo. This DFS breakdown is a FAST and EFFICIENT preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the projections, projected ownership, picks, targets, and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.
Every game will be broken down with a DFS AND DFS Prop Site mentality. Betting lines are shown with projected team totals, spreads, and moneyline to give you an idea of the game environment. At the end of each section, we’ll deliver a DFS and Prop cheat sheet of props to bet, stacks to build, players to target, and low projected ownership plays that can make an impact on your weekly success.
Weekly Premium DFS Resources for This Game
Your Premium Tool Access: Use These in Combination With The Grind Down
LineupHQ: Lineup optimizer with integrated tools.
Projected Ownership: Expected draft percentage for each player.
All Best Bets for Underdog: For every player, game, and team.
Expert Rankings: Consensus best plays.
Top Stacks: based on our simulations.
Sports Betting Lines and Overview
Kansas City Chiefs DFS Breakdown
Los Angeles Rams Projections Breakdown
NFL DFS and Prop Site Analysis
— Speaking of lopsided games, the undermanned Rams are massive 14.5-point underdogs at Arrowhead against the Chiefs on Sunday afternoon. Kansas City’s 29.25 implied team total is the third-highest of the week, while LA’s 14.75 mark ranks dead last.
— Matthew Stafford is in concussion protocol, while John Wolford is dealing with a neck issue. He’s back at practice, so there’s a chance he’ll start over Bryce Perkins. On what looks like the worst offense of the week, we’re not going out of our way to load up on the Rams, of course. Perkins does have a rushing component to his game, but I’m not sure that’ll be enough to make him anything more than a YOLO punt in tournaments. Tyler Higbee led all Rams pass-catchers with a 30% target share last week, but that was with Stafford under center for most of the game. Higbee’s still affordably priced for the role, but the uncertain QB situation makes just about everyone here a dicey fantasy play. Van Jefferson, Allen Robinson, and Ben Skowronek? Who needs it?
— Darrell Henderson is a goner, which leaves Kyren Williams and Cam Akers to shoulder the load in the backfield. I’d imagine establishing the running game will be a priority for this shorthanded offense, but does it even matter? The Rams haven’t gotten the run game going all year long, anyway. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Williams take on a leading role, but this is a wait-and-see situation.
— That Patrick Mahomes guy is pretty good, and there’s no reason to expect the Chiefs to struggle in this one. The Rams’ defense has stuffed the run (5th in DVOA), but you can pass on ‘em (26th). Mahomes is the top projected QB on this Josh Allen-less slate. This also looks like a Travis Kelce slate, as he projects about 5 raw points better than any other tight end on the board. Of course, most other tight ends don’t have 25% target shares, either. The WR situation is a bit murkier, with all of JuJu Smith-Schuster, Kadarius Toney, and Mecole Hardman banged up. JuJu should play, but Toney looks more doubtful than questionable. Smith-Schuster is the best overall option there, but all of Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Justin Watson, and Skyy Moore are cheap enough to consider as punts in your Mahomes/Kelce stacks.
— Isiah Pacheco gets zero passing work, but he’s starting to dominate the carries out of the backfield. Stacking KC’s passing game should be a popular approach in GPPs this week, which will naturally lead to lower ownership on Pacheco. Jerick McKinnon is the pass-catching back, but Mahomes certainly isn’t lacking options through the air.
Strong Stack Options: Mahomes + Kelce, Mahomes + Kelce/Watson/MVS/Moore
Favorite Prop Site Bet: Travis Kelce o79.5 Receiving Yards (PrizePicks)