NFL DFS Picks and Analysis - Week 12: The Grind Down - Saints vs. 49ers

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, a fantasy football advice article for DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo. This DFS breakdown is a FAST and EFFICIENT preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the projections, projected ownership, picks, targets, and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.

Every game will be broken down with a DFS AND DFS Prop Site mentality. Betting lines are shown with projected team totals, spreads, and moneyline to give you an idea of the game environment. At the end of each section, we’ll deliver a DFS and Prop cheat sheet of props to bet, stacks to build, players to target, and low projected ownership plays that can make an impact on your weekly success.

Weekly Premium DFS Resources for This Game

Your Premium Tool Access: Use These in Combination With The Grind Down
LineupHQ: Lineup optimizer with integrated tools.
Projected Ownership: Expected draft percentage for each player.
All Best Bets for Underdog: For every player, game, and team.
All Best Bets for PrizePicks:
Expert Rankings: Consensus best plays.
Top Stacks: based on our simulations.

Sports Betting Lines and Overview

San Francisco 49ers DFS Breakdown

Team Projections

QB Team DKSal FDSal Proj Rank ProjAtt ProjYds
Jimmy Garoppolo SFO $5,600 $6,800 19 QB10 30.77 247.05
RB Team DKSal FDSal Proj Rank ProjRu% ProjTar%
Christian McCaffrey SFO $8,800 $9,200 24.12 RB1 49.71% 21.81%
Elijah Mitchell SFO $4,900 $6,500 8.48 RB39 28.06% 3.04%
Kyle Juszczyk SFO $4,000 $4,600 1.21 RB77 0.31% 2.31%
WR/TE Team DKSal FDSal Proj Rank ProjTar% ProjTar
Deebo Samuel SFO $6,800 $6,900 15.6 WR13 21.70% 6.68
Brandon Aiyuk SFO $6,400 $6,700 12.74 WR36 22.09% 6.80
Jauan Jennings SFO $3,100 $5,600 3.59 WR99 7.34% 2.26
Ray-Ray McCloud SFO $3,000 $5,300 0.96 WR128 2.23% 0.69
Danny Gray SFO $3,000 $4,500 0.1 WR165 0.28% 0.09
George Kittle SFO $5,300 $6,200 10.84 TE7 17.41% 5.36
Tyler Kroft SFO $2,700 $4,100 0.73 TE73 1.51% 0.46

New Orleans Saints Projections Breakdown

Team Projections

QB Team DKSal FDSal Proj Rank ProjAtt ProjYds
Andy Dalton NOS $5,300 $6,700 12.73 QB32 31.82 212.22
RB Team DKSal FDSal Proj Rank ProjRu% ProjTar%
Alvin Kamara NOS $7,300 $7,100 17.89 RB9 63% 18%
David Johnson NOS $4,000 $5,000 3.86 RB60 15% 1%
Dwayne Washington NOS $4,100 $4,600 0.66 RB84 0% 2%
WR/TE Team DKSal FDSal Proj Rank ProjTar% ProjTar
Chris Olave NOS $6,600 $7,300 12.91 WR32 24% 7.53
Jarvis Landry NOS $4,400 $5,800 8.37 WR60 17% 5.50
Rashid Shaheed NOS $3,000 $5,100 5.84 WR74 12% 3.68
Marquez Callaway NOS $3,000 $4,700 1.39 WR120 3% 0.98
Tre’Quan Smith NOS $3,300 $4,900 0.94 WR129 2% 0.59
Juwan Johnson NOS $3,400 $5,500 6.82 TE24 13% 4.18
Adam Trautman NOS $2,500 $4,500 2.58 TE49 5% 1.67
NFL DFS and Prop Site Analysis

— Saints-49ers is expected to be one of the more lopsided games of Week 12, with San Francisco favored by 9.5 points at home as of this writing. The Niners’ offense has been rolling ever since Christian McCaffrey showed up, which is certainly no coincidence. The Saints’ defense ranks 15th in DVOA so far this season, but they’re a bit more susceptible to the run. We know the 49ers like to run it as much as anybody, so it’s a stellar matchup for McCaffrey against a familiar foe. He’s close to splitting the carries with Elijah Mitchell these days, but McCaffrey’s 27% target share is the differentiator. It’s tough to afford C-Mac around the industry, but he’s always great if you can get to him.

Jimmy Garoppolo is hardly ever the most appealing QB play, but he sure does have some elite weaponry at his disposal. Deebo Samuel drew twice as many throws as Brandon Aiyuk in his return last week, while George Kittle found the end zone twice. Given Samuel’s occasional work in the running game, he looks quite a bit more appealing than Aiyuk at a comparable salary. Deebo’s just underpriced regardless at $6,900 on FanDuel. There are several different ways to stack the Niners’ offense, so finding the right combination can be a bit tricky.

— San Francisco has one of the best defenses in the league, which explains the Saints’ underwhelming 17 implied team total in this one. Andy Dalton has flashed the occasional big game since taking over for Jameis Winston, but I see no need to mess with such things in a brutal matchup on the road. If you do want anything in this passing game, one-offing Chris Olave (24% targets) in tournaments is a fine option. He’s relatively cheap, but wide receiver is an incredibly deep position on a massive slate. Juwan Johnson has 5 touchdowns in the last 4 games, but there are better value targets at TE.

Alvin Kamara missed practice earlier in the week with illness, which puts his status for Sunday in question. Mark Ingram just returned to practice. If Kamara is out, maybe Ingram emerges as a decent punt play. The issue is the matchup is a brutal one, as the Niners rank third in DVOA against the run. Ingram’s also coming off a knee injury of his own. Kamara is a dicier high-end RB spend if he suits up. The role speaks for itself, but I’m not really going out of my way to jam a bunch of Saints into my lineups this week.

Strong Projections: Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel

Strong Stack Options: Garoppolo + Samuel, Garoppolo + McCaffrey, Garoppolo + Samuel/Kittle

Strong GPP Differentiators: Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave, Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle

Roster Construction Punts/Values: Juwan Johnson, Mark Ingram (if Kamara is out), Jimmy Garoppolo

Favorite Prop Site Bet: Chris Olave o60.5 Receiving Yards (PrizePicks)

About the Author

  • Taylor Smith (tcsmith031)

  • Taylor Smith is a native Texan (required by all fellow Texans to report this at all times) and a Southern California-based sports writer. He specializes in MLB and NBA while dabbling in a few other sports like a true degen when the other two are out of season. He has written about DFS in the past at Bang The Book, and you can find some of his previous work on SB Nation and FanRag Sports.

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