NFL DFS Picks and Analysis - Week 12: The Grind Down - Saints vs. 49ers
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, a fantasy football advice article for DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo. This DFS breakdown is a FAST and EFFICIENT preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the projections, projected ownership, picks, targets, and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.
Every game will be broken down with a DFS AND DFS Prop Site mentality. Betting lines are shown with projected team totals, spreads, and moneyline to give you an idea of the game environment. At the end of each section, we’ll deliver a DFS and Prop cheat sheet of props to bet, stacks to build, players to target, and low projected ownership plays that can make an impact on your weekly success.
Weekly Premium DFS Resources for This Game
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LineupHQ: Lineup optimizer with integrated tools.
Projected Ownership: Expected draft percentage for each player.
All Best Bets for Underdog: For every player, game, and team.
Expert Rankings: Consensus best plays.
Top Stacks: based on our simulations.
Sports Betting Lines and Overview
San Francisco 49ers DFS Breakdown
New Orleans Saints Projections Breakdown
NFL DFS and Prop Site Analysis
— Saints-49ers is expected to be one of the more lopsided games of Week 12, with San Francisco favored by 9.5 points at home as of this writing. The Niners’ offense has been rolling ever since Christian McCaffrey showed up, which is certainly no coincidence. The Saints’ defense ranks 15th in DVOA so far this season, but they’re a bit more susceptible to the run. We know the 49ers like to run it as much as anybody, so it’s a stellar matchup for McCaffrey against a familiar foe. He’s close to splitting the carries with Elijah Mitchell these days, but McCaffrey’s 27% target share is the differentiator. It’s tough to afford C-Mac around the industry, but he’s always great if you can get to him.
— Jimmy Garoppolo is hardly ever the most appealing QB play, but he sure does have some elite weaponry at his disposal. Deebo Samuel drew twice as many throws as Brandon Aiyuk in his return last week, while George Kittle found the end zone twice. Given Samuel’s occasional work in the running game, he looks quite a bit more appealing than Aiyuk at a comparable salary. Deebo’s just underpriced regardless at $6,900 on FanDuel. There are several different ways to stack the Niners’ offense, so finding the right combination can be a bit tricky.
— San Francisco has one of the best defenses in the league, which explains the Saints’ underwhelming 17 implied team total in this one. Andy Dalton has flashed the occasional big game since taking over for Jameis Winston, but I see no need to mess with such things in a brutal matchup on the road. If you do want anything in this passing game, one-offing Chris Olave (24% targets) in tournaments is a fine option. He’s relatively cheap, but wide receiver is an incredibly deep position on a massive slate. Juwan Johnson has 5 touchdowns in the last 4 games, but there are better value targets at TE.
— Alvin Kamara missed practice earlier in the week with illness, which puts his status for Sunday in question. Mark Ingram just returned to practice. If Kamara is out, maybe Ingram emerges as a decent punt play. The issue is the matchup is a brutal one, as the Niners rank third in DVOA against the run. Ingram’s also coming off a knee injury of his own. Kamara is a dicier high-end RB spend if he suits up. The role speaks for itself, but I’m not really going out of my way to jam a bunch of Saints into my lineups this week.
Strong Stack Options: Garoppolo + Samuel, Garoppolo + McCaffrey, Garoppolo + Samuel/Kittle
Favorite Prop Site Bet: Chris Olave o60.5 Receiving Yards (PrizePicks)