NFL DFS Picks and Analysis - Week 12: The Grind Down - Steelers vs. Colts

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, a fantasy football advice article for DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo. This DFS breakdown is a FAST and EFFICIENT preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the projections, projected ownership, picks, targets, and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.

Every game will be broken down with a DFS AND DFS Prop Site mentality. Betting lines are shown with projected team totals, spreads, and moneyline to give you an idea of the game environment. At the end of each section, we’ll deliver a DFS and Prop cheat sheet of props to bet, stacks to build, players to target, and low projected ownership plays that can make an impact on your weekly success.

Weekly Premium DFS Resources for This Game

Your Premium Tool Access: Use These in Combination With The Grind Down
LineupHQ: Lineup optimizer with integrated tools.
Projected Ownership: Expected draft percentage for each player.
All Best Bets for Underdog: For every player, game, and team.
All Best Bets for PrizePicks:
Expert Rankings: Consensus best plays.
Top Stacks: based on our simulations.

Sports Betting Lines and Overview

Indianapolis Colts DFS Breakdown

Team Projections

QB Team DKSal FDSal Proj Rank ProjAtt ProjYds
Matt Ryan IND $5,200 $7,100 13.29 QB30 34.09 190.92
RB Team DKSal FDSal Proj Rank ProjRu% ProjTar%
Jonathan Taylor IND $7,900 $8,800 17.67 RB10 81.82% 11.16%
Deon Jackson IND $5,000 $5,100 4.74 RB57 7.75% 8.36%
Zack Moss IND $4,000 $5,200 1.41 RB76 3.41% 2.20%
WR/TE Team DKSal FDSal Proj Rank ProjTar% ProjTar
Michael Pittman IND $6,000 $7,000 13.95 WR25 27.27% 9.30
Parris Campbell IND $4,300 $6,000 9.43 WR54 19.14% 6.53
Alec Pierce IND $3,500 $5,500 5.11 WR81 10.31% 3.51
Ashton Dulin IND $3,000 $4,500 2.35 WR108 4.38% 1.49
Keke Coutee IND $3,000 $4,700 0.27 WR152 0.85% 0.29
Mo Alie-Cox IND $2,600 $4,500 2.14 TE52 4.33% 1.48
Kylen Granson IND $2,800 $4,500 3.6 TE41 6.64% 2.26

Pittsburgh Steelers Projections Breakdown

Team Projections

QB Team DKSal FDSal Proj Rank ProjAtt ProjYds
Kenny Pickett PIT $5,100 $6,600 17.35 QB16 34.29 231.13
RB Team DKSal FDSal Proj Rank ProjRu% ProjTar%
Najee Harris PIT $5,800 $7,200 16.44 RB16 58% 15%
Benny Snell PIT $4,000 $4,600 3.05 RB68 19% 1%
Derek Watt PIT $4,000 $4,500 0.38 RB89 1% 1%
WR/TE Team DKSal FDSal Proj Rank ProjTar% ProjTar
George Pickens PIT $5,000 $6,600 16.26 WR10 27% 9.12
Diontae Johnson PIT $5,200 $6,100 9.88 WR51 18% 6.16
Steven Sims PIT $3,000 $5,000 4.89 WR85 10% 3.42
Gunner Olszewski PIT $3,000 $4,900 1.88 WR115 3% 1.13
Cody White PIT $3,000 $4,500 #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A
Pat Freiermuth PIT $4,000 $5,800 12.43 TE4 22% 7.56
Zach Gentry PIT $2,500 $4,200 2.02 TE56 4% 1.21
NFL DFS and Prop Site Analysis

— Steelers-Colts on Monday night? Sure, I guess! Indianapolis is a 2.5-point home favorite in this one, albeit with just a 21 implied team total. This game’s 39.5 over/under is the second-lowest of Week 12, as well.

— Matt Ryan is back in charge of this offense after Sam Ehlinger failed to impress, which is good news for the group of receivers. Ryan’s best days are certainly in the rearview mirror, but the Steelers (7th in DVOA) are tougher on the run. Michael Pittman has shown some signs of life since Ryan came back into the fold, while Parris Campbell has at least 5 targets in each of his last 3 games. Alec Pierce didn’t do much with his 8 targets last week, but 8 targets is a healthy share. In a game that figures to be low-scoring, plugging Pittman or Campbell into the captain slot on DraftKings sounds pretty appealing. Pierce ($5,200) is reasonably cheap. Quarterbacks typically look interesting on showdown slates, but I don’t think Ryan is a must, by any means.

Jonathan Taylor is the headliner here after picking up 22 carries in back-to-back games. He hasn’t been nearly as prolific as he was a season ago, but feeding JT will certainly be a huge part of Indy’s game plan. Taylor is the top projected play in this game, but I don’t think captaining him is a must, especially against a stingy run defense.

— The Steelers’ offense has been stuck in the mud all year, while Kenny Pickett has been hit-or-miss since taking the reins from Mitch Trubisky. Pittsburgh’s running game hasn’t been quite as reliable as Indy’s, so they may have to rely a bit more heavily on their QB to navigate them through this one. If you do want to roster one of the quarterbacks, I’d rather get to Pickett than Ryan. Diontae Johnson (25%) is the best bet to attract Pickett’s throws, but George Pickens has played a bigger role since Chase Claypool was shipped outta town. Steven Sims Jr. and Gunnar Olszewski are only tangentially involved, but you can do worse for just $200 on DraftKings. Pat Freiermuth (19% targets) has come on strong as the season has advanced, with at least 7 targets in 4 straight games. Captaining Freiermuth is a decent cash strategy for this one.

Najee Harris had a big game last week, which is the first time we’ve said that all season. His workload should be secure this week with Jaylen Warren looking very questionable as a result of a hamstring injury. We obviously can’t expect Harris to put 2 more touchdowns on the board in this game, but he’s still one of the more reliable options on the Pittsburgh side of things.

Strong Projections: Michael Pittman, Jonathan Taylor

Strong Stack Options: Pickett + Johnson/Pickens, Pickett + Johnson/Freiermuth, Ryan + Pittman, Ryan + Pittman/Campbell

Strong GPP Differentiators: Najee Harris, George Pickens, Kenny Pickett, Matt Ryan, Pat Freiermuth

Roster Construction Punts/Values: Parris Campbell, Alec Pierce, Steven Sims Jr., Gunnar Olszewski

Favorite Prop Site Bet: TBD (waiting on props to post)

About the Author

  • Taylor Smith (tcsmith031)

  • Taylor Smith is a native Texan (required by all fellow Texans to report this at all times) and a Southern California-based sports writer. He specializes in MLB and NBA while dabbling in a few other sports like a true degen when the other two are out of season. He has written about DFS in the past at Bang The Book, and you can find some of his previous work on SB Nation and FanRag Sports.

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