NFL DFS Picks and Analysis - Week 12: The Grind Down - Titans vs. Bengals

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, a fantasy football advice article for DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo. This DFS breakdown is a FAST and EFFICIENT preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the projections, projected ownership, picks, targets, and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.

Every game will be broken down with a DFS AND DFS Prop Site mentality. Betting lines are shown with projected team totals, spreads, and moneyline to give you an idea of the game environment. At the end of each section, we’ll deliver a DFS and Prop cheat sheet of props to bet, stacks to build, players to target, and low projected ownership plays that can make an impact on your weekly success.

Weekly Premium DFS Resources for This Game

Your Premium Tool Access: Use These in Combination With The Grind Down
LineupHQ: Lineup optimizer with integrated tools.
Projected Ownership: Expected draft percentage for each player.
All Best Bets for Underdog: For every player, game, and team.
All Best Bets for PrizePicks:
Expert Rankings: Consensus best plays.
Top Stacks: based on our simulations.

Sports Betting Lines and Overview

Tennessee Titans DFS Breakdown

Team Projections

QB Team DKSal FDSal Proj Rank ProjAtt ProjYds
Ryan Tannehill TEN $5,400 $7,100 14.46 QB29 28.03 214.40
RB Team DKSal FDSal Proj Rank ProjRu% ProjTar%
Derrick Henry TEN $8,300 $9,500 21.1 RB3 79.86% 8.21%
Dontrell Hilliard TEN $4,800 $5,100 6.61 RB46 10.60% 10.65%
Hassan Haskins TEN $4,000 $4,600 0.37 RB91 1.19% 0.49%
WR/TE Team DKSal FDSal Proj Rank ProjTar% ProjTar
Robert Woods TEN $4,700 $5,700 9.9 WR49 22.51% 6.31
Treylon Burks TEN $4,200 $5,900 10.97 WR38 19.19% 5.38
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine TEN $3,900 $5,400 5.98 WR80 12.61% 3.53
Cody Hollister TEN $3,000 $4,700 0.47 WR138 1.08% 0.30
C.J. Board TEN $3,000 $4,500 0.14 WR155 0.36% 0.10
Austin Hooper TEN $3,000 $5,000 6.92 TE22 14.52% 4.07
Chigoziem Okonkwo TEN $2,600 $4,500 4.18 TE37 8.09% 2.27

Cincinnati Bengals Projections Breakdown

Team Projections

QB Team DKSal FDSal Proj Rank ProjAtt ProjYds
Joe Burrow CIN $6,700 $8,600 19.87 QB8 36.95 290.80
RB Team DKSal FDSal Proj Rank ProjRu% ProjTar%
Samaje Perine CIN $5,600 $6,600 17.1 RB11 74% 11%
Chris Evans CIN $4,000 $4,800 4.79 RB52 9% 6%
Trayveon Williams CIN $4,000 $4,700 1.18 RB80 6% 1%
WR/TE Team DKSal FDSal Proj Rank ProjTar% ProjTar
Ja’Marr Chase CIN $7,600 $8,800 14.98 WR19 21% 7.73
Tee Higgins CIN $6,900 $8,200 16.83 WR10 24% 8.82
Tyler Boyd CIN $5,900 $6,700 12.3 WR33 18% 6.60
Trenton Irwin CIN $3,000 $5,100 1.02 WR124 2% 0.65
Trent Taylor CIN $3,000 $4,700 0.35 WR145 1% 0.25
Hayden Hurst CIN $3,300 $5,100 9.35 TE10 15% 5.48
Mitchell Wilcox CIN $2,500 $4,200 0.48 TE79 1% 0.33
NFL DFS and Prop Site Analysis

– Yet another low total. 43.5 with CIN at the -3 favorite should bode well for both workhorse RBs.

Derrick Henry needs no analysis. He’s had 30-plus opportunities in four of their last six games. He’s expensive, but that depresses him ownership, as people stack value at the position.

– We’ve seen CIN ride Joe Mixon (concussion) four times this season for 23-plus opportunities. With Mixon out, Samaje Perine is projected for quite the workload. It really isn’t crazy that the staff would give him peak Mixon volume. But we’re gonna need that, as TEN leads the league in run defense DVOA. Looking at massive ownership on Perine, Henry is a spend-up pivot, as people rarely play two RBs from the same game. But the easier pivot is the CIN passing game.

– If we’re not playing Henry of Perine, we’re betting on Joe Burrow to control the pace of this game against a beatable TEN pass defense. Burrow’s dropped back in four of their last five games, so CIN isn’t scared to do this. If Ja’Marr Chase (hip) plays, it will be a last-minute decision, which no one will play, so our decision is easy, as Chase averaged 10.6 targets per game before getting hurt. If he’s out, we have to stack with Tee Higgins, who has 27 targets in the three games without Chase.

– The TEN passing attack (if you can call it that) is a bunch of guys getting six or eight targets, depending on how the wind is blowing. There’s no reason to touch them on a nearly full-slate. We don’t need to bring back our CIN stack with this garbage.

Strong Projections: Derrick Henry, Samaje Perine, Ja’Marr Chase

Strong Stack Options: Joe Burrow + Ja’Marr Chase

Strong GPP Differentiators: Ja’Marr Chase

Roster Construction Punts/Values: Samaje Perine

Favorite Prop Site Bet: Robert Woods o37.5 receiving yards (PrizePicks)

About the Author

  • Alex Sonty (AlexSonty)

  • Alex Sonty is a professional DFS and poker player, while contributing to RotoGrinders and FanGraphs, as well as serving as a part-time political science professor in Chicago, IL. He’s been playing fantasy sports since 1996 and entered the DFS realm in 2014, currently playing high-stakes MLB and NFL cash games and GPPs. He is a Chicago Tribune and SB Nation alum, while holding a J.D./M.A. and L.L.M. from DePaul University.

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