NFL DFS Picks and Analysis - Week 12: The Grind Down - Titans vs. Bengals
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, a fantasy football advice article for DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo. This DFS breakdown is a FAST and EFFICIENT preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the projections, projected ownership, picks, targets, and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.
Every game will be broken down with a DFS AND DFS Prop Site mentality. Betting lines are shown with projected team totals, spreads, and moneyline to give you an idea of the game environment. At the end of each section, we’ll deliver a DFS and Prop cheat sheet of props to bet, stacks to build, players to target, and low projected ownership plays that can make an impact on your weekly success.
Weekly Premium DFS Resources for This Game
Your Premium Tool Access: Use These in Combination With The Grind Down
LineupHQ: Lineup optimizer with integrated tools.
Projected Ownership: Expected draft percentage for each player.
All Best Bets for Underdog: For every player, game, and team.
Expert Rankings: Consensus best plays.
Top Stacks: based on our simulations.
Sports Betting Lines and Overview
Tennessee Titans DFS Breakdown
Cincinnati Bengals Projections Breakdown
NFL DFS and Prop Site Analysis
– Yet another low total. 43.5 with CIN at the -3 favorite should bode well for both workhorse RBs.
– Derrick Henry needs no analysis. He’s had 30-plus opportunities in four of their last six games. He’s expensive, but that depresses him ownership, as people stack value at the position.
– We’ve seen CIN ride Joe Mixon (concussion) four times this season for 23-plus opportunities. With Mixon out, Samaje Perine is projected for quite the workload. It really isn’t crazy that the staff would give him peak Mixon volume. But we’re gonna need that, as TEN leads the league in run defense DVOA. Looking at massive ownership on Perine, Henry is a spend-up pivot, as people rarely play two RBs from the same game. But the easier pivot is the CIN passing game.
– If we’re not playing Henry of Perine, we’re betting on Joe Burrow to control the pace of this game against a beatable TEN pass defense. Burrow’s dropped back in four of their last five games, so CIN isn’t scared to do this. If Ja’Marr Chase (hip) plays, it will be a last-minute decision, which no one will play, so our decision is easy, as Chase averaged 10.6 targets per game before getting hurt. If he’s out, we have to stack with Tee Higgins, who has 27 targets in the three games without Chase.
– The TEN passing attack (if you can call it that) is a bunch of guys getting six or eight targets, depending on how the wind is blowing. There’s no reason to touch them on a nearly full-slate. We don’t need to bring back our CIN stack with this garbage.
Strong Stack Options: Joe Burrow + Ja’Marr Chase
Strong GPP Differentiators: Ja’Marr Chase
Roster Construction Punts/Values: Samaje Perine
Favorite Prop Site Bet: Robert Woods o37.5 receiving yards (PrizePicks)