NFL DFS Picks and Analysis - Week 13: The Grind Down - Patriots vs. Bills

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, a fantasy football advice article for DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo. This DFS breakdown is a FAST and EFFICIENT preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the projections, projected ownership, picks, targets, and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.

Every game will be broken down with a DFS AND DFS Prop Site mentality. Betting lines are shown with projected team totals, spreads, and moneyline to give you an idea of the game environment. At the end of each section, we’ll deliver a DFS and Prop cheat sheet of props to bet, stacks to build, players to target, and low projected ownership plays that can make an impact on your weekly success.

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Projected Ownership: Expected draft percentage for each player.
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Expert Rankings: Consensus best plays.
Top Stacks: based on our simulations.

Sports Betting Lines and Overview

New England Patriots DFS Breakdown

Team Projections

QB Team DKSal FDSal Proj Rank ProjAtt ProjYds
Mac Jones NEP $9,400 $13,500 15.03 QB22 35.35 228.73
RB Team DKSal FDSal Proj Rank ProjRu% ProjTar%
Rhamondre Stevenson NEP $10,400 $14,000 19.34 RB4 64.34% 18.34%
Pierre Strong NEP $200 $5,000 0.56 RB80 2.47% 0.54%
J.J. Taylor NEP $200 $6,000 5.34 RB50 21.46% 6.59%
WR/TE Team DKSal FDSal Proj Rank ProjTar% ProjTar
Jakobi Meyers NEP $7,200 $11,500 12.69 WR33 22.06% 7.80
DeVante Parker NEP $5,600 $8,000 6.02 WR74 10.96% 3.87
Nelson Agholor NEP $4,800 $6,500 4.9 WR86 8.62% 3.05
Kendrick Bourne NEP $2,200 $7,000 5.48 WR79 8.09% 2.86
Tyquan Thornton NEP $400 $7,500 1.97 WR107 4.34% 1.53
Hunter Henry NEP $4,600 $6,500 6.61 TE21 10.73% 3.79
Jonnu Smith NEP $1,400 $6,000 4.96 TE33 8.45% 2.99

Buffalo Bills Projections Breakdown

Team Projections

QB Team DKSal FDSal Proj Rank ProjAtt ProjYds
Josh Allen BUF $12,200 $17,500 24.44 QB1 38.03 268.87
RB Team DKSal FDSal Proj Rank ProjRu% ProjTar%
Devin Singletary BUF $7,000 $12,000 12.37 RB23 52% 8%
James Cook BUF $3,600 $7,500 5.7 RB49 15% 7%
Nyheim Hines BUF $3,000 $7,000 3.24 RB64 4% 5%
WR/TE Team DKSal FDSal Proj Rank ProjTar% ProjTar
Stefon Diggs BUF $11,600 $15,000 20.78 WR3 31% 11.85
Gabriel Davis BUF $8,000 $11,000 13.04 WR31 19% 7.41
Isaiah McKenzie BUF $6,800 $9,500 7.29 WR65 12% 4.59
Khalil Shakir BUF $200 $6,000 0.78 WR126 1% 0.52
Dawson Knox BUF $6,200 $8,500 9.59 TE9 13% 5.07
Quintin Morris BUF $800 $5,500 1.44 TE64 2% 0.81
NFL DFS and Prop Site Analysis

— It’s hard to believe Week 13 is already upon us and that Christmas is less than a month away, but here we are. We should have a good one on our hands on Thursday night, as the Patriots and Bills square off in Foxborough. The Patriots are coming off of a close loss to the Vikings, while the Bills narrowly escaped defeat against the Lions. Both teams are equally rested, as they both played on Thanksgiving. The spread for this game has been bet down to 3.5 points and the total is set at 43.5 points.

Mac Jones is coming off of his best game of the season. He threw for 382 yards and two touchdowns against the Vikings and finished with 26 DK points. Prior to that, he had been held under 14 fantasy points in six of seven starts. Quarterbacks are always viable on showdown slates, but Jones is far from a must start given his low floor and the fact that he is facing the Bills. While this defense is still missing key pieces in the secondary, they are still ranked seventh in DVOA against the pass.

Jakobi Meyers suffered a shoulder injury against the Vikings and was only able to play on 29% of the snaps. He’s expected to suit up for this game and as long as he doesn’t aggravate the injury, he should resume his WR1 role in this offense. After Meyers, it’s really a mixed bag when it comes to the Patriots receivers. DeVante Parker, Nelson Agholor, Kendrick Bourne, and Tyquan Thornton all compete for snaps and targets. Most teams have two or three receivers that see most of the snaps, but the Patriots have five. Meyers is the safest of the bunch, but Bourne and Thornton are awfully enticing at their price points on DraftKings. The Patriots also have a timeshare at tight end, although Hunter Henry (robbed of a second touchdown last week) has commanded a much larger target share than Jonnu Smith over the last few games.

Rhamondre Stevenson was already getting the lion’s share of touches in this backfield and now Damien Harris is set to miss time. When Harris missed two games earlier in the season, Stevenson played on 90% and 88% of the snaps. He has averaged over seven targets in the last five games and will continue to be heavily involved in the running game. A lot of this depends on how the game unfolds, but we can expect Stevenson to see 12-to-15 carries and 7-to-9 targets. J.J. Taylor and Pierre Strong will serve as the backups. While they are unlikely to see a lot of touches, they are only $200 each on DraftKings.

Josh Allen has not been as sharp through the air since sustaining his elbow injury, but he seems to be progressing in the right direction. He practiced in full on Monday for the first time since injuring his elbow and he still possesses elite rushing upside. He has topped 75 rushing yards in three of his last four games. A matchup against the Patriots is a difficult one (top seven in DVOA against the run and the pass), but we are talking about Allen on a single-game slate. He will be the highest owned Captain and MVP.

— Without their best cornerback last week, the Lions sold out to stop Stefon Diggs. This led to the biggest game of the season for Isaiah McKenzie. While he has earned the slot role in this offense, we shouldn’t expect him to garner 10 targets every week. Diggs is still the WR1 and Gabe Davis is still the WR2. Allen double stacks are firmly in play here, especially on DraftKings where there are a few viable players priced close to the stone minimum. Dawson Knox was seemingly the only tight end that didn’t score on Thanksgiving and is priced up a bit. I prefer the other three wideouts on a per-dollar basis, but Knox is certainly in play for tournaments.

— It felt like the Bills mixed in their backup running backs more against the Lions, but the numbers don’t lie — for the sixth straight game, Devin Singletary played on at least 72% of the snaps. He doesn’t get as many carries as most starting running backs and he doesn’t get a ton of work near the goal line, but he’s the most trusted running back on one of the best offenses in football. His price is certainly appealing for this showdown slate. I would only use James Cook if you are building a full Bills stack.

Strong Projections: Rhamondre Stevenson, Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, Devin Singletary

Strong Stack Options: Josh Allen + one or two wideouts

Strong GPP Differentiators: Jakobi Meyers, Hunter Henry, Gabe Davis, Isaiah McKenzie, Dawson Knox

Roster Construction Punts/Values: Nelson Agholor (FD), J.J. Taylor (DK), Kendrick Bourne (DK), Tyquan Thornton (DK),

Favorite Prop Site Bet: Josh Allen over 45.5 rushing yards (PrizePicks)

About the Author

  • Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

  • Derek Farnsworth, aka Notorious, is one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS, thanks in large part to the great advice he gives on a daily basis in’s Grind Down for NBA and MLB as well as the First Look column that gives a preview of the day’s games from a DFS perspective. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Masters Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in multiple sports. Farnsworth provides expert analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis during the NBA season and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards.

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