NFL DFS Picks and Analysis - Week 13: The Grind Down - Saints vs. Buccaneers
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, a fantasy football advice article for DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo. This DFS breakdown is a FAST and EFFICIENT preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the projections, projected ownership, picks, targets, and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.
Every game will be broken down with a DFS AND DFS Prop Site mentality. Betting lines are shown with projected team totals, spreads, and moneyline to give you an idea of the game environment. At the end of each section, we’ll deliver a DFS and Prop cheat sheet of props to bet, stacks to build, players to target, and low projected ownership plays that can make an impact on your weekly success.
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Projected Ownership: Expected draft percentage for each player.
All Best Bets for Underdog: For every player, game, and team.
Expert Rankings: Consensus best plays.
Top Stacks: based on our simulations.
Sports Betting Lines and Overview
Tampa Bay Buccaneers DFS Breakdown
New Orleans Saints Projections Breakdown
NFL DFS and Prop Site Analysis
— We’ve got a good old NFC South rivalry clash on tap for Monday Night Football. This matchup might’ve had the highest total on the slate a couple of years ago, but times have changed. The Bucs are 3.5-point favorites at home over the Saints in a game with a paltry over/under of 40.5 points.
— Andy Dalton is entrenched as the Saints’ QB1 at this point for…reasons? He hasn’t played particularly well, and New Orleans still likes to put Taysom Hill under center in certain red-zone situations. That obviously puts a limit on Dalton’s ceiling, and the Bucs have still been quite strong (7th in DVOA) on defense this season. Chris Olave (24%) has quickly established himself as the No. 1 guy in this passing attack, though Alvin Kamara (17%) remains heavily involved in that regard. We’ve also seen Juwan Johnson pop up as an end-zone threat for Dalton. Olave is the clear priority among WRs/TEs for the Saints, while Johnson has benefited heavily from finding the end zone. Jarvis Landry isn’t a bad PPR type of target on DK, while you can punt with a $1,400 Rashid Shaneen in tournaments.
— Not only does Hill thwart Dalton on occasion, but he’ll sap some red-zone carries from Kamara, too. Kamara is still heavily involved in the aerial attack, which is necessary considering running room may be hard to come by against this Tampa Bay defense. Hill almost never projects well on a median basis, but we’ve seen over the years he’s fully capable of randomly breaking a slate. That makes him the ultimate GPP wild card, especially on a showdown slate. Kamara projects as the top overall guy on the NOLA side of things, but this isn’t a prime spot, by any means.
— The Buccaneers have been a major disappointment this season, particularly on offense. They still throw the ball more than any other team in football (66.4% of their plays), but we haven’t seen many if any, vintage Tom Brady games all year. The Saints’ defense ranks right in the middle of the pack in overall DVOA (15th), but they’ve been a bit worse than average (21st) vs. the run. The one guy on this team we can always roster with some degree of confidence is Chris Godwin, who’s soaked up at least 10 targets in 5 of his last 6 games. When he’s on the field, Brady’s looking his way. Mike Evans is a little more boom/bust, but he’s also attracted at least 9 passes in 4 of his last 5 games. Godwin is pretty clearly ahead of Evans in the pecking order, especially in a PPR format, but I have no qualms with playing them together next to Brady in a stack on the showdown slate. Julio Jones would be next on the list ahead of either of the tight ends, as Julio’s target share is up to 11% since Week 8.
— Rachaad White fared well as a popular value last week, thanks in large part to nine catches on nine targets. Leonard Fournette practiced fully on Thursday, however, so White’s time in the limelight may be coming to an end. White has played his way into a bigger role as the season has progressed, but Fournette is still likely to be the lead back here when healthy. Given their similar salaries, I’ll continue to side with Fournette as the preferred option in this one.
Strong Stack Options: Brady + Godwin/Evans, Dalton + Olave/Kamara
Favorite Prop Site Bet: Chris Godwin o69.5 Receiving Yards (Underdog)