NFL DFS Picks and Analysis - Week 3: The Grind Down - 49ers vs. Packers

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, a fantasy football advice article for DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo. This DFS breakdown is an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the projections, projected ownership, picks, targets, and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.

Every game will be broken down with a DFS-first mentality. Betting lines are shown with projected team totals, spreads, and moneyline to give you an idea of the game environment. Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow. At the end of each section, we’ll deliver a DFS cheat sheet of stacks to build, players to target, and low projected ownership plays that can make an impact on your weekly success.

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GridironIQ: Stats and Data to help influence your projections
Projected Ownership: Expected draft percentage for each player.
Player Projections: For every player, game, and team.
Stats and Data App: Create custom GPP projections.
Expert Rankings: Consensus best plays.

Sports Betting Lines and Overview

San Francisco 49ers DFS Breakdown

Team Projections

QB Team DKSal FDSal YHSal Proj Rank ProjAtt ProjYds
Jimmy Garoppolo SFO $5,600 $6,600 $23 17 QB25 31.63 236.59
RB Team DKSal FDSal YHSal Proj Rank ProjRu% ProjTar%
Trey Sermon SFO $4,600 $5,400 $11 13.1 RB24 38.78% 8.80%
Jacques Patrick SFO $4,000 $4,500 $10 3 RB67 13.85% 0.68%
Kerryon Johnson SFO $4,000 $4,700 3.2 RB66 10.42% 2.46%
WR/TE Team DKSal FDSal YHSal Proj Rank ProjTar% ProjTar
Deebo Samuel SFO $6,700 $6,600 $22 17.2 WR16 25.86% 8.58
Brandon Aiyuk SFO $4,900 $5,500 $14 8 WR71 12.89% 4.28
Trent Sherfield SFO $3,300 $4,800 $10 7.1 WR78 13.46% 4.47
Mohamed Sanu SFO $3,200 $4,900 $10 3.5 WR106 6.37% 2.11
Jauan Jennings SFO $3,100 $4,700 $11 0.7 WR145 1.29% 0.43
George Kittle SFO $6,200 $6,000 $24 13.9 TE4 19.45% 6.45
Ross Dwelley SFO $2,500 $4,200 $10 1.2 TE64 1.97% 0.65
NFL DFS Analysis

The 49ers are really putting the statement “Running backs don’t matter” to the test early this season as they try to navigate through their latest injuries at the position. As of this writing, it looks like Trey Sermon, Jacques Patrick, Kerryon Johnson, and Trenton Cannon will be the active RBs for Sunday Night Football. We are currently projecting third-round rookie Trey Sermon to lead the backfield with a 38.78% rush share but I think there’s pretty significant upside here for him. Sermon has been with the team through training camp and the team has a more significant investment in the rookie. I would not be surprised if Sermon finished this game with a 60%+ rush share which would easily make him the top value play on this slate. On DraftKings, I wouldn’t be surprised if Sermon ends up being one of the highest owned CPT options as DFSers attempt to use his salary savings to jam in all three of Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams, and Aaron Jones. We are currently projecting Patrick slightly ahead of Johnson, which I agree with, but there is a decent amount of uncertainty on how RB duties will unfold behind Sermon. At their price tags it is ok to pair two SF RBs together in the same lineup. It’s also worth noting that Trey Lance seeing some sort of rushing share inside the Red Zone is certainly a possibility. However, Lance’s involvement is no guarantee and he’s double Sermon’s price on DraftKings – he is only $6,000 on FanDuel though :chin_scratch_emoji:

Game manager Jimmy Garoppolo enters Sunday’s unlikely to let it rip, averaging just 27.5 pass attempts per game after two games this season. When he has been trusted to throw the ball, Deebo Samuel (20) has seen the majority of his targets. Samuel has been efficient with his touches, totaling 290-yards and a touchdown. I was part of team Deebo >> Brandon Aiyuk before the season started but I never imagined there would be this big of a touch disparity after two games. Aiyuk did work his way to #3 on the team in routes run last week but was only targeted twice. He’s pretty clearly below Samuel and George Kittle in a low-volume passing attack but he still has the profile of being a player capable of breaking a long play – I like him quite a bit as a low-owned tournament option. Kittle’s volume (8 receptions, 9 targets) has also been a bit concerning. Kittle is just an “okay” play and I am not prioritizing him over Green Bay’s top options.

Strong Projections: Deebo Samuel, George Kittle

High Upside Correlations: None

Strong GPP Differentiators: Brandon Aiyuk

Roster Construction Punts/Values: Trey Sermon

My Expected Team Exposure: Medium

Green Bay Packers Projections Breakdown

Team Projections

QB Team DKSal FDSal YHSal Proj Rank ProjAtt ProjYds
Aaron Rodgers GBP $6,700 $7,700 $35 19.7 QB14 36.03 274.21
RB Team DKSal FDSal YHSal Proj Rank ProjRu% ProjTar%
Aaron Jones GBP $7,800 $6,900 $32 17.1 RB10 56% 13%
AJ Dillon GBP $3,800 $5,000 $15 7.6 RB45 29% 5%
Kylin Hill GBP $4,000 $4,600 $10 1.3 RB84 2% 2%
WR/TE Team DKSal FDSal YHSal Proj Rank ProjTar% ProjTar
Davante Adams GBP $8,300 $8,200 $34 20.4 WR3 29% 10.34
Marquez Valdes-Scantling GBP $4,000 $5,400 $14 9 WR65 15% 5.26
Allen Lazard GBP $3,500 $5,600 $10 4 WR103 6% 2.27
Randall Cobb GBP $3,400 $5,100 $11 5.7 WR89 10% 3.43
Amari Rodgers GBP $3,000 $4,600 $10 0.5 WR149 1% 0.29
Robert Tonyan GBP $4,400 $5,300 $16 9.6 TE11 14% 4.95
Marcedes Lewis GBP $2,500 $4,200 $10 1.2 TE64 2% 0.69
NFL DFS Analysis

Aaron Rodgers shook off the dust and looked as accurate as ever in Week 2, completing 22-of-27 passes for 255-yards and four touchdowns. An easy matchup against the Detroit Lions certainly didn’t hurt but he should also find success on Sunday night against a 49ers defense struggling with injuries. Rodgers’ target tree remained narrow and predictable with Davante Adams (9) and Aaron Jones (6) combining for 55.6% of his targets. Failing to top double-digit targets in either of the first two weeks, I would be surprised if he failed to hit that mark again in Week 3 and we currently have the WR1 projected for a 29% target share. Adams is my favorite high-priced CPT option. The pecking order of remaining Green Bay receivers kept the same last week with Marquez Valdes-Scantling leading the way followed by Allen Lazard, and Randall Cobb. MVS was unable to haul in any of his four targets last week and now just has three receptions for 17-yards on 12 targets. Still, he remains the best bet for a non-Adams/Jones splash play. Cobb is seeing the field sparingly but still has been more productive than Lazard. I wouldn’t be surprised if Cobb’s playing time started to trend up and I don’t mind taking shots on him in large-field tournaments.

Easily the biggest takeaway for me in Green Bay’s Week 2 game was that A.J. Dillon is not going to have the role I was hoping he would have. Dillon only carried the ball five times in a positive game script and barring some sort of Jones injury he seems to be drawing dead to any sort of Red Zone touches. Dillon’s overall lack of involvement as RB2 helps solidify Jones as one of the top plays in this game.

Strong Projections: Davante Adams, Aaron Jones

High Upside Correlations: Aaron Rodgers + Davante Adams + Aaron Jones

Strong GPP Differentiators: Robert Tonyan

Roster Construction Punts/Values: Mason Crosby, Marquez Valdes-Scantling

My Expected Team Exposure: Medium

About the Author

  • Dan Gaspar (MrTuttle05)

  • Playing DFS since early 2011, MrTuttle05 is an industry OG who has found success across multiple sports. He has qualified for countless live finals and takes pride in being able to adapt to the ever changing DFS landscape. You can find him on Twitter @MrTuttle05.

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