NFL DFS Picks and Analysis - Week 3: The Grind Down - Browns vs. Washington

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, a fantasy football advice article for DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo. This DFS breakdown is an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the projections, projected ownership, picks, targets, and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.

Every game will be broken down with a DFS-first mentality. Betting lines are shown with projected team totals, spreads, and moneyline to give you an idea of the game environment. Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow. At the end of each section, we’ll deliver a DFS cheat sheet of stacks to build, players to target, and low projected ownership plays that can make an impact on your weekly success.

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Sports Betting Lines and Overview


Cleveland Browns DFS Breakdown

Team Projections

QB Team DKSal FDSal YHSal Proj Rank ProjAtt ProjYds
Baker Mayfield CLE $5,700 $7,100 $23 17.67 QB21 33.54 247.82
RB Team DKSal FDSal YHSal Proj Rank ProjRu% ProjTar%
Nick Chubb CLE $6,900 $7,800 $25 13 RB20 54.00% 9.00%
Kareem Hunt CLE $6,100 $6,200 $13 12.67 RB21 40.00% 12.50%
D’Ernest Johnson CLE $4,000 $4,500 $10 0 RB94 0.01% 0.01%
WR/TE Team DKSal FDSal YHSal Proj Rank ProjTar% ProjTar
Odell Beckham CLE $6,300 $6,800 $22 14.74 WR16 29.00% 10.45
Jarvis Landry CLE $5,500 $5,800 $16 11.52 WR42 23.00% 8.29
Khadarel Hodge CLE $3,800 $4,500 $10 4.24 WR103 4.50% 1.62
Rashard Higgins CLE $3,000 $4,500 $10 1.84 WR121 1.00% 0.36
JoJo Natson CLE $3,000 $4,500 $10 0 WR154 0.01% 0.00
Austin Hooper CLE $4,400 $5,300 $18 9.69 TE17 15.00% 5.41
Harrison Bryant CLE $2,500 $4,200 $10 4.47 TE41 6.00% 2.16
Injuries to Monitor

TE David Njoku (Injured Reserve)

Running Game Outlook

Nick Chubb and Kareen Hunt seem to be in a gamescript-dependent timeshare. They’ve split snaps about 2:1 in favor of Chubb, but Hunt is getting all of the passing work. In Week 1 (a highly-negative gamescript), Hunt was on the field for 36 snaps to Chubb’s 35, with Hunt getting 17 touches to Chubb’s 11. In Week 2 (a mostly-positive gamescript), Chubb got 23 touches in 36 snaps to Hunt’s 12 in 20.

The backfield, as a whole, is getting used heavily. The Browns being favored by a 7.0 (7.5 at Pinnacle) around the industry suggests that this is another Chubb week, but THE BLITZ still likes both on DK a few days out. We should keep our eyes on a rising line that opened at -4.0.

Passing Game Outlook

In a positive gamescript, we can’t go to Baker Mayfield the way Cleveland is pounding the RBs, but we look up Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry. Coming from way behind in Week 1, Beckham had the edge in target share 34-to-24%; on top, in Week 2, Beckham had the huge 43-to-11% edge, but Mayfield only threw 23 times.

We shouldn’t put everything on the small sample within one game and go all-in on Beckham, throwing Landry out to dry. In quantity, we’re only talking about a six to three target difference between the two in Week 2. One swing from Beckham to Landry tightens the gap. But WRs make their own aDOT, the smart people tell me, so Beckham maintains a 12.9 to 10.8 edge, which is consistent with their aDOTs since 2018. They both have good projections for their prices on DK; Landry is free on FD. Austin Hooper is overpriced on DK, but free on FD. With no Njoku, he isn’t a strong play, but can be punted. Tread lightly, though, as this offense goes through the RBs and this should be a blowout.

Strong Projections: Nick Chubb

High Upside Correlations: None

Strong GPP Differentiators: Jarvis Landry, Kareem Hunt

Roster Construction Punts/Values: Austin Hooper (FD)

My Expected Team Exposure: Medium on the RBs, Low on WRs

Washington Football Team Projections Breakdown

Team Projections

QB Team DKSal FDSal YHSal Proj Rank ProjAtt ProjYds
Dwayne Haskins WAS $5,200 $6,600 $22 16.23 QB25 32.36 230.21
RB Team DKSal FDSal YHSal Proj Rank ProjRu% ProjTar%
Antonio Gibson WAS $4,700 $5,500 $18 10.95 RB29 54% 6%
J.D. McKissic WAS $4,000 $4,800 $13 7.19 RB47 25% 7%
Peyton Barber WAS $4,300 $5,100 $10 3.12 RB73 8% 2%
WR/TE Team DKSal FDSal YHSal Proj Rank ProjTar% ProjTar
Terry McLaurin WAS $5,900 $6,700 $23 13.5 WR22 28% 10.02
Steven Sims WAS $4,000 $4,900 $14 10.4 WR50 17% 6.08
Dontrelle Inman WAS $3,100 $4,700 $10 7.58 WR77 12% 4.29
Antonio Gandy-Golden WAS $3,200 $4,600 $10 1.91 WR120 3% 1.18
Cam Sims WAS $3,000 $4,500 $10 0.91 WR137 1% 0.32
Logan Thomas WAS $3,700 $4,900 $15 10.66 TE11 19% 6.80
Marcus Baugh WAS $2,500 $4,000 $10 2.11 TE55 4% 1.39
Injuries to Monitor

WR Steven Sims (Questionable)

Running Game Outlook

Antonio Gibson got some run last week with 13 rushes and two targets, despite a negative gamescript in 43 snaps (65%). My personal instincts say that’s on the higher end of his range of outcomes in what should be a blowout, but Gridiron IQ has him for a 54.0% market share of the rushes to the 24.8% of J.D. McKissic after McKissic saw eight rushes in Week 2. THE BLITZ hates both on FD, but loves McKissic’s punt value on DK, despite him being capped. Hard to trust either behind an OL ranking 30th in adjusted line yards per FO.

Passing Game Outlook:

Dwayne Haskins is gonna be throwing from behind. The reason why the final score of the Browns-Bengals game ended up close was because the Browns couldn’t hold onto the ball, so Cincy had it for nearly 34 minutes. That said, can Washington hold onto the ball and generate some garbage offense? They haven’t won the time of possession game in either of their contests, resulting in only 74 dropbacks for the QB. Not something to dwell on, but we should chew on it before punting Haskins.

Terry McLaurin and Logan Thomas, on the other hand, are gobbling up all of the little volume there is to eat. They just about split 57.6% of the target share in Week 2. McLaurin has a top-12 raw projection right now from THE BLITZ and Thomas is a great value on DK. Projected under 20 points by Vegas, though, we need to tread lightly because there won’t be many TDs to go around.

Strong Projections: Terry McLaurin, Logan Thomas

High Upside Correlations: None

Strong GPP Differentiators: None

Roster Construction Punts/Values: Logan Thomas, J.D. McKissic (DK)

My Expected Team Exposure: High on Thomas, Lower everywhere else

About the Author

  • Alex Sonty (AlexSonty)

  • Alex Sonty is a part-time political science professor at the City Colleges of Chicago and a professional DFS player. He’s been playing fantasy sports since Mark Brunell and Jimmy Smith paved the way to a rookie championship in 1996. He started playing DFS in 2014 and currently specializes in MLB and NFL cash games, dipping his toes into GPP play. He’s been writing for the Chicago Tribune, SB Nation, and Rotogrinders blog networks since 2010. He holds a J.D./M.A. and L.L.M. from DePaul University.

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