NFL DFS Picks and Analysis - Week 3: The Grind Down - Chiefs vs. Ravens

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, a fantasy football advice article for DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo. This DFS breakdown is an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the projections, projected ownership, picks, targets, and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.

Every game will be broken down with a DFS-first mentality. Betting lines are shown with projected team totals, spreads, and moneyline to give you an idea of the game environment. Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow. At the end of each section, we’ll deliver a DFS cheat sheet of stacks to build, players to target, and low projected ownership plays that can make an impact on your weekly success.

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Sports Betting Lines and Overview


Baltimore Ravens DFS Breakdown

Team Projections

QB Team DKSal FDSal YHSal Proj Rank ProjAtt ProjYds
Lamar Jackson BAL $13,000 $16,500 $40 25.84 QB1 32.46 239.00
RB Team DKSal FDSal YHSal Proj Rank ProjRu% ProjTar%
Mark Ingram BAL $6,800 $10,000 $17 12.06 RB25 33.00% 7.00%
J.K. Dobbins BAL $5,600 $9,500 $15 7.06 RB49 25.00% 3.50%
Gus Edwards BAL $1,600 $6,500 $14 3.73 RB65 14.00% 0.25%
WR/TE Team DKSal FDSal YHSal Proj Rank ProjTar% ProjTar
Marquise Brown BAL $8,400 $10,500 $21 14.23 WR17 25.00% 8.45
Miles Boykin BAL $3,400 $7,000 $10 9.59 WR63 17.00% 5.75
Willie Snead BAL $4,400 $8,000 $14 7.13 WR80 13.00% 4.40
Chris Moore BAL $200 $5,000 $10 0.57 WR144 1.00% 0.34
Devin Duvernay BAL $400 $6,000 $10 2.12 WR118 4.00% 1.35
Mark Andrews BAL $8,000 $12,000 $28 13.45 TE3 20.50% 6.93
Nick Boyle BAL $800 $5,000 $10 4.71 TE38 8.50% 2.87
Injuries to Monitor

No notable offensive injuries.

Running Game Outlook

Things we want our fantasy RBs to do: handle the majority of their team’s carries. Things the Baltimore RBs are unlikely to do: handle the majority of their team’s carries. The Ravens not only have an extremely ugly three-headed running back by committee but they also have the most mobile QB in the league stealing rushing opportunities away from them. After two weeks, here is what Baltimore’s carry distribution looks like: Lamar Jackson (23), Mark Ingram (19), Gus Edwards (14), J.K. Dobbins (9).

A messy backfield typically doesn’t bother me as it’s easily avoidable on a full-slate. However, when that team is highlighted on a single-game slate, things get a bit more complicated.

In cash games, I still think the ideal situation is to avoid this disaster unless you’re going cheap. It’s unlikely that either Ingram ($6,800) or Dobbins ($5,600) see enough opportunity to justify paying their price tags. Gus Edwards on the other hand…well, he’s a mere $1,600 on DraftKings and that type of salary relief is extremely valuable on a single-game slate that is absolutely top-loaded. I do think Edwards’ workload is almost completely unpredictable but that risk is also baked into his price tag. In tournaments, it’s not unreasonable to play some Russian Roulette in hopes that you get lucky and play the Baltimore RB that finds the end zone.

Passing Game Outlook

Thankfully for us, Baltimore’s passing-attack is much more fantasy-friendly. We knew heading into the season that Marquise Brown and Mark Andrews would account for the vast majority of Jackson’s targets and that has held true through the first two weeks. The big surprise has been Miles Boykin’s emergence as a nearly full-time player. Boykin (9) has many targets as Andrews (9) after two games and the two in combination with Brown account for over 61% of Baltimore’s targets. I am focusing almost entirely on these three guys in all formats and think they each make for strong plays at their individual price points. Boykin doesn’t have the same upside as Brown or Andrews but is notably only $3,400 on DK. Brown is my favorite CPT option on the slate.

If you’re playing large-field tournaments there is certainly some merit in grabbing exposure to Willie Snead and to a lesser extent, Nick Boyle.

Strong Projections: Lamar Jackson, Mark Andrews, Marquise Brown

High Upside Correlations: Lamar Jackson + Mark Andrews + Marquise Brown

Strong GPP Differentiators: Baltimore RB Russian Roulette ranked in the following order: Mark Ingram, J.K. Dobbins, Gus Edwards

Roster Construction Punts/Values: Miles Boykin

My Expected Team Exposure: High

Kansas City Chiefs Projections Breakdown

Team Projections

QB Team DKSal FDSal YHSal Proj Rank ProjAtt ProjYds
Patrick Mahomes KCC $12,000 $16,000 $38 23.42 QB2 35.80 285.00
RB Team DKSal FDSal YHSal Proj Rank ProjRu% ProjTar%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire KCC $7,800 $12,500 $34 15.98 RB12 60% 11%
Darrel Williams KCC $2,000 $6,500 $10 3.37 RB69 13% 3%
Darwin Thompson KCC $1,000 $5,500 $10 2.64 RB76 11% 1%
WR/TE Team DKSal FDSal YHSal Proj Rank ProjTar% ProjTar
Tyreek Hill KCC $9,200 $13,500 $27 16.43 WR5 23% 8.64
Sammy Watkins KCC $5,000 $8,500 $13 10.76 WR46 16% 6.15
Mecole Hardman KCC $4,600 $7,500 $10 5.91 WR93 9% 3.26
Demarcus Robinson KCC $3,000 $7,000 $10 6.7 WR85 11% 4.03
Byron Pringle KCC $600 $5,000 $10 0.67 WR142 1% 0.38
Travis Kelce KCC $10,000 $13,000 $29 17.48 TE1 25% 9.41
Nick Keizer KCC $200 $5,000 $10 1.38 TE64 1% 0.38
Injuries to Monitor

Sammy Watkins is in the concussion protocol. Darrel Williams was a full participant in Friday’s practice and should return to his RB2 role.

Running Game Outlook

Unlike Baltimore, there’s no confusion as to who is the leader in Kansas City’s backfield. Rooke Clyde Edwards-Helaire has played 94-of-146 offensive snaps and handled 35-of-46 Kansas City RB carries through the first two games. Edwards wasn’t quite as effective in the box score in Week 2 but saw an extremely encouraging 8 targets, catching 6 of them for 32 yards. CEH’s domination of backfield touches in combination with his involvement as a pass-catcher makes him one of the top overall plays on the slate in all formats. His $7,800 price tag on DraftKings is simply too cheap.

Passing Game Outlook:

Patrick Mahomes has been merely human over the two first weeks and now draws his toughest on-paper matchup of the season against a ridiculously good Baltimore pass defense. In terms of raw projection, Mahomes is still one of the top-two overall plays in the game, but it seems likely that optimal construction will force you to choose just one of Mahomes or Jackson. If that’s the case, I’m siding with Jackson.

After a quiet Week 1 buoyed by a touchdown, Tyreek Hill looked like he was in for another disappointing fantasy performance until he was bailed out by a late 54-yard touchdown. I don’t love this spot for him and think he makes a better tournament target than cash game option.

Travis Kelce is my preferred Kansas City pass-catcher and he draws a more favorable matchup than the receivers. The Ravens have allowed the fifth-most points to the TE position this season. Kelce is playable in all single-game formats.

I don’t have a ton of interest in Kansas City’s remaining pass-catchers unless Sammy Watkins is unable to pass the concussion protocol before Monday’s game. If he’s inactive, the dynamic MeCole Hardman should find himself with some more opportunities which would put him in play for tournaments. Demarcus Robinson is an uninspiring salary relief option.

Strong Projections: Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, Clyde Edwards-Helaire

High Upside Correlations: Patrick Mahomes + Travis Kelce + Tyreek Hill + Clyde Edwards-Helaire

Strong GPP Differentiators: Mecole Hardman

Roster Construction Punts/Values: Demarcus Robinson

My Expected Team Exposure: High

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About the Author

  • Dan Gaspar (MrTuttle05)

  • Playing DFS since early 2011, MrTuttle05 is an industry OG who has found success across multiple sports. He has qualified for countless live finals and takes pride in being able to adapt to the ever changing DFS landscape. You can find him on Twitter @MrTuttle05.

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