NFL DFS Picks and Analysis - Week 3: The Grind Down - Colts vs. Jets

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, a fantasy football advice article for DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo. This DFS breakdown is an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the projections, projected ownership, picks, targets, and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.

Every game will be broken down with a DFS-first mentality. Betting lines are shown with projected team totals, spreads, and moneyline to give you an idea of the game environment. Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow. At the end of each section, we’ll deliver a DFS cheat sheet of stacks to build, players to target, and low projected ownership plays that can make an impact on your weekly success.

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Sports Betting Lines and Overview

Indianapolis Colts DFS Breakdown

Team Projections

QB Team DKSal FDSal YHSal Proj Rank ProjAtt ProjYds
Philip Rivers IND $6,000 $7,000 $28 17.89 QB20 31.98 265.43
RB Team DKSal FDSal YHSal Proj Rank ProjRu% ProjTar%
Jonathan Taylor IND $7,000 $6,700 $27 16.34 RB10 64.00% 10.00%
Jordan Wilkins IND $4,000 $4,600 $10 3.66 RB66 19.00% 0.50%
Nyheim Hines IND $4,800 $5,300 $14 7.49 RB46 11.00% 11.00%
WR/TE Team DKSal FDSal YHSal Proj Rank ProjTar% ProjTar
T.Y. Hilton IND $5,600 $6,200 $19 12.9 WR29 22.00% 7.50
Michael Pittman IND $4,000 $5,000 $12 9.75 WR59 16.50% 5.63
Zach Pascal IND $4,500 $5,100 $10 10.18 WR55 17.00% 5.80
Daurice Fountain IND 1.38 WR154 1.50% 0.51
Ashton Dulin IND $3,000 $4,500 $10 1.27 WR132 1.50% 0.51
Jack Doyle IND $3,900 $5,200 $12 10.3 TE12 9.00% 3.07
Mo Alie-Cox IND $3,800 $5,000 $12 5.23 TE33 9.00% 3.07
Injuries to Monitor

RB Marlon Mack (Out)
WR Parris Cambell (Out)
TE Jack Doyle (Questionable)

Running Game Outlook

Jonathan Taylor is only averaging 3.5 YPC, but has 43 touches in 75 snaps, including 28 in 49 last week—the first full game without Marlon Mack. The Jets are probably the worst team in the NFL. The Colts are 11-point favorites (and rising fast). Philip Rivers has a long history of making RBs shine. Don’t think about what we paid last week. Just play Taylor.

Passing Game Outlook

I’ll start by taking the “L” on Philip Rivers last week. I played him in every single entry contest on both sites. We felt the pain together, if you listened to me. In a blowout similar to last week where Rivers only threw 25 times, we can’t expect more than around 30 attempts in Week 3.

With T.Y. Hilton slower and catching balls at a 43% rate and only playing 69% of the snaps; with Jack Doyle maybe coming back to push Mo Alie-Cox back down; with Nyheim Hines getting some fantasy-irrelevant passing work out of the backfield, we don’t know where to go. The touts are looking at Michael Pittman, who’ll draw ownership at the minimum price tag on both sites after seeing six targets last week, but that’s about all we can like, if Doyle plays.

If Doyle is out, it’s Alie-Cox szn. Just don’t waste him by stacking him with Rivers like I did.

Strong Projections: Jonathan Taylor, Colts DST

High Upside Correlations: Colts DST + Jonathan Taylor + Mo Alie-Cox (if Doyle is out)

Strong GPP Differentiators: None

Roster Construction Punts/Values: Michael Pittman, Mo Alie-Cox (if Doyle is out)

My Expected Team Exposure: Low, outside of Taylor; Medium, if Doyle is out because Mo Alie-Cox

New York Jets Projections Breakdown

Team Projections

QB Team DKSal FDSal YHSal Proj Rank ProjAtt ProjYds
Sam Darnold NYJ $5,000 $6,600 $20 15.25 QB31 32.37 220.91
RB Team DKSal FDSal YHSal Proj Rank ProjRu% ProjTar%
Frank Gore NYJ $4,400 $5,400 $10 11.67 RB27 44% 6%
La’Mical Perine NYJ $4,000 $4,700 $10 3.43 RB68 32% 7%
Kalen Ballage NYJ $4,000 $4,500 $10 3.37 RB69 14% 5%
WR/TE Team DKSal FDSal YHSal Proj Rank ProjTar% ProjTar
Chris Hogan NYJ $3,700 $5,000 $12 7.76 WR72 18% 6.43
Braxton Berrios NYJ $3,600 $5,100 $10 7.66 WR73 19% 6.61
Josh Malone NYJ $3,000 $4,500 $10 6.79 WR83 17% 5.89
#N/A NYJ #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A
#N/A NYJ #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A
Daniel Brown NYJ $2,500 $4,000 $10 1.84 TE57 5% 1.61
Chris Herndon NYJ $3,400 $5,000 $10 7.77 TE21 18% 6.25
Injuries to Monitor

RB Le’Veon Bell (Out)
RB Kalen Ballage (Questionable)
WR Breshad Perriman (Doubtful)
WR Jamison Crowder (Doubtful)
WR Chris Hogan (Questionable)

Running Game Outlook

Frank Gore is a bellcow and he’s my age. I’ve gained 50 pounds in the last five years after having a pretty sexy athletic body my whole life. Had kids, but nothing changed in my activity. If anything, I’m more active because of the kids. I don’t drink anymore. I just randomly got fat. Because I’m old. Old does bad things to the body. Don’t play Frank Gore.

Passing Game Outlook:

The Jets are hoping Dez Bryant is doing some socially-distanced pushups in someone’s driveway because there’s no one to throw to, which is why Gore is a bellcow. This team opened as 6.0-point dogs; they’re now up to 11 and rising at some books to 12. We’re not gonna insult your intelligence and break this down any further. You get it.

Strong Projections: None is an acceptable answer.

High Upside Correlations: None is an acceptable answer.

Strong GPP Differentiators: None is an acceptable answer.

Roster Construction Punts/Values: None is an acceptable answer.

My Expected Team Exposure: Digging

About the Author

  • Alex Sonty (AlexSonty)

  • Alex Sonty is a part-time political science professor at the City Colleges of Chicago and a professional DFS player. He’s been playing fantasy sports since Mark Brunell and Jimmy Smith paved the way to a rookie championship in 1996. He started playing DFS in 2014 and currently specializes in MLB and NFL cash games, dipping his toes into GPP play. He’s been writing for the Chicago Tribune, SB Nation, and Rotogrinders blog networks since 2010. He holds a J.D./M.A. and L.L.M. from DePaul University.


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