NFL DFS Picks and Analysis - Week 3: The Grind Down - Cowboys vs. Seahawks

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, a fantasy football advice article for DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo. This DFS breakdown is an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the projections, projected ownership, picks, targets, and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.

Every game will be broken down with a DFS-first mentality. Betting lines are shown with projected team totals, spreads, and moneyline to give you an idea of the game environment. Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow. At the end of each section, we’ll deliver a DFS cheat sheet of stacks to build, players to target, and low projected ownership plays that can make an impact on your weekly success.

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Sports Betting Lines and Overview


Seattle Seahawks DFS Breakdown

Team Projections

QB Team DKSal FDSal YHSal Proj Rank ProjAtt ProjYds
Russell Wilson SEA $7,300 #N/A $36 22.9 QB5 36.70 289.95
RB Team DKSal FDSal YHSal Proj Rank ProjRu% ProjTar%
Chris Carson SEA $6,600 #N/A $22 14.87 RB16 61.00% 11.00%
Carlos Hyde SEA $4,300 #N/A $12 6.7 RB50 21.20% 4.00%
Travis Homer SEA $4,000 #N/A $10 2.99 RB75 2.50% 3.90%
WR/TE Team DKSal FDSal YHSal Proj Rank ProjTar% ProjTar
D.K. Metcalf SEA $6,500 #N/A $24 15.71 WR11 23.50% 8.63
Tyler Lockett SEA $6,400 #N/A $22 15.81 WR9 24.00% 8.81
David Moore SEA $3,600 #N/A $10 7.61 WR76 11.00% 4.04
Freddie Swain SEA $3,000 #N/A $10 2.94 WR113 4.00% 1.47
Penny Hart SEA $3,000 #N/A $10 0.73 WR140 0.50% 0.18
Greg Olsen SEA $4,200 #N/A $11 6.8 TE26 9.80% 3.60
Will Dissly SEA $3,000 #N/A $10 5.66 TE31 8.10% 2.97
Injuries to Monitor

No notable offensive players expected to miss.

Running Game Outlook

Chris Carson has strung together two solid fantasy starts to the season and is the ultimate leverage play this week in large-field tournaments. I expect heavy ownership to come in on Russell Wilson and his pass-catchers while the less flashy Carson continues to fly under the radar a bit.

I am still not completely sure how the RB touches will be distributed on a weekly basis as both Carlos Hyde and to a lesser extent Travis Homer project to steal some time from Carson. We currently have Carson projected for a 61% rush share and an 11% target share. Hyde is next in line with a 21% rush share and 4% target share. Neither Hyde nor Homer are playable in any DFS format but their involvement in the offense does theoretically cap Carson’s upside. Despite being a strong game theory play, I’m unlikely to have any exposure to Carson this week.

Passing Game Outlook

Let. Russ. Cook. Russell Wilson has been unreal through two starts this season throwing for a total of 610 yards and 9 touchdowns. While Wilson’s number of passing attempts per game doesn’t look a whole lot different than last season, the Seahawks have been more aggressive passing the ball in early down situations and Wilson has unsurprisingly rewarded the more forward-thinking play-calling with excellent efficiency. Wilson needs a competitive back and forth game to truly unlock his fantasy upside and he may get just that this Sunday against a Cowboys team that wants to win by outscoring its opponents. Mike McCarthy was quoted as saying, “We want to score as fast as we can, and as many times as we can.” That sounds like a dream scenario for Wilson and his pass-catchers as long as Seattle doesn’t jump out to an early lead and decide to play keep away.

The nice thing about the Seahawks passing attack is that it is extremely concentrated and as a result it is fairly predictable. Tyler Lockett leads the team with a 26.67% target share while Metcalf is second in line with a 23.33% target share. I wouldn’t be surprised if Lockett and Metcalf ended up accounting for closer to a 60% share of the team’s targets when the season is over – Chris Carson has a 15% target share through the first two weeks and I would expect that to drop some. Both Lockett and Metcalf are excellent plays in all formats this week. Metcalf has buoyed his fantasy production with a touchdown in each of the first two weeks while Lockett found paydirt last week. I slightly prefer Lockett in PPR formats but don’t think you can go wrong with either one. Double-stacking Lockett and Metcalf with Wilson is a completely viable GPP strategy.

Strong Projections: Russell Wilson, D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett

High Upside Correlations: Russell Wilson + D.K. Metcalf + Tyler Lockett

Strong GPP Differentiators: Chris Carson

Roster Construction Punts/Values: Metcalf and Lockett are relatively inexpensive on FanDuel

My Expected Team Exposure: High

Dallas Cowboys Projections Breakdown

Team Projections

QB Team DKSal FDSal YHSal Proj Rank ProjAtt ProjYds
Dak Prescott DAL $7,200 #N/A $34 21.49 QB7 39.04 285.99
RB Team DKSal FDSal YHSal Proj Rank ProjRu% ProjTar%
Ezekiel Elliott DAL $8,300 #N/A $37 21.95 RB4 68% 16%
Tony Pollard DAL $4,300 #N/A $10 5.39 RB58 15% 4%
Rico Dowdle DAL $4,000 #N/A $10 0.66 RB88 1%
WR/TE Team DKSal FDSal YHSal Proj Rank ProjTar% ProjTar
Amari Cooper DAL $6,500 #N/A $25 15.82 WR8 25% 9.96
Michael Gallup DAL $5,500 #N/A $20 13.24 WR23 20% 8.13
CeeDee Lamb DAL $5,400 #N/A $21 12.37 WR35 19% 7.52
Noah Brown DAL $3,000 #N/A $10 1.49 WR128 2% 0.61
Cedrick Wilson DAL $3,000 #N/A $10 0.72 WR141 1% 0.28
Dalton Schultz DAL $4,500 #N/A $10 10.03 TE15 13% 5.08
Blake Bell DAL $3,200 #N/A $10 2.87 TE48 3% 1.22
Injuries to Monitor

No notable offensive players expected to miss.

Running Game Outlook

Ezekiel Elliott was a few goal-line carries away from an absolutely monster Week 2 performance against the Falcons in which he totaled 122 yards and scored a touchdown. Prescott ended up being the beneficiary of the Cowboys’ Week 2 goal-line opportunities but that’s liable to change on a weekly basis.

Elliott’s elite usage makes him one of the top RB options on a weekly basis and that isn’t any different this week. We currently have Elliott projected for a 68% rush share and a 16% target share which makes him the overall RB4 on the week. He’s an excellent play in all formats. I do currently have Elliott ranked behind Jonathan Taylor, Kenyan Drake, and Miles Sanders on a point-per-dollar basis but I wouldn’t at all be surprised if he came away as the highest-scoring RB.

Tony Pollard has yet to live up to his pre-season hype, totaling just 7 touches over the first two games of the season. He isn’t relevant in any DFS format until he sees an uptick in usage.

Passing Game Outlook:

After a disappointing Week 1 performance, Dak Prescott rebounded with a monster Week 2 performance on the back of 450 passing yards and 3 rushing touchdowns. While it’s safe to say we shouldn’t expect 3 rushing TDs from Prescott on a weekly basis, last week’s performance does help highlight the type of upside Prescott can add on the ground with his mobility. Rushing aside, Prescott’s 450 passing yards were impressive as he spread the ball around to 8 different receivers.

With Blake Jarwin sidelined, Dalton Schultz led the team with 10 targets last week. He caught 9 of those targets for 88-yards and a touchdown. I wouldn’t expect double-digit targets for Schultz moving forward but it is notable that the Seahawks struggled to defend the TE position last season, allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to the position. Despite the favorable matchup, I am not overly interested in investing too much in Schultz on DraftKings where he saw his price jump up to $4,500. I like him better on FanDuel where he is $4,900.

After two games, Amari Cooper leads the team with a 27.71% target share. He has provided useful PPR performances in each of the first two weeks despite not scoring a touchdown. While I think he’s a strong overall play, his price tag makes him more of a tournament option than a cash game target.

Rookie Ceedee Lamb is second on the team with an 18.07% target share and is coming off his first career 100+ yard receiving game. Lamb gets the best on-paper matchup in the slot for the Cowboys and is a solid option in all formats due to a still too cheap price tag.

Michael Gallup has “struggled” to start the season but is still the Cowboys #1 deep threat which makes him liable to pop off on any given week. Expected to be the lowest owned receiving option, Gallup makes for an excellent leverage play in large-field tournaments.

Strong Projections: Dak Prescott, Amari Cooper, Cedee Lamb, Ezekiel Elliott

High Upside Correlations: Dak Prescott + Amari Cooper + Ceedee Lamb + Michael Gallup + Ezekiel Elliott (I wouldn’t stack more than two players with Dak)

Strong GPP Differentiators: Michael Gallup, Dalton Schultz

Roster Construction Punts/Values: Ceedee Lamb

My Expected Team Exposure: High

About the Author

  • Dan Gaspar (MrTuttle05)

  • Playing DFS since early 2011, MrTuttle05 is an industry OG who has found success across multiple sports. He has qualified for countless live finals and takes pride in being able to adapt to the ever changing DFS landscape. You can find him on Twitter @MrTuttle05.

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