NFL DFS Picks and Analysis - Week 3: The Grind Down - Titans vs. Raiders
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, a fantasy football advice article for DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo. This DFS breakdown is a FAST and EFFICIENT preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the projections, projected ownership, picks, targets, and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.
Every game will be broken down with a DFS AND DFS Prop Site mentality. Betting lines are shown with projected team totals, spreads, and moneyline to give you an idea of the game environment. At the end of each section, we’ll deliver a DFS and Prop cheat sheet of props to bet, stacks to build, players to target, and low projected ownership plays that can make an impact on your weekly success.
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LineupHQ: Lineup optimizer with integrated tools.
Projected Ownership: Expected draft percentage for each player.
All Best Bets for Underdog: For every player, game, and team.
Expert Rankings: Consensus best plays.
Top Stacks: based on our simulations.
Sports Betting Lines and Overview
Tennessee Titans DFS Breakdown
Las Vegas Raiders Projections Breakdown
NFL DFS and Prop Site Analysis
— Is anyone excited for this game? Even Raiders and Titans fans might be looking for another game to watch on Sunday. Kidding aside, it’s been a disappointing start for both of these teams. The Titans were right there with the Colts as favorites to win the AFC South and the Raiders had high hopes after bringing in Josh McDaniels and Davante Adams. Neither team can afford to be 0-3 to start the season, so this is an important game for both ball clubs. These aren’t teams that are looking to push the tempo and both lean on the run, so it’s no surprise to see the total sitting at only 45.5 points.
— Mike Vrabel has always been able to get the most out of his teams, but it’s been a rough start for the Titans. The offense has sputtered and the defense no longer looks like a top 10 unit. Without A.J. Brown, Ryan Tannehill has really struggled with his efficiency — we saw this dip last season after Arthur Smith left and that has continued in the first two games of this season. He doesn’t have the best weapons and this is a run-first team. It’s been a crazy start for Treylon Burks, as he was everyone’s favorite value in season-long leagues at one point, then everyone was worried he was barely going to see the field, and now it’s starting to look like he could be the WR1 for the Titans. In Week 2, he played on 45% of the snaps and caught 4-of-6 targets for 47 yards. That doesn’t seem like much, but there was little production to be had against the Bills. He’s not cheap enough to where I’m ready to take a flier on him in DFS, but he’s a player to monitor. The rest of the passing game can be avoided.
— Derrick Henry still looks great when he’s running downhill, but he doesn’t seem to have the same running lanes as he’s had for most of his career. The Titans have been average at best when it comes to run-blocking in the first two games and he’s only been able to muster up 3.1 yards per carry. He has yet to record a reception and only has one target through two games. It’s too early to say that Henry is washed, but there are certainly a lot of red flags. The Raiders have been stout against the run thus far, ranking sixth in rush defense DVOA. Henry is always viable in large-field tournaments, but doesn’t carry the same floor as the other running backs he’s priced around.
— The Raiders are a couple of plays away from being 2-0 and looking like a real threat in the AFC West. Unfortunately, they are now well behind the eight-ball. Derek Carr doesn’t offer much rushing upside at this stage of his career, but he has one of the best cast of weapons in football. He’s a very safe option at quarterback this week against a Titans team that is 26th in rush defense DVOA this season. After breaking the slate in Week 1, Adams was nowhere to be found in Week 2. This could be an issue on a weekly basis given the wealth of options Carr has at his disposal, but there is no denying his upside. With Hunter Renfrow (concussion) potentially out this week, we could see Adams get peppered with targets against a beatable secondary. Darren Waller has racked up 27% of his team’s air yards, which is the second highest mark of any tight end in football. He’s viable in DFS each and every week and could get lost in the shuffle at the tight end position.
— Josh Jacobs has always been a good runner, but the lack of pass game involvement has hurt his fantasy production for years. Through the first two games of the season, he has only seen two targets. He’s still likely to get somewhere in the range of 14-16 carries in this game and could easily find the endzone, but his path to success is more narrow than other running backs. I will note that the Raiders have a significant advantage in this matchup, as their offensive line is seventh in adjusted line yards and the Titans defensive line is 23rd in adjusted line yards.
Strong Projections: Davante Adams
Roster Construction Punts/Values: N/A
Favorite Prop Site Bet: Davante Adams over 6.5 receptions