NFL DFS Picks and Analysis Week 6: The Grind Down

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, a fantasy football advice article for DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo. This DFS breakdown is an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the projections, projected ownership, picks, targets, and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.

NOTE: Games will be published as they are completed.

Every game will be broken down with a DFS-first mentality. Betting lines are shown with projected team totals, spreads, and moneyline to give you an idea of the game environment. Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow. At the end of each section, we’ll deliver a DFS cheat sheet of stacks to build, players to target, and low projected ownership plays that can make an impact on your weekly success.

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Sports Betting Lines and Overview

New England Patriots DFS Breakdown

Team Projections

QB Team DKSal FDSal YHSal Proj Rank ProjAtt ProjYds
Cam Newton NEP $6,500 $8,000 $33 21.62 QB6 34.83 230.00
RB Team DKSal FDSal YHSal Proj Rank ProjRu% ProjTar%
Damien Harris NEP $5,000 $5,600 $17 8.94 RB32 44.00% 2.00%
Rex Burkhead NEP $4,600 $5,600 $16 7.93 RB38 25.00% 5.50%
James White NEP $4,800 $5,200 $16 11.4 RB25 7.50% 17.00%
WR/TE Team DKSal FDSal YHSal Proj Rank ProjTar% ProjTar
Julian Edelman NEP $5,600 $6,200 $20 14.4 WR25 23.00% 8.42
N’Keal Harry NEP $4,500 $5,400 $16 11.63 WR41 20.00% 7.32
Damiere Byrd NEP $3,500 $5,100 $12 10.23 WR53 17.00% 6.22
Jakobi Meyers NEP $3,000 $4,500 $10 1.06 WR114 2.00% 0.73
Gunner Olszewski NEP $3,000 $4,500 $10 0.28 WR127 0.50% 0.18
Ryan Izzo NEP $2,700 $4,100 $10 5.69 TE26 10.00% 3.66
Devin Asiasi NEP $2,500 $4,000 $10 1.73 TE48 3.00% 1.10
Injuries to Monitor

No offensive injuries.

Running Game Outlook

Damien Harris was activated off IR in Week 4 and immediately led New England running backs with 17 carries for 100-yards. Harris was an absolute zero as a pass-catcher, running just 3 routes and not seeing a single target. Despite showing plenty of pass-catching ability in college, Harris is unlikely to see much action as a receiver as long as Rex Burkhead and James White are active.

James White returned to action in Week 4 and Rex Burkhead’s fantasy value took the biggest hit as he ran just 11 routes and caught his only target for 5 yards. For context, Burkhead saw 16 total targets in the two weeks prior. Essentially relegated to backup duties as both a rusher and a pass-catcher, Burkhead is largely avoidable in all formats.

Similar to past seasons, White’s fantasy value is at its highest when the Patriots are playing from behind. That seems unlikely to be the case against Denver, which makes White a better game script dependent tournament target than a cash game commodity. If looking to roster a Patriots RB in large-field tournaments, Harris is your best bet.

Passing Game Outlook

There isn’t an offense in the league that is more dependent on who their starting quarterback is. We saw that in Week 4 with Cam Newton sidelined. Thankfully for New England’s offense, Newton is expected back for this game against the Broncos.

If Newton does start, we can fully expect the Patriots to run the ball as often as possible. In the two games New England won with Cam under center, he averaged just 23.5 passing attempts per game and 158.5 passing yards. That’s a huge downgrade in expected volume for New England pass-catchers.

It is worth noting that this is a good on paper matchup for New England’s passing attack. While I think it’s still unlikely we see a massive influx in passing volume, New England receivers can be targeted independently as low-owned tournament targets. I still prefer being price-sensitive to New England pass-catchers as I don’t think any of them will see enough volume to target aggressively. My point-per-dollar order of preference is Damiere Byrd, Julian Edelman, and N’Keal Harry.

Strong Projections: Cam Newton

High Upside Correlations: None

Strong GPP Differentiators: Julian Edelman

Roster Construction Punts/Values: Damiere Byrd

My Expected Team Exposure: Low

Denver Broncos Projections Breakdown

Team Projections

QB Team DKSal FDSal YHSal Proj Rank ProjAtt ProjYds
Drew Lock DEN $5,400 $6,700 $23 13.92 QB28 36.60 219.99
RB Team DKSal FDSal YHSal Proj Rank ProjRu% ProjTar%
Melvin Gordon DEN $6,000 $6,600 $19 14.54 RB19 53% 12%
Phillip Lindsay DEN $4,300 $5,100 $16 7.78 RB39 31% 7%
Royce Freeman DEN $4,000 $4,900 $10 2.32 RB66 10% 2%
WR/TE Team DKSal FDSal YHSal Proj Rank ProjTar% ProjTar
Tim Patrick DEN $4,500 $5,400 $13 10.86 WR48 20% 7.27
DaeSean Hamilton DEN $3,000 $4,700 $10 5.84 WR81 12% 4.47
Jerry Jeudy DEN $5,500 $5,700 $18 11.81 WR40 22% 8.20
Tyrie Cleveland DEN $3,000 $4,500 $10 0.1 WR134 0% 0.09
Diontae Spencer DEN $3,000 $4,500 $10 1.57 WR110 3% 1.12
Noah Fant DEN $5,400 $5,800 $19 10.78 TE10 20% 7.46
Jake Butt DEN $3,000 $4,400 $10 1.51 TE52 3% 1.12
Injuries to Monitor

Melvin Gordon (Possible Suspension for DUI). Noah Fant (ankle) is questionable.

Running Game Outlook

NOTE: Melvin Gordon was arrested Tuesday night for a DUI. Gordon was back practicing on Thursday and it seems likely he’ll suit up against the Patriots with any possible suspension being issued later in the season.

After a massive Week 4 performance on Thursday night against the Jets, we’ll need to temper our expectations for Melvin Gordon a little bit with Phillip Lindsay expected back. Gordon saw a ridiculous 88% of the teams RB carries in Week 4 which isn’t something we should bank on against the Patriots. Something in the 60% range is a much more reasonable expectation and we’re currently projecting him for an even lower rush share at 53%. MG3 takes a big enough hit with Lindsay back that I’m not really interested in rostering him in any formats.

We currently have Lindsay projected for a 31% rush share and 7% target share. That’s simply not a big enough workload for him to be an attractive fantasy option, even at a decreased price tag. However, both of those projections would take a big jump if Gordon does miss this week due to his arrest. If Gordon is inactive, Lindsay immediately becomes one of the top point-per-dollar RB options on the slate.

Passing Game Outlook:

The Broncos will get a boost to their passing attack this week with Drew Lock expected back under center. There’s also a chance that Noah Fant, who is dealing with an ankle injury, is active. Fant’s status is critical in determining target share for the Broncos as he’s currently second on the team with a 20% target share through four weeks. Jerry Jeudy currently leads the team with 28 targets (a 21% target share) and would be in line for more volume if Fant is inactive. Tim Patrick ranks third on the team in target share (15%) and would be the other beneficiary if Fant is inactive.

Regardless of Fant’s status, I want very little, if any, exposure to this Denver passing attack. Offenses facing the Patriots are averaging just 57.3 plays per game this season, which is the second-fewest in the league. As nearly 10-point home favorites, I don’t expect New England to have any difficulty controlling the clock and limiting Denver’s offensive opportunities.

Strong Projections: None

High Upside Correlations: None

Strong GPP Differentiators: None

Roster Construction Punts/Values: Phillip Lindsay (if Gordon inactive)

My Expected Team Exposure: Low

Written by MrTuttle

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