NFL DFS Picks and Analysis Week 7: The Grind Down
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, a fantasy football advice article for DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo. This DFS breakdown is an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the projections, projected ownership, picks, targets, and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.
NOTE: Games will be published as they are completed. Main slate matchups will be live by Friday evening.
Every game will be broken down with a DFS-first mentality. Betting lines are shown with projected team totals, spreads, and moneyline to give you an idea of the game environment. Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow. At the end of each section, we’ll deliver a DFS cheat sheet of stacks to build, players to target, and low projected ownership plays that can make an impact on your weekly success.
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Expert Rankings: Consensus best plays.
Sports Betting Lines and Overview
New York Jets DFS Breakdown
Injuries to Monitor
Sam Darnold (Questionable)
Breshad Perriman (Questionable)
Jamison Crowder (Questionable)
Running Game Outlook
The Jets are the only team in the NFL without a win this season and their point differential (-110) is twice as bad as the next closest team (-56 for the Jaguars). After releasing Le’Veon Bell, a bad run game got even worse. Here is how the backfield split ended up in Week 6:
La’Mical Perine: – 41 snaps, 7 carries, 3 targets, and 5.6 fantasy points.
Frank Gore: – 25 snaps, 11 carries, 4 targets, and 11 fantasy points.
While Gore continues to fight off Father Time and while he was more productive than Perine last week, the Jets have very little use for a veteran running back. If Perine is going to see more snaps each week, he’ll be the preferred fantasy option. In terms of Week 7, both are easy fades when it comes to DFS. The Bills have actually been a nice matchup for running backs (24th in DVOA against the run and 21st in defensive adjusted line yards), but the Jets are large underdogs and have the lowest implied team total of the slate.
Passing Game Outlook
Sam Darnold is still listed as questionable, but he returned to practice on Wednesday and reportedly “looked good.” Perhaps that is subjective, as the Jets quarterbacks have been nothing short of atrocious this season. This is the only team that has yet to score 100 points on the season and there’s a good chance they don’t get there for another week or two (currently at 75). I will note that this is a good spot for Darnold if he does draw the start. The Bills are ranked 28th in DVOA against the pass and home underdog quarterbacks generally exceed salary-based expectations. Personally, I see more risk than upside here whether it’s Darnold or Joe Flacco under center.
The one and only constant in the Jets offense has been Jamison Crowder. He has seen at least 10 targets and seven receptions in all four of the games he has played this season. During that stretch, he has racked up 383 receiving yards and three touchdowns. To put his production into perspective, he has averaged more fantasy points (DK scoring) than DeAndre Hopkins, DK Metcalf, and Davante Adams this season. Crowder runs most of his routes from the slot, so he should be able to avoid coverage from Tre’Davious White for most of the game. I know it feels gross clicking on the name of a Jets player, but he’s viable in all formats.
Breshad Perriman returned to the lineup last week and had his best game of the season, catching 4-of-8 targets for 62 yards. Unfortunately, a ceiling of 10 fantasy points isn’t exactly what we are looking for from our receivers. There’s also a good chance he sees coverage from White, who is one of the best cornerbacks in football. Even with Perriman back, Jeff Smith still played on 85% of the snaps. He leads the team in air yards per game and is still priced at the bare minimum on DraftKings ($3,000) if you want to throw him into your MME player pool. Chris Herndon should be avoided regardless, but that becomes an easier decision if star linebacker Matt Milano is able to suit up for the Bills.
Strong Projections: None
High Upside Correlations: None
Strong GPP Differentiators: Jamison Crowder
Roster Construction Punts/Values: Jeff Smith (DK MME)
My Expected Team Exposure: Low
Buffalo Bills Projections Breakdown
Injuries to Monitor
John Brown (Questionable)
Dawson Knox (Questionable)
Running Game Outlook
From a statistical standpoint, the Jets have been worse against the pass (31st in DVOA) than the run (14th in DVOA), but that doesn’t take into account game script. Teams facing the Jets have played with huge leads and have been able to rack up 125 yards per game on the ground against them. Basically, this matchup sets up a lot better for Josh Allen and the passing game, but the likely game script sets up better for Devin Singletary and the running game.
It will be interesting to see if Zack Moss has a bigger role this week, as he only played on 25% of snaps in his first week back from a toe injury. Singletary will have a lot more fantasy appeal moving forward if he’s going to see two-thirds of the work in this backfield. One major problem is that the best goal line back in this offense is the quarterback. I’ll take a wait and see approach on this backfield for now.
Passing Game Outlook:
Josh Allen has been one of the best quarterbacks in fantasy football this season, averaging 28 fantasy points per game. He has cooled off a bit over the last two games, but they were outclassed against the Titans and then he had to deal with heavy rain against the Chiefs. His rushing upside gives him a high floor and he was able to rack up 33 fantasy points against the Jets in Week 1. New York is a tremendous matchup for opposing passing attacks, ranking 31st in DVOA against the pass, 20th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, and 22nd in adjusted sack rate.
The concern for the Bills passing attack is that they build a lead early and coast to a win without needing to air it out much in the second half. This takes Allen and his receivers off my radar for cash games. However, game script doesn’t always go as planned. The Jets could randomly find a way to a lead early or the Bills could choose to keep their foot on the gas the entire game. It’s certainly a great matchup, so there is plenty of interest in Allen and these receivers for tournaments. Stefon Diggs leads the team in targets (43), receptions (32), receiving yards (449), air yards (497), and touchdowns (3). He should have no issue getting open against this secondary.
While Diggs is the obvious pairing with Allen, John Brown could be that sub-5% play that is needed to win large-field tournaments. In his first game back from a knee injury, he played on 51 of 53 possible snaps. He put up a bagel in the effort, but his playing time was encouraging. He’s a deep threat that is cheap and getting overlooked in tournaments. Cole Beasley continues to man the slot and rookie Gabriel Davis should play around 60% of the snaps. If Dawson Knox is unable to suit up again, Tyler Kroft could make an interesting streamer on DraftKings ($3,100). The Jets have allowed the second most fantasy points to tight ends this season.
Strong Projections: None
Strong GPP Differentiators: John Brown
My Expected Team Exposure: Low (Cash) / Medium (GPP)