NFL DFS Picks and Analysis - Week 4: The Grind Down - Bengals vs. Dolphins
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, a fantasy football advice article for DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo. This DFS breakdown is a FAST and EFFICIENT preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the projections, projected ownership, picks, targets, and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.
Every game will be broken down with a DFS AND DFS Prop Site mentality. Betting lines are shown with projected team totals, spreads, and moneyline to give you an idea of the game environment. At the end of each section, we’ll deliver a DFS and Prop cheat sheet of props to bet, stacks to build, players to target, and low projected ownership plays that can make an impact on your weekly success.
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Projected Ownership: Expected draft percentage for each player.
All Best Bets for Underdog: For every player, game, and team.
Expert Rankings: Consensus best plays.
Top Stacks: based on our simulations.
Sports Betting Lines and Overview
Cincinnati Bengals Projections Breakdown
Miami Dolphins Projections Breakdown
NFL DFS and Prop Site Analysis
— There are a few injuries to monitor heading into this game. Tua Tagovailoa, Jaylen Waddle, Terron Armstead (left tackle), and Xavien Howard (cornerback) are all listed as questionable. All four were able to practice on a limited basis this week, but we should keep an eye on the inactives list when it comes out an hour before the game starts. Joe Mixon and Tee Higgins have been taken off the injury report for the Bengals, but La’el Collins (right tackle) is questionable and D.J. Reader (good run-stopper) has been ruled out.
— The offensive line has been a big concern for the Bengals this season and the Dolphins love to blitz. While Miami hasn’t gotten much pressure on opposing quarterbacks, it’s certainly a concern for Cincinnati in this game. If Joe Burrow can stay upright, he should be able to pick apart a defense that might be without their two best cornerbacks. No team in the NFL has given up more fantasy points to quarterbacks this season and we obviously want to maximize our lineup’s floor and ceiling whenever possible.
— The Bengals have so many weapons in the passing game that it could really be any of their receivers that have a breakout game each week. We’ve seen the ceiling of Ja’Marr Chase in Week 1 and we saw Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins both have nice games against the Jets in Week 3. Through the first three games, Chase leads the way in terms of target share (29%) and air yards share (36%), but he’s obviously the most expensive of the three. On a per-dollar basis, I’ll side with Higgins in single-entry contests. For large-field tournaments, it makes sense to get exposure to all three receivers. Hayden Hurst could be the forgotten one in the passing game, even though he has averaged 5.7 targets in his first three games with the Bengals.
— The production for Joe Mixon hasn’t been there in the first three games, but the usage is second to none. He leads all running backs in opportunities per game (26) and is averaging a career-high 6.7 targets. When it comes to running back, we should always chase the volume and Mixon projects for plenty of it this week against the Dolphins. There are times to target backup running backs in showdown, but Samaje Perine is far too expensive for his current role.
— Based on quotes from Mike McDaniel and the fact that Tagovailoa has been able to practice on a limited basis, we should expect him to draw the start in this one. It’s worth noting that he did take some big shots against the Bills and is dealing with a back injury. If active, he’s a lock and load play for showdown. Quarterbacks always offer the safest floor/ceiling combination and we get the chance to roster two of them on these primetime slates.
— Trent Sherfield and Cedrick Wilson could easily pay off their DraftKings salaries with a couple of catches, but this passing attack runs through two players — Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. The two have combined for 57% of the team’s targets and 68% of the team’s air yards. Waddle is currently questionable, which could lead to lower ownership. I’ve been higher on Hill the first few weeks, but this is clearly a situation where the team has a 1A and 1B at receiver. If Waddle is out, a lot of value opens up in this receiving corps. Mike Gesicki has been an after-thought in this offense. At this point, Durham Smythe has a similar target share and a much cheaper price point.
— There doesn’t seem to be any rhyme or reason to which running back is going to get the most work in the Dolphins backfield. Chase Edmonds led the way in Week 1, Raheem Mostert led the way in Week 2, and then we saw a pretty even split in Week 3 with Edmonds scoring two touchdowns on goal-line carries. While both should be considered in large-field tournaments, I will let ownership dictate which running back I’ll have more exposure to this week. The matchup is improved with DT Reader out for the Bengals.
— We’ve seen a lot of defenses find their way into optimals in showdown this season. The Bengals are favored and deserve consideration, while the Dolphins could get a lot of pressure on Burrow. Both kickers are also worth a look on DraftKings.
Roster Construction Punts/Values: Raheem Mostert, Defenses, Kickers
Favorite Prop Site Bet: Raheem Mostert Over 38.5 Rushing Yards (Underdog)