NFL Grind Down Week 10: San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the statistics, insights and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.

Vegas Overview

SEA @ SFO Team Spread Total Implied Moneyline
SFO -6 47 26.5 -270
SEA 6 47 20.5 230

Betting Quick Take: San Francisco’s defense has been one of the best in the league this year, but they will face a stern test with Seattle coming in on Monday night. I expect this to be a close game, with the teams looking to limit mistakes in the early going. I continue to under-estimate this San Francisco team, and I don’t want to make that mistake again. I will stay away from a spread bet recommendation here, but I do like the under when looking over the NFL odds for tonight.

UNDER 47
Confidence Level: 6 out of 10

Injury Situations

Player Team Pos Status Part Impact
Marquise Goodwin SFO WR Q Personal 3

Injuries to Monitor:

Seattle Seahawks – The Seahawks are largely healthy outside of their defensive backfield. They lost starting safety Tedric Thompson to IR, and Quandre Diggs has yet to suit up for the team since being acquired from the Lions. Upgrade the matchup for the San Francisco passing game if Diggs remains sidelined.

San Francisco 49ersMarquise Goodwin is questionable due to a personal matter, but he was a healthy scratch last week. This is not relevant from a DFS perspective. The 49ers are also likely to get starting tackle Joe Staley back this week, which is another boost to an already booming team.

Other News and Notes: This is a key divisional game between two teams that are on a collision course for the playoffs. Will the pressure of a prime time home game get to the surging 49ers? Nothing has bothered them so far. The weather looks good, with a modest mid-60 degree day on tap for Monday in San Francisco.

Matchup Factors, Team Identity Metrics, and Game Flow Expectations

Expected Game Pace and Tempo: Current pace through nine weeks: Seattle 28.00 seconds per play (16th) / San Francisco 29.51 seconds per play (28th). Neither team is keen on pushing tempo, and this goes to my theory above as to why I like the under in this game. Don’t expect a lot of no huddle, up tempo possessions unless the game gets lopsided one way or the other.

San Francisco 49ers Projections Breakdown

Team Projections

QB Team Rank Proj ProjAtt ProjYds
Jimmy Garoppolo SFO 18.12 QB11 35.95 286.48
RB Team Rank Proj ProjRu% ProjTar%
Tevin Coleman SFO 12.25 RB23 47% 6%
Matt Breida SFO 9.96 RB27 38% 6%
WR/TE Team Proj Rank ProjTar% ProjTar
Emmanuel Sanders SFO 14.24 WR17 23% 8.27
Deebo Samuel SFO 8.06 WR60 14% 5.04
Dante Pettis SFO 6.39 WR69 11% 3.77
George Kittle SFO 14.78 TE3 23% 8.27

SEA Adj. Fpts Allowed: QB Rank 11/RB Rank 14/WR Rank 15/TE Rank 6

Rushing Opportunity Metrics of Note:

SF Team Rush Play Percentage = 54.8% (1st)

Rushing Efficiency Metrics of Note:

SF Team Rushing EPA = -14.4 (11th)
Matt Breida YPC = 5.3
Tevin Coleman YPC = 4.3

The 49ers arrive to this game on the heels of a long week, having played in Arizona on Thursday in Week 9. With this game being on Monday, the team has had a full week to prepare for a big divisional showdown against Seattle.

It’s also nice to finally have some clarity surrounding this running game. Jeff Wilson and Raheem Mostert have become afterthoughts, and this is basically a two man backfield with Tevin Coleman and Matt Breida. Coleman is the early down and red zone workhorse, while Breida has more of a passing down role. Coleman has played on more snaps in four straight games now. The production has been a little hit or miss, as Coleman followed up his impressive four touchdown performance from Week 8 with a 12 carry, 23 yard dud against the Cardinals. We have another decision to make with this being another stand-alone island game. Expect Coleman to be better this week, and it’s worth noting that Seattle has allowed the seventh highest rate of explosive rush plays and the fifth highest percentage of opposing rushing touchdowns.

Coleman should find his way back into the end zone in this game, and ownership will likely be a lot lower than it was for last Thursday’s single game slate. Although Breida plays on fewer snaps, opportunity will be there given that no team runs the ball more than San Francisco. He’s a fine risk/reward leverage play if you are looking to go underweight on Coleman in daily fantasy football GPP formats, but the lower snap count gives Breida more volatility.

Passing Game Opportunity Metrics of Note:

SF Team Pass Play Percentage = 45.2% (32nd)

Passing Game Efficiency Metrics of Note:

SF Team Passing EPA = 42.6 (13th)
Jimmy Garoppolo YPA = 8.0

The efficiency numbers for Jimmy Garoppolo are pretty good in 2019. He is averaging eight yards per pass attempt. He is completing 71% of his passes. His quarterback rating is over 100. Everything is roses, right?

Ehhhhh – not so fast my friend.

Garoppolo has just 13 passing touchdowns in eight games. Four of those came against the Cardinals in Week 9. Prior to that, he had nine touchdowns in seven games. He has one 300+ yard game. That came against the Cardinals in Week 9. I expect the crowd to flock to him, and I’m just not convinced that the upside is there on a team that passes the ball on the lowest percentage of plays in the NFL.

The problem with the Garoppolo fade is that this matchup is golden against a Seahawks defense that really struggles to create pressure and has a below average, banged up secondary unit. The addition of Emmanuel Sanders also provides another weapon that Garoppolo has been sorely lacking in previous games. Sanders instantly made an impact with a 7/112/1 line on nine targets against the Cardinals, and his presence might also help open up the field for George Kittle, who had a 6/79/1 line of his own. These two are likely to dominate targets and snaps, and given the fact that the rest of the San Francisco passing game is so hit or miss, I don’t see a reason to target anyone else. Deebo Samuel could make some noise as the player who seems to have ascended into a starting role, and his snaps are the most secure of the remaining options. I’ll list him as a secondary play.

UPDATE – Kittle is doubtful this weel. Do not mess with the San Francisco TE situation. Upgrade Sanders.

Team Quick Summary: The team isn’t exciting, but they get the job done. San Francisco matches up well against a struggling defense. Tevin Coleman and Emmanuel Sanders are your safe volume-based plays, while you can consider Garoppolo or Kittle as well on single game slates. Matt Breida is the risk/reward pivot away from Coleman in GPP formats.

Seattle Seahawks Projections Breakdown

Team Projections

QB Team Proj Rank ProjAtt ProjYds
Russell Wilson SEA 20.07 QB4 36.27 278.56
RB Team Proj Rank ProjRu% ProjTar%
Chris Carson SEA 16.01 RB10 69% 8%
Rashaad Penny SEA 3.36 RB52 10% 3%
WR/TE Team Proj Rank ProjTar% ProjTar
Tyler Lockett SEA 16.64 WR10 25% 9.07
D.K. Metcalf SEA 13.08 WR23 22% 7.98
Josh Gordon SEA 10.26 WR44 16% 5.80
Jacob Hollister SEA 6.4 TE21 11% 3.81
Luke Willson SEA 2.8 TE40 5% 1.63

SFO Adj. Fpts Allowed: QB Rank 32/RB Rank 31/WR Rank 32/TE Rank 29

Rushing Opportunity Metrics of Note:

SEA Team Rush Play Percentage = 42.7% (7th)

Rushing Efficiency Metrics of Note:

SEA Team Rushing EPA = -38.8 (32nd)
Chris Carson YPC = 4.4

If I had to guess, the Seahawks are playing the “no respect” card as healthy six point underdogs in this game. That is likely more a function of the struggling defense than it is anything else, as it certainly has not been the fault of the offense. They are coming off a thrilling overtime win over Tampa Bay in Week 9, and Chris Carson continues to play a nearly every down role in this backfield. He carried the ball 16 times for 105 yards against the Bucs, and that was an impressive 6.6 per carry average against the best rush defense in the NFL. Remember, that is a rush defense that has stifled Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara, Todd Gurley, and others this season.

The 49ers have shown an elite defense this year, and they have done good at shutting running backs down right at the line of scrimmage. They have a top five unit in rush yards before contact and early down success rate allowed. However, they have shown a little more weakness of late. Kenyan Drake was surprisingly effective in his first game as a Cardinal in Week 9 with an impressive 100+ yard day, and Carson is one of the better backs San Francisco has faced all year. Given Seattle’s commitment to the run, Carson makes sense as an elite option in single game formats.

Passing Game Opportunity Metrics of Note:

SEA Team Pass Play Percentage = 57.3% (26th)

Passing Game Efficiency Metrics of Note:

SEA Team Passing EPA = 69.1 (3rd)
Russell Wilson YPA = 8.5

I do have to take a moment to applaud Pete Carroll. Many people assumed he would not adjust last week’s game plan based on matchup — which dictated more of a pass-heavy approach against a Tampa Bay defense that has been good against the run but woeful against the pass. Carroll proved all those talking heads wrong, as the Seahawks went with a 43-22 pass-run ratio in the overtime win. Russell Wilson responded with nearly 400 total yards and FIVE touchdowns, and that now has Wilson sitting as the leading candidate in the NFL MVP race at the moment.

Well, the script has flipped this week. Seattle travels to San Francisco to take on a 49ers team that grades out as perhaps the best pass defense in all of football. To be clear, I am not concerned about Wilson. He will likely still get his fair share of numbers, particularly if he uses his legs more in this game. The question becomes: What do we do with his receivers?

Let’s take a quick look at what “#1” receivers have done against San Francisco this year:

Larry Fitzgerald – 4 catches, 38 yards
Curtis Samuel – 4 catches, 46 yards (or, if you prefer, D.J. Moore had only 38 yards)
Terry McLaurin – 1 catch, 11 yards
Cooper Kupp – 4 catches, 17 yards
Odell Beckham – 2 catches, 27 yards
JuJu Smith-Schuster – 3 catches, 81 yards, 1 TD
Chris Godwin – 3 catches, 53 yards, 1 TD (or, if you prefer, Mike Evans had 2 catches for 28 yards)

Tyler Boyd did have a 100+ yard game against them, but outside of him and JuJu, this 49ers defense has held every #1 wideout under 50 receiving yards. It’s incredible production, and Richard Sherman can surely provide some insight on slowing down the Seattle passing game. It’s very risky, but perhaps this is the time to swerve away from Tyler Lockett. Maybe look to D.K. Metcalf as a leverage play, or even get friskier with someone like David Moore. Moore has seen his snap share increase from 23% to 42% to 49% to 55% over the last four games. Hey, you could do worse for value on a single game slate…

The problem with targeting Moore is that Josh Gordon is expected to debut for Seattle. Nobody has any idea how much he will play, so this throws a big wrench into things. I am not touching Gordon unless we get confirmation of a big role.

Team Quick Summary: The good news is that we generally know who is going to touch the ball for Seattle. The bad news is that the matchup is poor. I like Carson and Wilson in all formats, but I am concerned about Tyler Lockett given San Francisco’s ability to shut down top wide receivers. This might be a spot to save some salary and look to more affordable WR options like D.K. Metcalf or David Moore.

DFS Recommendations (Single Game Slates)

Optimal DFS Plays: Tevin Coleman, Emmanuel Sanders, Chris Carson, Russell Wilson

Leverage Plays: Matt Breida,, D.K. Metcalf

Secondary Plays: Jimmy Garoppolo, Deebo Samuel, Tyler Lockett, San Francisco D/ST

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