The Pitcher Stats I Look At
“The pitcher stats you look at? Wait — I thought this was about hitters.”
Exactly. This course is about hitters. And that’s why we are starting out by looking at pitchers.
Why? Because more than any other sport, matchup matters in MLB.
In order to illustrate this, let’s look at an example:
It’s NFL DFS, and a stud wide receiver is squaring off against a stud cornerback. To at least some extent (possibly to a large extent), this matchup should scare you away from the wide receiver in question. But before making a decision on whether or not to use this receiver, you also have to ask yourself: on how many plays will the cornerback actually be covering the receiver? Does the cornerback in question actually shadow, or does he just play sides? And even if he does shadow, how often does his team play zone coverage? Or what about if the receiver moves into the slot — will the cornerback follow him there? And how is this receiver even used? Will the coach look for ways to scheme this receiver away from the cornerback in question, or will he instead be content to let these two studs match up all game?
Depending on all these factors, that “stud wide receiver” may actually find himself opposite that “stud cornerback” on only 20 or 30 percent of snaps, and the perceived “negative matchup” may not be so negative after all.
If I didn’t think you were smart enough to have processed that first example, I would also walk through an example of an NBA superstar in a tough matchup and show you how the perceived “negative matchup” may not be so negative after all, but since I do think you’re smart enough, we’ll move back to MLB.
While digging a bit deeper in NFL and NBA can sometimes reveal to you that what you perceived as a “difficult matchup” on the surface will really only be a difficult matchup a small percentage of the game, you are never going to find this to be the case in MLB. If the stud hitter you want to use is facing a stud pitcher, you have to assume he will be facing this stud pitcher in three of his four at bats. Can a stud hitter still have a solid game against a stud pitcher? Absolutely! But is this what is “likeliest to happen”? Probably not.
On the other hand, let’s look at a barely-above-average hitter who happens to be squaring off against a bullpen pitcher who is making a spot start and has poor numbers across the board. Not only will he himself get to face this pitcher two or three times, but the rest of his team will get to face this guy two or three times as well. This means that our “barely-above-average hitter” will not only get to face an easy matchup several times, but that the rest of his teammates will get to face this guy several times as well. This leads to more men on base for the hitter we are using, which means more RBI opportunities. It also means more chances for the guys behind him to drive him in when he gets on base. It also means a good chance of extra at bats in the game as everyone on the team is likelier to be picking up hits, which means more base runners between each out, which means more at bats for everyone in the lineup. It also means that there is a chance the team squaring off against this spot-start pitcher is likelier to build a big lead early, which means they are likelier to face middle relief pitchers once the starter is removed from the game, which means their chances of continuing their offensive production increases.
To read the rest of this lesson, you must purchase the course!
