What to Look For in Opposing Lineups
Are you sitting down?
Are you holding onto your hat?
No? Okay, go grab a hat. Put it on. Sit down. And hold onto that hat on your head. This next sentence just might blow your mind:
The team a pitcher is facing makes a big difference in that pitcher’s expected performance.
I’ll say it again, in case it blew your mind so much you were unable to grasp it the first time:
The team a pitcher is facing makes a big difference in that pitcher’s expected performance.
Oh. What’s that? It didn’t blow your mind? You didn’t need to be wearing that hat and holding onto it after all? Darn. There goes my big impact.
Obviously, I say that in jest. But then again…
Probably one of the biggest mistakes a lot of players make is that they underestimate the importance of “matchup” when selecting their pitchers. (Another one of the biggest mistakes? You guessed it: Underestimating the importance of “matchup” when selecting hitters.) Rather than upgrading pitchers as much as they should against bad lineups, most MLB DFSers overlook mid-level pitchers no matter the team they are facing. And rather than avoiding “elite pitchers” in a tough matchup, they think, “Well, this pitcher is elite; I don’t want to miss out on a big game from him.”
What these DFSers fail to realize is that matchup matters. A lot.
To illustrate, by the numbers, the way in which matchup matters, we are going to break down two hypothetical options on a particular slate.
To read the rest of this lesson, you must purchase the course!
