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- Utilizing Ranges of Outcomes Based on Volatility in DFS
Utilizing Ranges of Outcomes Based on Volatility in DFS
Utilizing Ranges of Outcomes Based on Volatility in Daily Fantasy Football is a comprehensive overview of how you can take the unknowns associated with volatility and use them to your advantage, helping you to build your rosters around both safety and upside.
In this course, you’ll learn:
• Why standard projection models don’t paint an accurate picture
• How to create your own range of outcomes for a player so you can have a realistic estimate of their potential output
• How to use positional volatility to optimize each roster spot
• Which statistics are most consistent from week to week and how you can utilize that knowledge
8 lessons
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1
Why Player Volatility Matters and How It Should Affect Your Strategy Depending on Game Type
In order to utilize volatility, we first must understand it. This lesson examines volatility and sets the groundwork for the rest of the course.
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2
The Fragility of Standard Projections and Why You Need to Project a Range of Outcomes
Standard projections do not produce an accurate picture of a player’s potential production. This lesson shows the value of instead looking at the range of a player’s potential outcomes.
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3
How Do You Measure Player Volatility?
Before we can fully utilize volatility, we will need to know how to calculate it. This lesson shows how to do so and what volatility means for individual players.
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4
How Volatile is Each Position?
Volatility varies from position to position. This lesson shows how much it varies and why this is beneficial in daily fantasy football.
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5
How to Project a Range of Outcomes for Each Player
Now that you’re an expert in volatility, it’s time to create your own range of outcomes for each player. This lesson shows you how to do just that.
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6
Using Positional Volatility to Make Optimal Cash Game Decisions
Your interaction with volatility should differ between cash games and tourneys. This lesson shows how to best utilize that volatility in cash games to maximize your floor.
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7
Using Positional Volatility to Make Optimal Tournament Decisions
Now that we’ve tackled volatility in cash games, it’s time to do the same with tourneys. This lesson illustrates how you can use volatility to maximize the upside of your roster.
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8
Incorporating Individual Player Volatility into Decision-Making
Although we know the volatility of each position, not all players fit the mold of their position exactly the same. This lesson discusses when you should focus on the individual player’s volatility and how to know which players will be most volatile.
Instructor
Chris Raybon
One of the most well respected DFS analysts in the industry. Chris Raybon (@Chris Raybon) is the Senior DFS Editor for 4for4.com and the host of the DFS MVP Podcast. Nominated for the FWSA‘s Newcomer of the Year award in 2015, Raybon is known for his DFS Playbook positional strategy guides as well as his groundbreaking work on stacking with running backs in DFS tournaments. A Syracuse University alum who specialized in accounting, Raybon believes in the synergy of quantitative and qualitative analysis. He started playing fantasy as a kid in the mid-90s and has seen every single play of every single NFL game since 2010.