Chris Bassitt Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

A short seven game Monday night slate not only features a single $10K pitcher on FanDuel, but no other pitcher exceeding $9K on both sites either. Chris Bassitt costs $10.4K on FD, but $1.1K less on DraftKings. With Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom back and dealing, he’s nearly become an afterthought in this tremendous rotation, but has seven Quality Starts in his last eight (2.52 ERA/3.00 FIP/3.14 xFIP). He’s been a bit unfortunate with 15 of his 20 barrels (5.9%) leaving the yard for a 13.0 HR/FB), but even that has calmed down recently with a 10.0 HR/FB over this eight start stretch. A 3.71 FIP is Bassitt’s only season estimator above his 3.61 ERA, though he’s within half a run of them all. Citi Field is normally a pitcher friendly environment, but hitter friendly weather may make it play more neutrally tonight. The matchup is an extremely favorable one though. The Reds have a 76 wRC+ (8.4 HR/FB) on the road, an 85 wRC+ (24.2 K%) vs RHP and a 68 wRC+ (25 K%) over the last week. Bassitt is the second best projected pitcher on tonight’s board and a top four value on DraftKings, though projecting as the sixth best pitching value on FanDuel essentially places him in the middle of the board. To find out who tonight’s top projected pitcher and value is, check out Monday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

On a 12 game slate with reasonably priced pitching and the Astros (4.7 implied runs) and Yankees (4.4) clearly atop the board tonight, it’s no surprise that both teams project for 20% stacking ownership on DraftKings currently with the latter the only team cracking 15% on FanDuel. Simulations also prefer the Yankees to “smash” the slate most often too, a bit below 20% of the time. Again, the Astros are the only other team coming through in more than 10% of simulations. Cheap Baltimore bats are the overwhelming top value stack on DraftKings with a Value% above 30%. The gaps are a lot smaller on FanDuel with Arizona bats leading the way at 18.2%. Not a batter in their already confirmed lineup exceeds $2.5K, but they have a very tough matchup against Pablo Lopez in Miami. It’s possible that the best leveraging scenario on FanDuel revolves around high priced pitching, while DraftKings players may find an advantage with a young lineup facing a struggling pitcher in one of the more power friendly parks in play tonight. For additional notes on some of the top leverage spots on the board tonight, check out Monday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Chris Bassitt costs $9.7K on FanDuel, a price tag that makes him just the sixth most expensive pitcher on that site and seventh on DraftKings ($8.8K). While the Diamondbacks don’t offer a ton of upside from a strikeout standpoint (only one of nine projected batters above a 24 K% vs RHP since 2020), they do offer a great run prevention spot for Bassitt in a pitcher’s park (83 wRC+ vs RHP). He allowed more than two runs for just the second time since his second start last time out against the Mariners, failing to complete five innings for just the first time this season, but still struck out six with one walk over his four innings (four runs). He’s running a 26.5 K% (11.4 SwStr%) and 20.9 K-BB% well above his career rates, combined with quality contact management (87.8 mph EV, 6.1% Barrels/BBE). Estimators that don’t include his home run rate or contact profile matchup closely to his 3.53 ERA, but the FIP and xERA are both around three. Bassitt may not be the top pitcher on the board or in the highest upside spot, but he’s fairly close to both and shouldn’t be overlooked for players looking for an alternative to the pitchers in either of those two groups.

Despite a nearly full 14 game slate, Aaron Nola is the only pitcher to reach $10K on both sites, while Sandy Alcantara is exactly that much on DraftKings, but $2K less on FanDuel and Tyler Glasnow is the most expensive FanDuel pitcher, but misses the $10K mark by $200 on DraftKings. We should probably also mention Alex Wood ($9.9K on FanDuel), Domingo German (within $200 of $9.5K on either site) and Chris Bassitt (above $9K on either site) among the high priced arms tonight.

The matchup in the Bronx pits Glasnow against German. The former has the highest strikeout rate on the board (36.2%) and there’s no doubt he can put together a start like he did last time out, shutting out the Royals through eight three-hit innings with 11 strikeouts, at any time. He’d also allowed seven home runs over his previous four starts though and walked four on three separate occasions this year. The volatility makes him a wonderful GPP play in tough spots (or perceived tough spots), such as this one, but the Yankees have just a 97 wRC+ with a 25.4 K% vs RHP this year. Overall, you can’t really complain when neither his ERA, nor any of his estimators reach three, but the risk is there (91.4 mph EV). The brand new slider (31.5% usage) gave hitters a brand new look for a while, but it’s really just a marginal pitch (.326 wOBA, .353 xwOBA, four HRs), despite the 41.9 Whiff%. German’s 87.3 LOB% is unsustainable and while he does have some issues with the long ball, which extend back to the beginning of his major league career, nine of his 12 Barrels (8.3% Barrels/BBE) have left the yard (14.5 HR/FB), while his SIERA (3.75) and xERA (3.76) virtually match with the strand rate remaining the outlier here. The 13.5 SwStr% (14.9% over the last 30 days) even suggests the 23.3 K% should improve. Only one batter in the projected Tampa Bay lineup is below a 24.9 K% vs RHP since 2019.

Alcantara’s 3.46 ERA is a bit below traditional estimators like his SIERA, xFIP and FIP, but that all may still be underestimating him. Consider that he’s allowed more than two runs in just one of his last seven starts, his 14.1 SwStr% suggests his 24.7 K% still has room to grow and that he’s allowed more home runs (seven) than Barrels (five) this year. Factoring in his contact profile, which includes a 51.8 GB% and 2.9% Barrels/BBE, which may not be sustainable, generates a 2.87 xERA. The negative here is that he faces a quality offense (113 wRC+ vs RHP) with power (15.7 HR/FB vs RHP) that doesn’t strike out a ton (22.4 K% vs RHP) in a park that’s a bit of a wildcard as they move back up to Buffalo. Speaking of park effects, Nola finds himself in the most dangerous park outside Coors tonight. His 4.8 BB% is a career best, while a 28.1 K% and 12.7 SwStr% run just behind last year’s shortened season career highs. The 3.72 ERA is above all his estimators (.306 BABIP, 72.5 LOB%), but he may not be able to ask for much more out of this defense (-14 Runs Prevented). His 3.22 SIERA and 3.09 xERA suggest about half a run improvement with an average defense perhaps. The Reds have just a 22.7 K% vs RHP and a 20.8 HR/FB at home. This is a dangerous spot for a very expensive pitcher without an elite strikeout rate, which suggests an under-weight tendency tonight, unless that’s what everyone else projects to do as well.

Wood allowed more than two runs for the first time last time out (four), but still struck out eight of 25 Dodgers without a walk. Combining a 26.3 K% with 56.8% of his contact on the ground and 6.3% Barrels/BBE, Wood has a 3.15 SIERA and 3.43 xERA that are still nearly a run above his 2.44 ERA (89.4 LOB%), though still results nobody would complain about. At first look, this seems like a tremendous matchup, facing the Angels without Trout or Ohtani in an NL park, but four of eight projected batters are below an 11 K% vs LHP since 2020. Bassitt has gone at least seven innings with at least seven strikeouts in four of his last five starts. His 3.21 ERA is within half a run of all his estimators and sees improvement when including the contact profile (2.91 xERA & FIP), while he’s struck out more than a quarter of the batters he’s faced (26.1%). He’s allowed more than two runs in just one of his last nine starts. He’s in a high upside spot (Mariners 86 wRC+, 25.5 K% vs RHP) in a negative run environment and may be the top value among the high priced arms tonight, while Glasnow is probably still the top overall pitcher on average, despite the potential volatility.