Kansas City Chiefs vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Prop Bets for Sunday

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What kind of performances can prop bettors expect from Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Najee Harris, and Diontae Johnson on Wild-Card Sunday? Follow along as NFL betting analyst Nick Galaida breaks down his four favorite Steelers vs. Chiefs player props. Not in a state with legal sports betting? Sign up at PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy to start winning cash on NFL player props tonight!

This evening, Ben Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh Steelers will travel to Arrowhead Stadium to take on Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs. Pittsburgh achieved a highly improbable Wild Card position, defeating the Cleveland Browns in Week 17 and the Baltimore Ravens in Week 18–in addition to getting a lot of help from other teams on the bubble. Kansas City started the campaign slow, but won nine of 10 games to end the season tied for the best record in the AFC. Oddsmakers are anticipating a blowout in this matchup, pricing the Chiefs as 12.5-point home favorites on the spread.

As we approach kickoff, the value on the spread and the total has been reduced compared to its opening market price. Instead of forcing action on saturated markets, bettors may find more expected value on player props for this Wild-Card game.

Steelers vs. Chiefs Player Props

Najee Harris o60.5 rushing yards (-130)

PrizePicks: 60.5 Yards

It is no secret that the Steelers have one of the worst offensive lines in the entire league. Still, this unit should be able to create at least a little bit of room for Najee Harris to have a strong game on the ground. In Week 16, Harris received 19 carries for 93 rushing yards. Per EdgHouse, Harris has eclipsed this number in 10-of-17 games played (58.8% hit-rate) this season. Only the Steelers allowed more yards-per-carry on the ground during the regular season than the Chiefs. Harris should find plenty of room to run in this one. Take the over.

Diontae Johnson o60.5 receiving yards (-110)

PrizePicks: 57.5 Yards

The market is understandably cold on Diontae Johnson failing to recover more than 51 receiving yards during the final month of the regular season. Still, Johnson totaled nine or more targets in each of Pittsburgh’s last three contests. On Sunday Night Football, Johnson is likely to see a lot of coverage from L’Jarius Sneed, who has graded as one of the worst cornerbacks in the NFL this season, according to Pro Football Focus. Bettors should expect Johnson to finally translate his high volume of targets into a productive final statistical line. This over has a strong chance to cash.

Tyreek Hill u70.5 receiving yards (-110)

PrizePicks: 66.5 Yards

Since Week 13, Tyreek Hill has only eclipsed this line twice in six games played. Even more concerning for Hill, his target volume has been highly erratic. Twice in the final three games of the regular season, Hill received three targets or less. Since Week 12, Pittsburgh’s pass defense has allowed only 5.6 yards-per-attempt and a 60.0 percent completion rate to opposing quarterbacks. The Steelers do not have any elite members in their secondary unit, but this still feels like far too high of a line for Hill in this matchup. The under has value.

Travis Kelce o69.5 receiving yards (-110)

PrizePicks: 64.5 Yards

Travis Kelce has not exactly been lighting up the box score of late either, but his target volume has remained consistent. Over the final month of the regular season, Kelce received 29 targets in four games, and has been a frequent target in the red zone–securing four touchdowns in his last three games played. Patrick Mahomes is likely to look Kelce’s way frequently this evening, which should give this play a good opportunity to cash.

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About the Author

nickgalaida
Nick Galaida (nickgalaida)

A failed high school pitcher, Nick Galaida discovered that he has a higher aptitude for analyzing and writing about sports than he does playing them. To his friends, he is better known as “The Commish.” When he’s not organizing a fantasy league, placing a bet, or writing an article, he’s probably nose-deep in a book—further illustrating the point that his niche in this world is as a nerd rather than an athlete. Follow Nick on Twitter – @CommishFilmRoom