Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills: Odds, Predictions, & Betting Picks
To sports bettors’ delight NFL Week 6 concludes with yet another two-game Monday Night Football slate. The Bills and Chiefs kick things off at 5 pm ET, followed by the Cowboys and Cardinals at 8:15 ET. We’ve got NFL odds, game previews, predictions & picks for all of your sports betting needs.
Also Read: Are the Chiefs the Next Great Sports Betting Dynasty?
Chiefs vs. Bills Betting Odds
You’ll want to make sure hustle into work, because you don’t want to miss this matchup between two MVP candidates in Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes.
As the Chiefs showed against the Baltimore Ravens in Week 3, Kansas City’s offense can score in bunches regardless of who of the defensive opponent. If you leave the office at 5, Mahomes may have already connected for a touchdown to Tyreek Hill (or this week Mecole Hardman) by the time you start your car.
With two of the fastest receivers in the NFL, the Chiefs are certainly capable of scoring quickly; however, you might not realize it looking at the final score, but Mahomes & Co. have been taking their time to heat up.
In fact, through five games, the Chiefs have scored just two of their 18 (!) touchdowns in the first quarter, and only twice have they been the first team to score. Despite averaging nearly 30 points per game, merely 3.8 of those points come in first 15 minutes.
There are a few ways to look at this if you think there’s something to this trend (and extremely small sample size, might I add). First, you can bet on the Bills to score first and/or the Bills first-quarter spread. You can also target Bills players when it comes to First Touchdown odds. And if you like the Chiefs to cover the spread, you might be better off to wait and bet in-game (or on the Live line).
We have seen similar trends play out with another great team — the 2017 & 2018 Golden State Warriors. However, I’m not convinced there’s anything to this one, so I will not have first quarter or wait for the live line before placing my bet. Now here’s what you need to know before making yours.
Chiefs vs. Bills Betting Preview
Both teams are looking to bounce back after losing their first games of the season a week ago.
The Chiefs lost at home to AFC West rivals, the Oakland Raiders, and the Bills lost on the road to the Tennessee Titans.
While Mahomes wasn’t at his best, the Chiefs loss came as a result of a lackluster defensive performance, which allowed Derek Carr to lead his team to 40 points. Up to that point, the Chiefs’ defense was surprisingly formidable. They held the Texans and Ravens to 20 points each, and they rank no. 9 in DVOA, thanks to a second-ranked pass DVOA.
Where the Chiefs are vulnerable is in the trenches, as their run DVOA is ranked no. 28. Luckily for the Chiefs, despite slow first quarters, they typically find a way to get out in front in the second quarter (9.8 points per 2Q), giving their opponents no choice but to abandon the run as they try to keep pace with Mahomes & Co.
If the Chiefs pass defense returns to form, it could spell trouble for Josh Allen, who might have prematurely entered the MVP conversation after a favorable schedule.
Through the first four weeks, Allen eclipsed 300 passing yards three times, including a career-high 415-yards in Week 2, while torching secondaries for 12 touchdown passes and only one interception. A proven dual-threat quarterback, Allen also met paydirt three times with his legs.
Before Tuesday’s game against Tennessee, Allen jumped ahead of Lamar Jackson in terms of MVP odds at online sportsbooks, and sat behind only Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes, albeit briefly.
After throwing two interceptions and posting a 63 QBR on Tuesday, Jackson fell back down to +1500, still top five on the MVP betting board.
Clearly, Allen’s MVP campaign is still in the exploratory stage, and as I learned last week, the jury is still out on the Bills, too.
Buying the narrative that the Titans would be rusty after have only two “official” practices during their COVID-induced hiatus, I made a bad judgment to lay the points with Buffalo last week.
I overlooked something that should’ve set off the alarms: the Bills only beat the Jets by 10 points at home.
That looked like an alright win at the time, but it’s quite ugly in hindsight — maybe as ugly as a double-digit win can get. In fact, the Jets only played the Broncos closer.
The Bills were 7-point favorites at the time, and they’d be closer to two-touchdown favorites at home if the game were played this week and given what we know now. Still, it’s worth asking what we think the Chiefs will be favored against the Jets in two weeks. I could be the largest spread in NFL history.
Additionally, the Bills barely scraped out with a win against the Miami Dolphins in Week 2.
Chiefs vs. Bills Betting Picks
Mahomes might start slow, but he’s been absolutely dominant against the spread. Since taking over as the franchise quarterback, Mahomes is 27-13-1 ATS. Head coach Andy Reid is similarly dominant on the road and in primetime games.
Take that for what it’s worth (maybe not much), but the Bills are playing on short rest and preparation while the Chiefs haven’t played in more than a week.
Moreover, one of the reason why I picked Chiefs +3.5 against the Ravens was because of how much the Ravens defense blitzes and how good Mahomes is against said blitzes. You know who else blitzes a lot? The Bills. Despite blitzing 40.6% of the time, the third-highest rate in the NFL, the Bills are only average in terms of Pressure%, Sack%, and Clean% (via GridironIQ).
I think you know where I’m going with this, and if you read my NFL Week 6 Betting Picks early last week, you might have already bet on the Chiefs -3.5
Since then, money has piled in on the Chiefs at online sportsbooks, moving the opening line to -5 as of early Monday morning. According to ScoresAndOdds, 87% of money is on Kansas City.
Remember: Home teams have been underperforming ATS this season. That stadiums are operating at limited capacity, and in some cases with no fans at all, may not be a coincidence.
The total has fallen from 57.6 to 56.5 despite 70% of money being wagered on the Over.
Though Overs have crushed, going 49-40-1 overall, only four Week 6 games went Over on Sunday (4-8). In Week 5, Overs went 8-7. Scoring remains high but it appears oddsmakers have adjusted to the NFL scoring frenzies.
I won’t be adding to my initial bet, but I am perfectly fine with betting on the Chiefs at the current line.
Betting Pick: Chiefs -5
Image Credit: USA Today Sports Images