Hawks vs. Sixers Odds, Game 6 Preview, Picks, & Prediction

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Hawks vs. Sixers Game 6 Odds

Hawks Odds +3
76ers Odds -3
Moneyline -150/+130
Over/Under 221.5
Time 7:30 p.m. ET
Where Atlanta, GA
TV ESPN
Odds accurate as of Friday at BetMGM
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Yesterday, I wrote about how some playoff series feel destined for Game 7s from the jump. The Sixers-Hawks semifinals series has been one of those series. The Hawks delivered road upsets in Game 1 and Game 5, but Philly stole a game back in the ATL. The Sixers will have to win at the Philips Arena once again Friday, or begin their offseason schedule way earlier than the No. 1 seed expected.

Oddsmakers seem to like Philly’s chances to even the series at 3-3, listing Doc Rivers’ squad as -3 favorites against the spread and -155 on the moneyline. I absolutely agree, and would be shocked to see Philly get sent packing from the semifinals in six games. But then again, I was pretty exasperated to see Trae Young and the Hawks erase a 26-point first-half deficit in Game 5 to eventually win 109-106. To say they pulled off the improbable is obvious—this seemed more like miracle making.

Young has played with ice in his veins all postseason, refusing to give up regardless of the mountainous challenges thrown his way. He orchestrated an incredible fourth quarter Wednesday, with Atlanta shooting 16-of-22 from the floor and outscoring the home squad 40-19. MVP candidate Joel Embiid, who scored 39 points when all was said and done, collapsed in the clutch. Seth Curry, who scored 36 points on his own, lost his gusto. No other Sixer scored a field goal in the second half.

For this miraculous comeback to occur, the Hawks needed to play nearly flawless basketball while Philly essentially fell on their faces. There’s no other way to explain it. The Sixers committed 10 of their 15 turnovers in the final two frames. By the final buzzer, Philly’s Ben Simmons had missed a whopping 10 of his 14 free-throw attempts, while Atlanta converted 22 of their 28 tries.

Sixers vs. Hawks Game 6 Preview

I can’t see a collapse of this magnitude carrying over to an elimination game. Philadelphia has been far too solid all season—how can a five-seed knock the 76ers out of the dance in six? No, this one is going seven just like Brooklyn-Milwaukee. The East is filled with surprises, but it will be an absolute stunner if this one’s over on Friday night.

Remember, Philadelphia went 19-9 as an away favorite this season, and 16-10 after a loss. Conversely, Atlanta went 8-9 as a home underdog. Young will probably go off once again, and drop a 50-burger for all we know. But can his young teammates deliver in a high-pressure game to eliminate the No. 1 seed? I think not.

The Sixers have an MVP candidate, two All-Stars, three All-Defensive selections, and a former NBA champion coach. I expect them to play lock-down defense and quality team basketball. I think they will aggressively set the pace from the get-go, and pound the boards all game. Philly is deeper, more talented, and more experienced than Atlanta. The Hawks’ Cinderella story has been a fantastic one—and Young has been masterful—but I don’t think it’s their time quite yet.

I don’t like Philly to win it all this season, by any measure. I think Utah, Milwaukee, Phoenix, and Brooklyn have a much better chance at the 2021 banner than the Sixers. But I do like Rivers’ squad to hunker down and advance to the Eastern Conference Finals. My friends would probably call me generationally biased, or a Trae Young hater. I’m just picking what I perceive to be the better team in this series.

Of course, choke jobs happen. And I wouldn’t put big money on this game, one way or the other. Young has been mesmerizingly good, basically fulfilling the ‘Steph Curry lite’ comparisons draft pundits made a few years ago when he was swapped for Luka Doncic. This kid—and this team—are used to being called underdogs. They almost seem to feed off it.

Sixers vs. Hawks Picks & Predictions

But defense still wins series, and my money would still be on the squad that had the 26-point lead during Game 5, not the other squad that ended up winning by three. Tobias Harris may not have another game in his life in which he scores just four points on 2-of-11 shooting. Simmons may suck at shooting, but he’s usually not a 4-of-14 from the line level of suck.

The Hawks are not supposed to be winning games like Wednesday’s. They had just 14 assists, compared to Philly’s 20. They lost the rebounding battle 44-40. They shot 34.6 percent from long range, compared to the Sixers’ 43.3 percent. The difference was Young, who might be a magician. He shot 10-of-23 from the field, 2-of-6 from deep, and a whopping 17-of-19 from the line. The Sixers, meanwhile, missed 15 free throws.

If the magician pulls off another stunner Friday, I might have to buy a Trae Young jersey and convert myself into a Hawks fan. I’m just not buying it. I’ve got Philly to win and cover Friday, like it has so many times this season. The 76ers’ record against the spread: 43-36-3. Their record against the spread when favored by three points or more: 33-27-1. Go with the better odds, and follow the bevy of statistical support. It may be tempting to pick the miracle man and his young upstart squad, because it’s undoubtedly a great story. But people lose when they bet with their hearts—they win when they bet with their heads.

Schmitto’s Game 6 Pick: The Sixers stay in Atlanta, but I don’t disagree with Sloan. Philly has lost two in a row, both games by three points. In each loss, though, the Sixers have been dominant at times — they just can’t seem to close it out in the second half. As good as Trae Young has been I expect a different Sixers team to show up Friday night. Embiid & Co. will be ready to play, and I can’t imagine another second-half where only Embiid and Curry make a field goal for the Sixers. I’m laying the points on the road and betting on the Sixers -2.5. See you guys in Philadelphia for Game 7.

Image Credit: Imagn

About the Author

SloanPiva
Sloan Piva (SloanPiva)

Sloan Piva is a veteran of the sports journalism industry, and a freelance sports betting analyst. He received his master’s degree in Professional Writing from the University of Massachusetts, and currently resides in East Bay, Rhode Island with his wife and daughter. He covers the MLB, NFL, NBA, NCAA, and PGA, as well as anything related to fantasy sports and sports betting. Shoot him an email anytime at SloanPiva@gmail.com!