MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions for Tuesday, August 4

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The Major League Baseball season is still rolling with a few blips on the radar. While a few teams look to get back on track with pandemic concerns, the Northeast will be pelted with storms this evening. The MLB is still offering a plethora of options for viewers and bettors, so, let’s sift through a few plays.

Here are MLB betting lines from online sportsbooks and MLB betting picks for Tuesday’s slate of games.

Also read: MLB World Series Odds, Tips, & Predictions

MLB Betting Lines for Tuesday, August 4

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MLB Betting Picks and Predictions

Thus far, with three articles under my belt, I am 0-3 and down three units. Going forward, units will be tracked at the bottom of each article as the season progresses. Clearly, I have some work to do.

Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays (6:40 EST)

The Boston Red Sox continue to disappoint fans, bettors, and well, me. The Red Sox continue to be projected by oddsmakers as big underdogs while projection systems suggest that is a stretch. While the discrepancy is not as great tonight, I do not think the once-vaunted Red Sox lineup should be +125 this evening against the division-rival Rays. Charlie Morton is coming off of a great season in 2019 but is struggling out of the gate in 2020. Across nine innings, Morton has ceded 8 ER, 2 HR, and a 58.6% hard-hit rate.

Morton is not this bad and is helped by a cavernous home ballpark. However, the Red Sox are also not as bad as their early performance this season. Behind Nathan Eovaldi, the Red Sox should likely be a few ticks closer to even-money, so grab this line before there is movement. Austin Meadows was activated and should be back in the Rays starting lineup tonight.

Betting Pick: Boston Red Sox +125 (UniBet) – 1 unit

Toronto Blue Jays at Atlanta Braves (7:10 EST)

Next, the Blue Jays travel to Atlanta to take on the surging Braves. Aside from a Mets victory last night, the Braves made mincemeat out of their division rivals over the weekend. The Atlanta lineup is second in runs and RBI to start the shortened 2020 season as they welcome in the Blue Jays.

The Blue Jays had to contend with home ballpark issues before starting the season 3-4. The Blue Jays are young with a questionable starting rotation. That said, the nascent offense is chock-full of right-handed bats that can take advantage of a matchup with lefty Max Fried. Teoscar Herandez is off to a torrid start — already compiling four home runs through seven games. The Blue Jays’ projected lineup features seven right-handed hitters — looking to take advantage of Fried’s issues with hard contact opposing right-handed hitters last season (41.1%).

Toronto will counter with Matt Shoemaker. The Cobbler brings his own struggles with hard-hit baseballs and walks and should have a long night with a hot Braves lineup. The O/U sits at 8.5 on FanDuel at the time of this writing. I would consider betting a unit over 9.5. This one feels easy.

Betting Pick: Over 8.5 Runs -115 (FanDuel) – 1 unit

Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres (9:10 EST)

Perhaps my East Coast bias is in play, but the Dodgers always feel like they receive little attention relative to their strong results. The Dodgers continue to do Dodger things in Los Angeles, starting the season 7-4 while ranking within the top ten of the MLB in HR, R, and wRC+. The addition of Mookie Betts sure does not hurt. While Betts was unable to play on Monday night, the MVP-candidate would have been available to pinch-run according to manager Dave Roberts. Betts should be back in the lineup as the Dodgers look to bounce back after a 5-4 loss to the 7-4 San Diego Padres.

Dinelson Lamet will make the start for the Fathers on Tuesday night. Lamet struck out plenty of batters in limited work in 2019 but struggles with the long ball (1.5 HR/9) and walks (9.6%) should temper expectations. The Dodgers’ lineup seems undervalued by oddsmakers tonight despite a strong start to the season. DraftKings Sportsbook offers a +105 price on over 4.5 runs for the star-studded squad. With Betts back in the lineup, that price is going to change. Jump on before lineups are released.

Betting Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers Over 4.5 Runs +105 (DraftKings) – 1 unit

Tonight’s Betting Card

Bet Amount To Win
Boston Red Sox +125 1 unit 1.25 units
Toronto at Atlanta Over 8.5 Runs -115 1 unit .87 units
Los Angeles Dodgers Over 4.5 Runs +102 1 unit 1.02 units

Season Record 0-3 -3 units

MLB Player Props – Home Run Derby

For a little fun on a larger slate, let’s comb online sportsbooks for home run props. I would not advise betting a large amount of money on this type of speculation but would not discourage anyone from betting a minuscule amount for a potentially large return. Coming up with a two or three-homer parlay is fun each night for a couple of bucks. In any event, here are my three favorites for tonight.

Teoscar Hernandez +500 (DraftKings)

Hernandez already boasts four home runs in the early stages of this season and will see a reasonably friendly matchup against Max Fried. The aforementioned Hernandez finished 2019 with a .246 ISO and 38.5 FB% against right-handed pitching. Max Fried yielded a 41.1% hard-hit rate to righties.

Alex Bregman +450 (DraftKings)

Madison Bumgarner is no longer Madison Bumgarner of old. In 2019, Bumgarner allowed a 43.0 Hard%, 40.7 FB%, and 191.8-foot average hit distance. Yikes! Against southpaws, Alex Bregman compiled a .393 ISO and 49.6 FB%. Garbage can joke aside, Bregman comes at a nice price for tonight’s matchup.

Daniel Murphy +725 (DraftKings)

I needed to check my glasses after reading this price. Priced at +550 on FanDuel Sportsbook, this seems a bit egregious given the context and the matchup. While Daniel Murphy struggled in 2019, he already has a home run to couple his .346 batting average this season. Last season Murphy compiled a .170 ISO and 39.0 FB% against right-handed pitching. Tonight’s matchup versus Kevin Gausman is in Coors Field, a park notoriously tough for opposing pitchers — especially those who lean on vertically breaking pitches. Gausman allowed 1.6 HR/9 across 46 innings last season. This dart comes at a great price.

Thanks for reading. Good luck with your plays and home runs this evening.

Image Credit: USA Today Sports Images

About the Author

joeycis
Joe Cistaro (joeycis)

A high school mathematics teacher from New Jersey, Joe Cistaro (aka joeycis) is a lifelong fantasy sports fan. As a member of the RotoGrinders community, Joe cut his teeth writing for the website through the blogging program. Previously engaging the community with articles such as Home Run Derby and Finding Paydirt, Joe now focuses his time on sports betting content for both the NFL and the PGA TOUR. Follow Joe on Twitter – @ JoeCistaro