MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions for Saturday, August 1: Yankees vs Red Sox

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With mounting concerns surrounding the global pandemic weighing on the MLB this weekend, sports bettors will need to lap up as much baseball as possible. One would be hardpressed to find a matchup with as much cache as the Yankees and Red Sox. The Yankees opened the series with a victory behind Jordan Montgomery and home runs from Aaron Judge and Gio Urshela. Masahiro Tanaka makes his first start of the shortened season against newly-acquired Zack Godley. Who will win the all-important American League East clash?

Here are MLB betting lines from online sportsbooks and MLB betting picks for tonight’s game.

Also read: MLB World Series Odds, Tips, & Predictions

MLB Betting Lines for Saturday, August 1

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Yankees vs. Red Sox MLB Betting Picks

Starting Pitchers

Masahiro Tanaka will take the mound for the first time this season after recovering from a frightening line drive to the head during a simulated game off the bat of Giancarlo Stanton.

Fortunately, Tanaka escaped the catastrophe with only a concussion and will wear a protective hat going forward as he pitches. Working back into shape, the Yankees’ starter threw two simulated innings last Sunday. Tanaka should be able to complete three to four innings this evening against the rival Red Sox. Last season, Tanaka pitched to a 4.29 xFIP while seeing decreases to his strikeout rate (19.6%) and soft-contact rate (16.4%). His overall 37.9% hard-contact rate could be a concern with a projected lineup with an average hard-hit rate of 38.6%. Given the concerns over his length in this game and his waning skills with age, Tanaka might be a stay-away for DFS players.

Speaking of pitching concerns, Zack Godley — and his 5.29 xFIP — walking into Yankee Stadium seems a bit unfair. Most pitchers should feel outmatched by the New York lineup, but Godley’s underlying statistics would suggest he is heavily outmatched. A measly 17.2% K-rate and lofty 10.3% walk-rate do not bode well and neither does the 89.0 MPH exit velocity opposing hitters average last season. The Yankees lineup is stacked with power and features very few holes. The Bombers will strike out a lot, but Godley’s underlying numbers would suggest he will struggle to capitalize. I will chalk up the seven K’s in relief versus the Mets as a bit of an outlier. Godley threw 53 pitches in the outing and will likely be able to get through five innings tonight if he is pitching well.

Both pitchers will have their hands full with two lineups built to put up large numbers. The Yankees are off to a strong start — sitting in the top five of the MLB in HR, ISO, wRC+, and slugging percentage. The Red Sox find themselves more in the middle of the pack but hope that a matchup with Tanaka in Yankee Stadium serves as a boon to their offense.

With all of this said, I cannot deny that the Yankees should be favored in this matchup. Yet, the betting lines offered by sportsbooks seem to potentially favor the Yankees too much. At +155 on DraftKings Sportsbook, bookmakers are informing us that the Red Sox should win this game just over 39% of the time. With the variance inherent in baseball, and a strong Boston lineup, I do not feel comfortable with that percentage. So, before it moves, I am going to take the value in this price on DraftKings Sportsbook and hope the Red Sox bats triumph in a very average pitching matchup.

MLB Betting Pick: Boston Red Sox +155 (DraftKings Sportsbook)

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MLB Prop Bets for Yankees vs. Red Sox

Boston Red Sox Over 4.5 Runs -104 (DraftKings)

The aforementioned pitching write-up suggests this game could be very favorable for either offense. The Red Sox scoring five runs against a shaky Tanaka and the weaker portion of the Yankees bullpen would not be a shock. The weather will be favorable and the Red Sox feature several lefties capable of taking advantage of the short New York porch.

Players to Hit a Home Run (FanDuel)

I definitely want to take a shot on a few lefties in Yankee Stadium against the aging Tanaka. We need to shop for the best prices — especially when rolling the dice on player home runs.

Rafael Devers +325 (FanDuel)
Andrew Benintendi +410 (FanDuel)
Jackie Bradley, Jr. +500 (DraftKings)

The Yankees’ prices really take the fun out of the hunt but here are two hitters with high flyball rates that could get into one.

Aaron Hicks +500 (DraftKings)
Brett Gardner +650 (FanDuel)

Thanks for reading. Good luck with all of your MLB bets this weekend.

Image Credit: USA Today Sports Images

About the Author

joeycis
Joe Cistaro (joeycis)

A high school mathematics teacher from New Jersey, Joe Cistaro (aka joeycis) is a lifelong fantasy sports fan. As a member of the RotoGrinders community, Joe cut his teeth writing for the website through the blogging program. Previously engaging the community with articles such as Home Run Derby and Finding Paydirt, Joe now focuses his time on sports betting content for both the NFL and the PGA TOUR. Follow Joe on Twitter – @ JoeCistaro