NBA Betting Picks for Today: Boston Celtics at Miami Heat
The Miami Heat are .5-point favorites and the point total is 218 at online sports betting sites. Here’s a look at NBA odds and NBA betting picks for today, Tuesday, January 28th, 2020.
NBA Betting Picks for Today: Celtics at Heat
Let’s start by show an example of why it’s useful to use our NBA odds too to compare lines across US sportsbooks. For instance, there are multiple different books that you can bet at if you’re in a state with legal sports betting. Currently DraftKings Sportsbook has the Heat as half-point favorite, which is something I’ve never seen before in NBA betting. Maybe this is a mistake, maybe they are expecting the first tie in NBA history. If you are betting this game on the DK Sportsbook app, taking the Heat -.5 gives you a slight edge over the moneyline at slightly higher juice, and taking the Celtics -104 is a better value than taking them +.5 at a -109 juice.
With that out of the way, let’s get to some real NBA betting analysis for today. Both the Heat and Celtics enter the game with some notable injuries. The Heat will be without Justise Winslow and Kendrick Nunn is currently questionable, while the Celtics will be without Robert Williams, Enes Kanter. They’ll also likely be without Jayson Tatum. The Heat, as of the moment, have the better record. They currently sit at second in the East with a record of 32-14, but where they have really thrived this season is at home where they own a record of 21-2. This is a little strange considering that they were one of the only teams to have a better record on the road last season, but I’m taking that as an abberation. This season, no home team has covered the spread at a higher rate than the Heat (14-5-1 ATS as a home favorite; 16-6-1 ATS overall) Conversely, the Heat are one of the worst teams in the league at covering on the road (10-12-1 ATS).
The Celtics currently sit 4th in the Eastern Conference with a record of 30-15 and are just 1.5 games back back of Miami. Much like the Heat, the Celtics have been a much better team at home this season going 18-5 in Boston and 12-10 on the road. However, unlike the Heat, they have covered at a much higher rate on the road (13-8-1 ATS on the road overall and 7-3 ATS as a road dog). Looking at the overall injuries for each team, it looks like the Celtics are the ones at a much bigger disadvantage. Without Kanter and Williams, Boston lacks depth down low and will likely struggle against Bam Adebayo as a result. And then, of course, they might be without Tatum — one of the best young players in the league both on the offensive and defensive end. The Heat on the other hand are definitely a worse team without Winslow and they will take a hit if they are without Nunn, but it’s not as drastic as the Celtics injuries. Additionally, with Kanter and Tatum both out, this gives a massive boost to both Kemba and Theis for DFS purposes.
NBA Betting Picks: Miami Heat -.5
As stated above, if you can play on the DK Sportsbook, then take this line as it offers a decent amount of value, but if you don’t, then just shop for the best odds. This line seems a little off in my estimation. There is a decent chance that the Heat decide to rest either Bam or Butler on the second end of a back-to-back, and the Heat are not great at covering on back-to-backs this season going 2-4-2 ATS, but I think the Heat are a better team with their current lineup and they’ll be more than comfortable playing in Miami. In sum, the Heat have been the better team, the Celtics are more hampered by injuries, and Miami has one of the best home court advantages this season. Take the Heat.
- Risking 1.12 unit to win 1 units on Heat -.5 (-112)
NBA 2019-2020 Betting Record: 8-7-1 (-.5 units)
Celtics at Heat NBA Player Props
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2/3 Rapid Fire – Boston at Miami
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Image Credit: USA Today Sports Images