NBA Grind Down: Saturday, April 18th (Playoff Edition)
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Fantasy point averages listed use FanDuel scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NBA scoring system, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel review.
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Washington at Toronto – 12:30 PM
- Vegas Line – Toronto -4.5, 193 Over/Under
- Washington Proj. Starters – Wall-Beal-Pierce-Hilario-Gortat
- Toronto Proj. Starters – Lowry-DeRozan-Ross-Hansbrough-Valanciunas
| Washington | Toronto | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 193 |  | Vegas Total | 193 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 4.5 | Vegas Sprd | -4.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 94.3 | Team Proj. | 98.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.02 | Team Pace | 95.45 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | John Wall | Bradley Beal | Paul Pierce | Nene Hilario | Marcin Gortat | Proj Starter | Kyle Lowry | DeMar DeRozan | Terrence Ross | Tyler Hansbrough | Jonas Valanciunas | |
| Opp. Season | 22 | 13 | 26 | 8 | 12 | Opp. Season | 14 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 14 | 13 | 5 | 3 | 13 | Opp. Last 7 | 20 | 21 | 1 | 18 | 17 | |
Washington
After resting players over the last week of the regular season, the Wizards will be at full-strength as they gear up for another playoff run. The Wizards limped their way through the last couple of months, but they do have a decent shot at winning their first-round series against the Raptors. Toronto did have their number during the regular season, but Vegas has the Wizards installed as only 4.5-point underdogs for Game 1. The total for the game is set at 193 points, which is the second-lowest total for the Saturday games. One thing to keep in mind in the playoffs is that teams will shorten their rotations and give added minutes to their starters, especially the ones that saw limited action during the regular season such as Paul Pierce.
Opponent Breakdown (Toronto)
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.1 (Rank: 19)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 23
Rebounding Differential Rank: 21
Elite Plays
John Wall (FD: $9500, DK: $8600 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 25.4)
Despite not having a ton to play for at the end of the season, Wall still finished strong, averaging 42 fantasy points per game in his last six outings. In his three meetings against the Raptors during the regular season, Wall posted mediocre averages of 19 points, 5 rebounds, and 9 assists per game. I expect him to elevate his level of play in the playoffs. He draws a favorable matchup against Kyle Lowry and the Raptors, who were ranked 22nd against point guards during the regular season.
Bradley Beal (FD: $6400, DK: $6500 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 22.2)
Beal only averaged 32 minutes per game during the regular season, but he should see a sizable uptick in minutes during the playoffs. For a complete breakdown of who is expected to see a boost in minutes, check out this NBA Minute Preview by Adam Levitan. Beal could see upward of 40 minutes in Game 1 against the Wizards. While his matchup against DeMar DeRozan isn’t great, I’ll take my chances at this price point.
Secondary Plays
Marcin Gortat (FD: $7400, DK: $6500 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 17.3)
Paul Pierce (FD: $4200, DK: $4500 / MPG: 26 / Usage Rate: 20.1)
Toronto
The Raptors are looking to advance out of the first round of the playoffs, after losing a tough seven-game series against the Nets last season. They open their postseason with a home game against the Wizards, who they have already beat three times this season. The Raptors are my pick to come out of this series, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see it go seven games. These teams are very evenly matched. In terms of potential fantasy production, the Wizards are not an ideal matchup. During the regular season, they were ranked ninth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential.
Opponent Breakdown (Washington)
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.6 (Rank: 9)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 5
Rebounding Differential Rank: 3
Elite Plays
Kyle Lowry (FD: $7700, DK: $7500 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 24.9)
The Wizards are a stout team defensively. Their one weakness this season has been opposing point guards. While Lowry didn’t exactly light up the stat sheet at the end of the season, he is coming off of one of his best games in months. Lowry carved up the Hornets’ defense with 26 points, 4 rebounds, 7 assists, and 3 steals in the Raptors’ final game of the regular season. He should coming into the playoffs with plenty of confidence and we should take full advantage of his discounted price point.
Secondary Plays
DeMar DeRozan (FD: $8600, DK: $7800 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 28.5)
Lou Williams (FD: $5200, DK: $5300 / MPG: 25 / Usage Rate: 26.5)
New Orleans at Golden State – 3:30 PM
- Vegas Line – Golden State -11.5, 203.5 Over/Under
- New Orleans Proj. Starters – Evans-Gordon-Pondexter-Davis-Asik
- Golden State Proj. Starters – Curry-Thompson-Barnes-Green-Bogut
| New Orleans | Golden State | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 203.5 |  | Vegas Total | 203.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 11.5 | Vegas Sprd | -11.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 96.0 | Team Proj. | 107.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 93.67 | Team Pace | 100.61 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Tyreke Evans | Eric Gordon | Quincy Pondexter | Anthony Davis | Omer Asik | Proj Starter | Stephen Curry | Klay Thompson | Harrison Barnes | Draymond Green | Andrew Bogut | |
| Opp. Season | 7 | 6 | 12 | 20 | 16 | Opp. Season | 13 | 17 | 8 | 7 | 20 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 16 | 20 | 14 | 26 | 20 | Opp. Last 7 | 9 | 14 | 20 | 15 | 28 | |
New Orleans
The Pelicans picked up their most impressive win of the regular season in their final game, beating a very motivated Spurs’ team that was riding an 11-game winning streak. The Pelicans will try to carry some of that momentum in their first-round series against the Warriors. If I were a Pelicans’ fan, I’d be happy if they can pick up one win in this series. They are facing the Warriors, who were the best team in the NBA during the regular season. This is a pretty decent matchup for fantasy production though, as the Warriors were the fastest-paced team in the NBA.
Opponent Breakdown (Golden State)
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.5 (Rank: 14)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 1
Rebounding Differential Rank: 12
Elite Plays
Anthony Davis (FD: $11800, DK: $11000 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 27.6)
This pick is an obvious one, but I don’t expect Davis to have a very high level of ownership right off the bat. Now that we are into the playoffs, the value plays basically evaporate into thin air. That makes rostering Davis very difficult without having to sacrifice the rest of your lineup. Davis is still the top fantasy option on the board though. He is the Pelicans’ go-to player and he should push for 40+ minutes in Game 1, assuming the Pelicans can keep this game within striking distance.
Tyreke Evans (FD: $7800, DK: $7700 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 25.9)
Even with Jrue Holiday back in the mix, Evans finished the season strong, scoring at least 37 fantasy points in four of his last eight games. He should push for minutes in the upper 30’s in Game 1 against the Warriors and with the way that Golden State plays defense, the Pelicans are going to need him to create offensively. Evans has a very high usage rate in this offense and his price point is very playable on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Secondary Plays
Eric Gordon (FD: $5100, DK: $4700 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 19.7)
Golden State
The Warriors are happy to finally be playing in a meaningful game. They have had homecourt advantage locked up for the better part of three weeks. The Warriors should be able to make quick work of the Pelicans, although I can’t wait to see what Anthony Davis can do in his first postseason action. Look for the Warriors to tighten their rotation in the playoffs, with more minutes going to all five starters, with the possible exception of Harrison Barnes. The Warriors are projected to score 107 points in Game 1 of this series, which is the second highest team total on the board on Saturday.
Opponent Breakdown (New Orleans)
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.5 (Rank: 12)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 22
Rebounding Differential Rank: 7
Elite Plays
Stephen Curry (FD: $10000, DK: $10100 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 28.4)
I’ve been waiting for weeks to finally be able to target the Warriors in cash games. With literally nothing to play for in the last few weeks of the season, it was extremely difficult predicting minutes down the stretch. That shouldn’t be an issue now that we are into the playoffs. Curry should see a boost in minutes during this series, which only boosts his fantasy appeal. The matchup against the Pelicans isn’t great, but he’s proven time and time again (see: Chris Paul) that he is matchup-proof.
Klay Thompson (FD: $7300, DK: $7300 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 27.3)
Thompson is one of the more undervalued players heading into the playoffs. His minutes have been up and down in the last few weeks, which has kept his price at a very playable level on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Thompson should see minutes in the upper 30’s in Game 1 and we all know the type of offensive production that he can provide when he gets hot. I have him ranked as my number two shooting guard in this slate, ahead of both Jimmy Butler and DeMar DeRozan.
Andrew Bogut (FD: $5400, DK: $5000 / MPG: 24 / Usage Rate: 13.3)
My exposure to Bogut in the first game of this series is going to be high. In fact, I’m contemplating using him as my only cash game center on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Am I crazy? I don’t think so, as this matchup sets up perfectly for him. The Warriors will need to play big to match up with the Pelicans’ frontcourt and I’m expecting a sizable uptick in minutes for the big Australian. Plus, as I mentioned earlier, value is tough to find here in the playoffs.
Secondary Plays
Draymond Green (FD: $7500, DK: $7200 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 17.2)
Milwaukee at Chicago – 7:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Chicago -7.5, 185.5 Over/Under
- Milwaukee Proj. Starters – Carter-Williams-Middleton-Antetokounmpo-Ilyasova-Pachulia
- Chicago Proj. Starters – Rose-Butler-Dunleavy-Gasol-Noah
| Milwaukee | Chicago | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 185.5 |  | Vegas Total | 185.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 7.5 | Vegas Sprd | -7.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 89.0 | Team Proj. | 96.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.47 | Team Pace | 95.27 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Michael Carter-Williams | Khris Middleton | Giannis Antetokounmpo | Ersan Ilyasova | Zaza Pachulia | Proj Starter | Derrick Rose | Jimmy Butler | Mike Dunleavy | Pau Gasol | Joakim Noah | |
| Opp. Season | 26 | 2 | 18 | 11 | 6 | Opp. Season | 1 | 7 | 24 | 13 | 15 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 5 | 14 | Opp. Last 7 | 11 | 1 | 15 | 19 | 8 | |
Milwaukee
The Bucks were lucky that the season ended when it did, as they were losing ground to the teams fighting for the seventh and eighth-seeds in the Eastern Conference. The Bucks are arguably playing their worst basketball of the season, as they head into a playoff series against the Bulls. This is a series that I expect to be rather lopsided, in favor of Chicago. In terms of their rotation, it will be interesting to see how Jason Kidd distributes the minutes. Typically, we see a boost for starters and veterans come playoff time, but his veterans are all coming off of the bench. In a difficult matchup against the Bulls, I see the Bucks as secondary options in Game 1 of this series.
Opponent Breakdown (Chicago)
Points Allowed Per Game: 98 (Rank: 10)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 11
Rebounding Differential Rank: 5
Elite Plays
NO ELITE PLAYS
Secondary Plays
Michael Carter-Williams (FD: $7400, DK: $7000 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 26.8)
Khris Middleton (FD: $6700, DK: $5800 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 19.8)
Ersan Ilyasova (FD: $5200, DK: $5700 / MPG: 23 / Usage Rate: 22.1)
O.J. Mayo (FD: $4600, DK: $4000 / MPG: 24 / Usage Rate: 23.3)
Chicago
The Bulls are hoping to be at full-strength for their series opener against the Bucks. Taj Gibson, Joakim Noah, and Derrick Rose all practiced on Friday and are all expected to play in Game 1. The Bulls have a number of productive players in their lineup, which really makes it tough predicting individual production when they are healthy. Additionally, their matchup against the Bucks is less than ideal. The Bucks were ranked seventh in points allowed per game and second in defensive efficiency during the regular season. This game has by far the lowest total of all of the Saturday games.
Opponent Breakdown (Milwaukee)
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.3 (Rank: 7)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 2
Rebounding Differential Rank: 19
Elite Plays
Pau Gasol (FD: $8900, DK: $8400 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 24.4)
As mentioned above, it’s difficult to predict where the Bulls’ production is going to come from now that they are all healthy. The one constant in this offense is Pau Gasol. He finished the regular season averaging 18 points, 12 rebounds, 3 assists, and 2 blocks per game. There is no reason to think that he can’t keep that level of production up in the playoffs. Gasol also played well against the Bucks in their four meetings this season, averaging 24 points, 13 rebounds, and 2 assists per contest.
Secondary Plays
Jimmy Butler (FD: $8300, DK: $7400 / MPG: 39 / Usage Rate: 21.7)
Mike Dunleavy (FD: $4300, DK: $4400 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 14.3)
Dallas at Houston – 9:30 PM
- Vegas Line – Houston -5.5, 210 Over/Under
- Dallas Proj. Starters – Rondo-Ellis-Parsons-Nowitzki-Chandler
- Houston Proj. Starters – Terry-Harden-Ariza-Jones-Howard
| Dallas | Houston | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 210 |  | Vegas Total | 210 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 5.5 | Vegas Sprd | -5.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 102.3 | Team Proj. | 107.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 97.33 | Team Pace | 99.14 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Rajon Rondo | Monta Ellis | Chandler Parsons | Dirk Nowitzki | Tyson Chandler | Proj Starter | Jason Terry | James Harden | Trevor Ariza | Terrence Jones | Dwight Howard | |
| Opp. Season | 3 | 19 | 19 | 27 | 21 | Opp. Season | 19 | 11 | 25 | 17 | 18 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 15 | 7 | 22 | 23 | 22 | Opp. Last 7 | 7 | 10 | 26 | 14 | 29 | |
Dallas
The Mavericks stumbled down the stretch of the regular season, but they’ve been injured and haven’t really played in a meaningful game for the better part of two weeks. This is a veteran ball club and I’m expecting a strong performance from them against the Rockets. I would not be surprised in the slightest to see the Mavericks advance. While the Rockets are one of the most efficient teams defensively, their fast pace of play makes up for their stifling defense. The Mavericks are projected to score 102 points, which is the third-highest team total on the board.
Opponent Breakdown (Houston)
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.6 (Rank: 17)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 6
Rebounding Differential Rank: 15
Elite Plays
Dirk Nowitzki (FD: $6300, DK: $6700 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 25.1)
Nowitzki is one of the many veteran players that will see a major uptick in minutes during the playoffs. He averaged 30 minutes per game during the regular season and that number will likely jump to 35+ here in the postseason. Nowitzki has a ton of playoff experience and the Mavericks will likely lean on him offensively. He also draws a terrific matchup against Terrence Jones and the Rockets, who were ranked 27th against power forwards during the regular season.
Secondary Plays
Tyson Chandler (FD: $6000, DK: $6000 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 12.7)
Monta Ellis (FD: $6400, DK: $6600 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 27.8)
Rajon Rondo (FD: $6200, DK: $6500 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 19.5)
Al-Farouq Aminu (FD: $4500, DK: $4000 / MPG: 18 / Usage Rate: 15.2)
Houston
The Rockets had everything go their way on the final night of the regular season and they were fortunate enough to be able to secure the second-seed in the Western Conference. They will be without Patrick Beverley and Donatas Motiejunas, but they will have the rest of their players at their disposal against the Mavericks. This is arguably the best matchup on the board, as the Mavericks were ranked 25th in points allowed per game and 30th in rebounding differential during the regular season.
Opponent Breakdown (Dallas)
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.4 (Rank: 25)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 18
Rebounding Differential Rank: 30
Elite Plays
James Harden (FD: $11000, DK: $10500 / MPG: 37 / Usage Rate: 31.3)
Harden and the Rockets will look to advance out of the first-round this season, after losing a very tough series against the Blazers in last year’s playoffs. Harden is right there with Anthony Davis as the top overall play on the board and he’s actually quite a bit cheaper than Davis is on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Harden has 50+ fantasy point potential every time he steps onto the floor and I’m expecting a big series from the beard.
Dwight Howard (FD: $7400, DK: $6800 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 23.3)
Howard is a little expensive on FanDuel, but he’s sitting at a very playable $6,800 on DraftKings. It may not be a bad idea to roster two centers (Howard and Bogut) in cash games on DraftKings. Howard will have his minutes restriction increased to 32 minutes for Game 1 of the series, which is more than enough time for him to reach value at his price point. While Tyson Chandler is a solid defender, the Mavericks were ranked dead last in rebounding differential this season.
Secondary Plays
Trevor Ariza (FD: $6400, DK: $6000 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 16.8)
Terrence Jones (FD: $5900, DK: $5900 / MPG: 27 / Usage Rate: 19.2)