NBA Grind Down: Thursday, February 26th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review.
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Golden State at Cleveland – 8:00 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Cleveland -3.5, 215.5 Over/Under
- Golden State Proj. Starters – Curry-Thompson-Barnes-Green-Bogut
- Cleveland Proj. Starters – Irving-Smith-James-Love-Mozgov
| Golden State | Cleveland | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 215.5 |  | Vegas Total | 215.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 3.5 | Vegas Sprd | -3.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 106.0 | Team Proj. | 109.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 101.09 | Team Pace | 94.89 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Stephen Curry | Klay Thompson | Harrison Barnes | Draymond Green | Andrew Bogut | Proj Starter | Kyrie Irving | J.R. Smith | LeBron James | Kevin Love | Timofey Mozgov | |
| Opp. Season | 10 | 21 | 26 | 17 | 13 | Opp. Season | 7 | 11 | 8 | 16 | 18 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 10 | 4 | 10 | 8 | 7 | Opp. Last 7 | 4 | 22 | 17 | 11 | 4 | |
Golden State
The Warriors own the NBA’s best record at 44-10. The fact that they are 3.5-point underdogs tonight just goes to show how well the Cavaliers have been playing recently. We are far from the playoffs, but there is a chance that we could be seeing an NBA Finals preview. The Warriors’ matchup against the Cavaliers is mediocre at best. The Cavaliers have improved to 12th in points allowed per game and eighth in rebounding differential this season. This game should be played at a very quick pace though and there should be plenty of points to go around.
Opponent Breakdown (Cleveland)
Record: 36-22
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.7 (Rank: 12)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 22
Rebounding Differential Rank: 8
Elite Plays
Stephen Curry (FD: $10300, DK: $9800 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 28.3)
After sitting out one game with an ankle injury, Curry came back with a vengeance against the Wizards. He finished the game with 32 points and 8 assists. He has 50 fantasy point upside every time he takes the floor and he should see an uptick in minutes tonight, as this game is expected to be close throughout. Curry typically plays 35+ minutes in close games. He also draws a favorable matchup against Kyrie Irving.
Draymond Green (FD: $6900, DK: $6700 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 16.3)
Green’s minutes are trending upward, yet his price has come down across the industry. Both of those help his fantasy appeal tonight against the Cavaliers. Green has played at least 33 minutes in six of his last eight games. He draws a favorable matchup against Kevin Love, who has never been known for his play on the defensive end of floor. He is one of the top small forward options on FanDuel and one of the top power forward options on DraftKings.
Secondary Plays
Klay Thompson (FD: $7100, DK: $7800 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 27.7)
Thompson isn’t usually my favorite cash game play, but on a night with only two games, he deserves strong consideration in all league formats. His price is reasonable across the industry, especially on FanDuel at only $7,100. The Cavaliers have struggled to contain shooting guards this season, allowing the 10th-most fantasy points to the position.
Andre Iguodala (FD: $4500, DK: $3900 / MPG: 27 / Usage Rate: 13.1)
Iguodala comes off the bench, but he has been playing more minutes that Harrison Barnes recently. In fact, over his last 10 games, he has averaged 22.5 fantasy points in 28 minutes per contest. If you are looking for a value play at small forward, Iguodala is the preferred play over Harrison Barnes and Kyle Singler.
Cleveland
The Cavaliers have won eight of their last 10 games and are now only a game and a half out of the two seed in the Eastern Conference. It’s incredible how much the story has changed in a month’s time. The Cavaliers are small favorites at home tonight against the Warriors, who currently own the best record in the NBA. While the Warriors are ranked first in defensive efficiency, their pace of play helps offset their stifling defense. On the season, the Warriors are ranked 18th in points allowed per game.
Opponent Breakdown (Golden State)
Record: 44-10
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.8 (Rank: 18)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 1
Rebounding Differential Rank: 15
Elite Plays
LeBron James (FD: $10400, DK: $10300 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 32.9)
James is the premier play at small forward tonight. That’s typically the case on any night, but especially considering the fact that there are only two games on tonight’s schedule. The question isn’t whether he makes a good play, it’s whether or not you can squeeze him into your lineups. It’s tough to fade Russell Westbrook without Kevin Durant in the lineup and Stephen Curry is a strong play as well. James’ production has been down recently, but that’s due to the fact that his minutes have been limited in blowouts. He could see upward of 40 minutes tonight against the Warriors.
Timofey Mozgov (FD: $5800, DK: $5300 / MPG: 26 / Usage Rate: 15.5)
Mozgov has been surprisingly consistent over the last few weeks. He has now scored at least 23 fantasy points in eight of his last nine games, with an average of 26 fantasy points per contest. He draws a favorable matchup against the Warriors, who are ranked 18th against centers this season. Alex Len is my top target at center tonight, but Mozgov is a close second.
Secondary Plays
Kevin Love (FD: $8300, DK: $7800 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 21.9)
Love has been inconsistent recently, but at least he’s shown that he is capable of producing bit fantasy outings. He has scored at least 36 fantasy points in five of his last nine games. His price is reasonable across the industry, especially on DraftKings at only $7,800. The one thing holding him back from being an elite play is his matchup against the pesky Draymond Green.
J.R. Smith (FD: $5300, DK: $5000 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 20.3)
Smith is coming off of a disappointing game against the Pistons, but prior to that, he had scored at least 25 fantasy points in each of his previous four games. Smith is a viable option at shooting guard tonight, as the options at the position are limited. He will have to deal with Klay Thompson though, who has become one of the best perimeter defenders in the NBA.
Oklahoma City at Phoenix – 10:30 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Oklahoma City -5, 217 Over/Under
- Oklahoma City Proj. Starters – Westbrook-Roberson-Singler-Ibaka-Kanter
- Phoenix Proj. Starters – Bledsoe-Knight-Tucker-Morris-Len
| Oklahoma City | Phoenix | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 217 |  | Vegas Total | 217 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -5.0 | Vegas Sprd | 5.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 111.0 | Team Proj. | 106.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 97.54 | Team Pace | 99.31 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Russell Westbrook | Andre Roberson | Kyle Singler | Serge Ibaka | Enes Kanter | Proj Starter | Eric Bledsoe | Brandon Knight | P.J. Tucker | Markieff Morris | Alex Len | |
| Opp. Season | 14 | 23 | 27 | 9 | 21 | Opp. Season | 27 | 4 | 15 | 22 | 4 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 27 | 21 | 21 | 26 | 7 | Opp. Last 7 | 22 | 9 | 13 | 12 | 14 | |
Oklahoma City
While there are only two games on tonight’s schedule, we couldn’t ask for a better double-header. The Thunder head to Phoenix to take on the Suns in a game that could be pivotal in the Western Conference playoff picture. The Thunder have overtaken the Suns for the eighth and final playoff spot, but they are only two and a half games ahead of them in the standings. The Thunder are listed as five-point favorites tonight in what is expected to be a close, high-scoring game. The Suns provide a terrific matchup, as they are ranked 28th in points allowed per game and 25th in rebounding differential this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Phoenix)
Record: 30-28
Points Allowed Per Game: 105 (Rank: 28)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 20
Rebounding Differential Rank: 25
Elite Plays
Russell Westbrook (FD: $11000, DK: $11300 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 36.1)
Kevin Durant is not expected to play tonight, which means Westbrook should be locked and loaded in your cash games. At this point, he’s a tough fade regardless of the league type. Over his last five games, he has averaged 51 fantasy points in only 30 minutes of action per contest. If tonight’s game stays close, he could see minutes in the upper 30s. His price is up across the industry, but it’s not high enough to fade him. He is the top overall fantasy option at any position.
Serge Ibaka (FD: $7200, DK: $7900 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 19.2)
Ibaka has been on a tear over his last four games, averaging 20 points, 13 rebounds, and 3.5 blocks per contest. He has been more involved offensively and he is finally starting to post some double-doubles. He draws a favorable matchup against the Suns, who are one of the worst rebounding teams in the NBA this season. Keep riding the hot hand of Ibaka. He has just as much upside as Kevin Love and is actually a bit cheaper on FanDuel.
Secondary Plays
Enes Kanter (FD: $5800, DK: $5900 / MPG: 27 / Usage Rate: 24.9)
Kanter came back down to Earth the other night against the Pacers, but he still managed to score 21 fantasy points in 23 minutes. The only reason he played 23 minutes was because the bench took over in the fourth quarter and the starters didn’t need to come back in the game. Kanter should see close to 30 minutes against the Suns, but I still have him ranked behind both Alex Len and Timofey Mozgov. Your choice at center may end up being the difference between winning and losing tonight.
Dion Waiters (FD: $4500, DK: $4100 / MPG: 25 / Usage Rate: 23.2)
Waiters has not played well recently, but his minutes and shot attempts have both been up with Kevin Durant out of the lineup. It’s only a matter of time before his shot starts to fall and that could very well come tonight in a fast-paced game against the Suns. Waiters has a very high usage rate and he has been seeing close to 30 minutes per game with Durant out.
Phoenix
The Suns need to turn things around if they want to have any chance at making the playoffs. They have lost eight of their last 10 games and have been one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA during that stretch. They have a tall task ahead of them tonight, but their matchup against the Thunder offers them a chance to make up some ground. If they can pull off the win tonight, the Suns would only be a game and a half out of the eighth-seed. Their matchup against the Thunder doesn’t look great on paper, but the pace of the game should help offset the tough matchup.
Opponent Breakdown (Oklahoma City)
Record: 32-25
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.5 (Rank: 11)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 9
Rebounding Differential Rank: 2
Elite Plays
Eric Bledsoe (FD: $8400, DK: $7900 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 23.7)
Bledsoe has flourished playing with his new backcourt mate, Brandon Knight. Over his last three games, Bledsoe has averaged 17 points, 7 rebounds, and 8 assists per game. He draws a favorable matchup against Russell Westbrook and the Thunder, who have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing point guards. What’s even better is that Bledsoe is still listed as a shooting guard, which allows us to roster an extra point guard.
P.J. Tucker (FD: $4900, DK: $5400 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 12.7)
Tucker has been on a roll recently, scoring at least 24 fantasy points in each of his last six games. He will likely be the most popular play at small forward tonight and for good reason. He draws a favorable matchup against Kyle Singler and his price is very affordable on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Tucker should be able to keep his hot streak going tonight.
Alex Len (FD: $5000, DK: $4900 / MPG: 21 / Usage Rate: 13.3)
Len is my favorite center tonight in all league formats. While foul trouble is always a concern (the reason why he only played 21 minutes last night), his price is too low to pass up. Len’s minutes are trending in the right direction, as he has averaged 28.2 fantasy points in 30 minutes per game over his last four outings.
Secondary Plays
Markieff Morris (FD: $6500, DK: $6400 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 23.4)
Morris is one of the more frustrating players in daily fantasy basketball. He has a ton of talent, but he can’t seem to put it all together night in and night out. He has been inconsistent all season long. He makes a decent play tonight though, as there are few options at power forward.