NFL Prop Bets: Best Picks for AFC and NFC Championship Games

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Conference Championship Weekend kicks off on Sunday, and online sports betting have already posted NFL props for both the AFC and NFC Championship games. Here’s a look at our favorite NFL props bets for Sunday.

NFL Playoffs: AFC and NFC Championship Betting Lines

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Also read AFC & NFC Championship Picks: Most Passing, Receiving, Rushing Yards

AFC Championship: Titans vs. Chiefs Props

Joe Cistaro: On Sunday, the Titans meet the heavily-favored Chiefs in a good matchup for Tennessee’s typical gameplan.

The gameplan? Run the football… a lot. Derrick Henry carried the ball 34 and then 30 times in the first two playoff matchups. With 377 total rushing yards thus far, daily fantasy faders are paying the price for avoiding Henry. I am done betting against Henry and will take his over 109.5 rushing yards prop on DraftKings Sportsbook. I prefer the +100 price versus the -118 for over 108.5 rushing yards on FanDuel.

The Chiefs allowed 4.9 yards per rushing attempt throughout the regular season and will face a team content to run the ball all game. Correlated to my previous prop, I want under Ryan Tannehill 235.5 passing yard total for -125 on DraftKings. Tannehill has not exceeded 100 passing yards in the postseason and will not attempt enough passes unless the Titans fall way behind.

Finally, let’s complete the correlation with the over on Patrick Mahomes passing total. The Titans finished the season in the bottom ten in opponent passing yards per game and will likely struggle to contain a healthy Chiefs defense. I will take over 302.5 passing yards for Mahomes on DraftKings Sportsbook at -112.

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Matt Schmitto: As Joe alluded to, we know what the Titans are going to try to do: run the ball. But what if the game gets away from them? All it takes is a few stops for the Chiefs defense and a couple of quick scoring plays from the Chiefs high-octane offense.

I expect the Titans to be playing catch-up sooner than later Sunday, which sets up well for over 62.5 receiving yards and over 3.5 receptions for A.J. Brown. The rookie from Ole Miss made history this season by becoming the first receiver to post 1,000 receiving yards on less than 94 targets. He has the explosiveness to reach the 63-yard mark on just a few catches. If the Titans are trailing by double-digits for most of the second half, Brown will be in store for well over his receptions prop. Brown’s $5,200 DFS price tag at DraftKings is especially enticing.

Though the Chiefs will likely force the Titans to throw the ball eventually, I still think Henry will get over 22.5 rush attempts. Henry has carried the ball 96 times over the last three weeks. I don’t see his carries falling by nearly 33 percent whether the Chiefs jump out to an early lead or not.

Finally, DraftKings Sportsbooks is running a Superstar Touchdown Boost for each of the NFL conference championships. That means we get +1000 on players like Damien Williams +550, Derrick Henry +550, Travis Kelce +650 and Tyreek +650. I lean towards using the boost on Henry and Kelce, but I wouldn’t argue against using it on any of the guys above.

NFC Championship: Packers vs. 49ers Props

Joe Cistaro: The 49ers dominated the Vikings in their opening playoff game — holding the Vikings to 147 total yards and possessing the football for more than 38 minutes.

Jimmy Garoppolo didn’t need to do much against the Vikings — passing for only 131 yards on 19 attempts. The Packers allowed 4.7 yards per rushing attempt to opposing backs this season. Looking to exploit that, I presume the 49ers will continue with a run-heavy gameplan. Give me the under 246.5 Passing yards on FanDuel as I sacrifice three yards for the -112 price (under 249.5 is -130 on DraftKings).

Continuing with the aforementioned narrative, I like the under on 65.5 rushing yards for Aaron Jones on FanDuel Sportsbook (-118). Jones needed 21 carries to collect 62 rushing yards in a far softer matchup against the Seahawks last weekend. Against the 49ers’ front, I cannot imagine that improving especially if the Packers are playing from behind.

If the Packers do play from behind as the 7.5-point spread suggests, I do like Davante Adams to go over 6.5 Receptions at FanDuel Sports (-143). Adams averaged 7.9 yards per target — ranking 66th in the NFL despite being the most reliable target for Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers will be under siege all game. Look for quick passes and screens to Adams to get the ball in his hands.

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Matt Schmitto: The first time the Packers and 49ers met, the 49ers managed to sack Aaron Rodgers five times while holding him to a career-low 3.2 yards per completion. Not only did Rodgers have arguably the worst game in his career, but his 104 yards was the lowest passing yards for an NFL quarterback with 20 or more attempts in nearly 50 years.

Part of the reason for the Packers’ lack of success in Week 12 was due to the early departure of starting right tackle Bryan Bulaga. Bulaga is healthy heading into Sunday, but it’ll still be tough for Rodgers to pass on the 49ers. Rodgers passing yards prop is set at 239.5 yards at DraftKings Sportsbook. He’s surpassed that mark only three times over the last nine games, and six times all season including last week’s game against the Seahawks. I’m rolling with under 239.5 yards for Rodgers against the 49ers’ second-ranked DVOA versus the pass.

If you’re looking for a receiving prop to bet on, I can’t disagree with Joe on Davante Adams over 6.5 receptions. I think Adams’ receptions prop is a bit safer than his yards. Rodgers has targeted Adams 53 times over the last four weeks. He’s on a four-game streak of 90+ receiving yards, but the 49ers were able to contain Adams to merely 43 receiving yards despite catching 7 of 12 targets back in November.

As for the running game, Aaron Jones used the last quarter of the season to cement himself as the Packers workhorse on the ground. Since splitting snaps with back-up running back Jamaal Williams in Week 12, Jones’ workload has steadily increased. Against the Seahawks, the Jones was on the field for 84% of the Packers’ snaps.

I can see Williams getting some time as a pass-catcher if the Packers are playing from behind, but the bulk of the carries will go toward Jones. Packers head coach Matt LaFleur has called Jones’ name 68 times as Jones has had at least 21 carries in each of his last three games. The Packers will continue to turn #33 as they try to avoid a tough pass defense in the NFC Championship. I like Jones to get over 14.5 carries (-130) at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Image Credit: USA Today Sports Images

About the Author

schmitto
Matt Schmitto (schmitto)

Matt Schmitto is an Organic Strategy Lead for Better Collective. He was introduced to daily fantasy sports in 2012 and soon became a member at RotoGrinders. Seven years later, Schmitto joined RotoGrinders Network full time as a staff writer shortly after the Supreme Court overturned PASPA. He has since covered important stories in the sports betting and fantasy sports industries for sites like SportsHandle and USBets and has had roles as a sports betting editor and commercial content manager. He continues to play DFS and loves placing Futures bets at sportsbooks. His favorite DFS sites are DraftKings, Underdog Fantasy, and PrizePicks. Follow Schmitto on Twitter – @Matt_Schmitto