NFL Wild Card Odds: Steelers vs. Chiefs Picks and Prediction

by Nick Galaida (nickgalaida) Last Updated 2022-01-16 21:18:20

Steelers vs. Chiefs Odds

This evening, Ben Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh Steelers will travel to Arrowhead Stadium to take on Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs. Pittsburgh achieved a highly improbable Wild Card position, defeating the Cleveland Browns in Week 17 and the Baltimore Ravens in Week 18–in addition to getting a lot of help from other teams on the bubble. Kansas City started the campaign slow, but won nine of 10 games to end the season tied for the best record in the AFC. Oddsmakers are anticipating a blowout in this matchup, pricing the Chiefs as 12.5-point home favorites on the spread.

Steelers

It is no secret that the Steelers have one of the worst offensive lines in the entire league. Still, this unit should be able to create at least a little bit of room for Najee Harris to have a strong game on the ground. In Week 16, Harris received 19 carries for 93 rushing yards. Pro Football Focus, Roethlisberger graded 37th out of 39 eligible quarterbacks this season under center. It is likely to be a very difficult day for the Pittsburgh passing attack in a hostile environment.

During the regular season, Pittsburgh ranked 18th in opponent passing yards per attempt, but 11th in opponent passer rating. Since Week 12, this pass defense has been even better–allowing only 5.6 yards-per-attempt and a 60.0 percent completion rate. In that span, this defense played notable quarterbacks such as Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, Kirk Cousins, Ryan Tannehill, and Patrick Mahomes. The more pressing issue for the Steelers defense is stopping the run. Nobody allowed more yards-per-carry on the ground in 2021 than the Steelers. Since Week 10, Pittsburgh has allowed 5.5 yards-per-carry to their opponents, who have averaged 178.3 yards-per-game in that stretch.

Chiefs

We have not been shy about criticizing Patrick Mahomes this year for his erratic play. His 13 interceptions ranked well below league average for starting NFL quarterbacks this fall. Fortunately for Kansas City fans, Mahomes played much better over the final two months of the regular season–posting a 12-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio over his final five games played. In Week 16, Mahomes put together a masterful performance against Pittsburgh’s secondary–throwing for three touchdowns and 258 yards in a 36-10 victory.

From Week 1 to Week 5, the Chiefs allowed 10 passing touchdowns, 296.4 yards-per-game, and a 67.9 completion percentage. From Week 6 to Week 18, Kansas City held opposing quarterbacks to a 15-to-11 touchdown-to-interception ratio and only 6.1 yards-per-attempt. When these two teams met in Week 16, the Chiefs held Roethlisberger to 159 passing yards on 35 attempts in a convincing 36-10 victory. If there is any concern for this defense, it is stopping the run. Despite the negative game script for Pittsburgh in Week 16, Harris and Snell Jr. combined for 113 rushing yards on 24 carries. Only the Steelers allowed more yards-per-carry on the ground during the regular season.

Wild Card Prediction

Per EdgHouse, the Chiefs are 4-4 ATS this season when favored by greater than a touchdown. Pittsburgh is 4-2 ATS when priced as greater than a field goal underdog. Instead of risking a wager on such a large spread, bettors should instead turn their attention to the total. The Under is 4-2 in games in which Kansas City is favored by a touchdown or more when playing at home. The Under is 4-2 when Pittsburgh is priced as heavier than a field goal underdog. Expect a lower-scoring affair between two teams that are likely to run the ball early and often today.

PICK: Under 46.5

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