PGA Championship Betting & DFS Notes: Line Movement, Weather Report, & Big Bets

Article Image

The first major championship of 2020 is just hours away, and not only is there still time make your PGA Championship golf picks at online sportsbooks before the morning wave tees off at TPC Harding Park (10 am ET), but there’s also plenty of news to digest. From weather reports to line movement and big bets, here’s what you need to know in preparation for the next four days of golf betting.

Read More

Gone With the Wind?

One of the more noteworthy items, at least for those betting on golf and playing PGA DFS, is this week’s weather. According to RotoGrinders Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth, there might be an edge for half of this week’s field.

Thursday’s forecast starts with light winds, which increase to 5-10mph near noon. Winds will continue to climb throughout the day, and those with tee times in the afternoon could battle wind gusts of up to 25mph.

Tee times flip in the second round, as those who tee off Thursday morning get to sleep in on Friday and vice versa. Golf is rarely a game of fairness, and this week, it’s Thursday afternoon golfers who get the short end of the stick.

To what extent will tee times play a factor in who does and doesn’t make the cut? Unfortunately—or maybe fortunately—that’s up for debate.

If you’re playing showdown slates or betting on first-round leader, go ahead and narrow your selection pool to Thursday AM golfers only. However, whether there will be an edge on the standard slate—and if so, how significant—is to be seen.

Roth believes there will be slightly lower winds overall for Thursday AM/Friday PM tee times, but Thursday and Friday could be similar enough that you don’t need to fade those Thursday afternoon golfers entirely. There’s also a good chance for depressed ownership on DFS slates for the Thursday PM wave, which can make the difference in large GPPs like DraftKings Millionaire Maker.

Another way to take advantage of the wind changes between AM and PM tee times in a specific round is by signing up to play at Monkey Knife Fight. You’ll find a matchup between Dustin Johnson (+0.5) vs. Bryson DeChambeau in MKF’s game More or Less, where you pick which golfer will finish the round with fewer strokes.

We might not know how significant the tee time draw is for the first two rounds yet, but we do know early tee times will have an edge in a given round. In this case, Johnson tees off Thursday morning while DeChambeau tees off later in the afternoon for Round 1. Lock in Johnson +0.5 Thursday, then find similar matchups when MKF posts games for subsequent rounds of the PGA Championship.

Read More

Too Cool for Tiger

Wind isn’t the only thing stirring trepidation among golf bettors. Despite a victory at TPC Harding in 2005 and a dominant Presidents’ Cup performance four years later, bettors are fading Tiger Woods as he returns to the Bay Area in August.

At FanDuel Sportsbook, Tiger is the most popular golfer bet on To Miss the Cut (+164), and his odds moved to +3500 after opening +2000, per golfodds.com.

Skepticism stems from both Tiger’s lack of tournament appearances in 2020 and concern for how his body will hold up. After all, sweater weather isn’t exactly ideal for loosening up a stiff back.

Of course, there’s a fair share of bets on Woods to win his 16th major, too, but this time he’s behind Brooks Koepka, Rory McIlroy, Bryson DeChambeau and Justin Thomas in terms of the betting handle.

FWIW, Tiger is bundled up and doesn’t sound too concerned. And oh yeah, while Justin Thomas and Koepka were battling in Memphis, Woods was already at Harding Park.

Advantage, Big Boys

At least that’s what Koepka alluded to on Tuesday when he referred to TPC Harding as a big-boy golf course. “It’s going to play quite long, so I think it kind of plays into my hands,” Koepka said.

Sitting on Lake Merced, the 7200-yard par 70 will play longer than what it reads on scorecards. Seven par 4s stretch at least 460 yards, and given the cool, heavy air, golf balls won’t travel near as far as they have most of the summer.

Bryson DeChambeau and Rory McIlroy echoed similar sentiments.

DeChambeau, one of the few top names to avoid a press conference ahead of the PGA Championship, told Golf Channel’s Todd Lewis that the golf course suits a bomber, if they can hit it straight.

McIlroy said that a lot of courses try to handcuff longer hitters, but, “here the course just lets you play, which I like.”

There are conflicting reports about how penal the rough will be for those who miss Harding’s thinned fairways. Whatever the case, all signs point towards DeChambeau pulling out his driver early and often, one of the reasons I like him as a DFS tournament play this week.

His golf odds are too short to bet on, and USBets’ John Brennan thinks he’s too stubborn to finish inside the top 10 of a major, but his aggressive play lends itself to scoring at DraftKings, which awards +3 points for birdies, +8 for eagles, and only +0.5 and -0.5, respectfully, for pars and bogeys. There are at least two par 4s that should be gettable for DeChambeau and other bombers, and only the longest hitters will be putting for eagle on the No. 7 600-yard par 5.

The less-controversial and easier-to-root-for Tony Finau also fits this mold. Even better, Finau comes in at a bargain price of $7,900 on DraftKings.

Schauffele, Koepka Garner Bettors’ Attention

I included Xander Schauffele +2200 in my PGA Championship Golf Betting Picks Monday morning. Over the course of the week the 26-year-old has become one of the more popular picks across the sports betting industry. Oddsmakers have reacted accordingly, shortening Schauffele’s odds to +1600.

Henrik Stenson, another one of our golf picks, moved from +12500 to +8000 at Pointsbet.

The largest bet at FanDuel Sportsbook is $10K on Brooks Koepka +1100, placed Tuesday for a potential payout of $120K

One of the widest discrepancies in golf odds between online sportsbooks is on Billy Horschel. Horschel is +12500 at FOXBet compared to +6000 at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Read More

U.S. Open, The Masters Right Around the Corner

It’s not only the beginning of an exciting golf betting week, but as Jim Nantz said, “we’re about to enter the greatest stretch of golf in the history of the game,” referring to the fact that golf fans will be delivered seven majors over the next 11 months.

With two of them right around the corner, be sure to keep your eye on golf odds for the U.S. Open and Masters as the PGA Championship progresses.

The U.S. Open is scheduled for Sep. 17 at Winged Foot Golf Club, while the revised PGA Tour schedule pushed the Masters back to Nov. 12.

So say someone like Tony Finau plays well enough to put himself in contention heading into the final round of the PGA Championship. If he closes the deal, or comes close to doing so, his odds of +5000 for the U.S. Open are sure to shorten sooner rather than later.

Similarly, Henrik Stenson, who is currently +9000 to win the Masters at Unibet, is another golfer to watch. Stenson not only has a T5 at Augusta as recently as 2018, but he consistently plays well on the biggest stages. Stenson made his first appearance of the year last week, which partially explains his long odds. If the Swede competes for his second major on Sunday, you can count those odds as good as gone.

Image Credit: USA Today Sports Images

About the Author

schmitto
Matt Schmitto (schmitto)

Matt Schmitto is an Organic Strategy Lead for Better Collective. He was introduced to daily fantasy sports in 2012 and soon became a member at RotoGrinders. Seven years later, Schmitto joined RotoGrinders Network full time as a staff writer shortly after the Supreme Court overturned PASPA. He has since covered important stories in the sports betting and fantasy sports industries for sites like SportsHandle and USBets and has had roles as a sports betting editor and commercial content manager. He continues to play DFS and loves placing Futures bets at sportsbooks. His favorite DFS sites are DraftKings, Underdog Fantasy, and PrizePicks. Follow Schmitto on Twitter – @Matt_Schmitto