RotoGrinders Matchup of the Week: Week 12
Saints at Rams
Vegas-Implied Total: Rams 28.0, Saints 25.5
KEY MATCHUPS:
Rams Run D – 20th DVOA / 27th Yards allowed per carry
Saints Run O – 1st DVOA / 1st Yards per carry
Rams Pass D – 3rd DVOA / 13th Yards allowed per pass attempt
Saints Pass O – 5th DVOA / 3rd Yards per pass attempt
Saints Run D – 26th DVOA / 30th Yards allowed per carry
Rams Run O – 16th DVOA / 15th Yards per carry
Saints Pass D – 4th DVOA / 16th Yards allowed per pass attempt
Rams Pass O – 4th DVOA / 2nd Yards per pass attempt
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Probably the thing we love most of all about the Saints these days is how narrow their offensive distribution has become. It may not feel that way, with Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram creating tough decisions for us in the backfield, but this is no longer a team on which we constantly have to wonder, “Which wide receiver will get the work?” As noted last week: as Drew Brees has seen his attempts drop, Michael Thomas has seen his targets rise. He has double-digit targets in three straight games, and only one game all year under eight targets. He’s going to get his looks this week, and he has a winnable matchup on the outside against Trumaine Johnson. I do keep reading – I mean, keep reading, everywhere I look, on seemingly every site I look – about the “positive touchdown regression” Thomas is soon going to experience. Let’s be clear: “Positive touchdown regression” means a guy is seeing looks close to the goal line, and is not scoring. Thomas is not a big yards-after-catch guy, and he’s not a downfield burner. As such, his touchdowns come from red zone looks. That’s how he has scored nine of his 11 career touchdowns. In fact, eight of his 11 career touchdowns have come on passes inside the 10-yard-line. Last year, he had 19 red zone looks, with 11 coming inside the 10. This year, he has six red zone looks, with three coming inside the 10. He scored on six of his 11 targets inside the 10 last year; he has scored on two of his three targets this year. If anything, touchdown regression should work the other way for Thomas – as in, he has turned 66.7% of his 2017 “inside the 10” targets into touchdowns, which would be an unsustainable rate.
Basically, that’s a lot of words to show that Thomas is not getting unlucky in scoring position. He’s not being used as much in scoring position. Yes, his usage could change one week. But Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara have combined for 50 red zone touches, while Thomas has touched the ball three times in the red zone. As always, we should expect one of the highest floors among NFL receivers for Thomas. We should also expect scoring upside to be limited. Again: that doesn’t mean he can’t score. It just means we have to view it as a bonus if he does – and we should certainly not be waiting for that “two-touchdown game that is coming soon, as positive touchdown regression sets in” (which is a prediction I read somewhere earlier today).
Any time a player experiences incredible efficiency (scoring on a high percentage of their touches, and/or turning a large percentage of their touches into big plays), that player will become overpriced for their floor. As I have mentioned several consecutive weeks, this is the case for Alvin Kamara. As I said last week: you can absolutely, 100% take a shot on him. The guy has been a monster this year. But if you do take a shot, keep in mind that this is a guy who has touched the ball 14, 17, 16, and 11 times across his last four games – priced like a 25-touch back. We’ve seen Kamara’s ceiling – but realize that he’s going to sprinkle in a couple 10-point games somewhere along the way. It’s a moderate-floor, high-ceiling play, rather than the “high-floor, high-ceiling” play he has looked like for the last few weeks.
Mark Ingram has also experienced incredible efficiency the last couple weeks, with 265 yards and four rushing touchdowns on only 32 carries. I love this matchup for both Kamara and Ingram – and against a Rams defense that is much easier to attack on the ground, each guy sets up well for a big game. Each guy is very usable in tourneys. You can even make a case for these guys in cash. But again: Realize that Ingram’s floor is what he showed in Week 9 (16-77-0 on the ground; 1-2-0 through the air), while Kamara’s floor is what he showed in Week 6 (10-75-0 on the ground; 3-12-0 through the air).
The rest of this Saints attack is best left alone in cash, and there are better plays out there in tourneys. Drew Brees can always join the QB discussion, and as mentioned last week, Ted Ginn is the first guy who will see touches if the Saints have to open up the offense beyond their Big Three, but there are other places I would rather go.
The Rams are likely to stick to the run as well, as they have for much of the season (29th in passing play percentage) – against a New Orleans team that ranks fourth in DVOA against the pass, but 26th against the run. Especially with Robert Woods out, the Rams’ passing attack is best left alone altogether outside of large-field tourneys. (While some will wonder “Where are Woods’ targets going to go?” it’s worth pointing out that Woods’ spike in targets the last couple weeks corresponded with a spike in overall passing volume for Goff; against a New Orleans team that allows the fourth-fewest opponent plays per game and is much easier to attack on the ground, we should see Goff drop back to about 28 to 30 pass attempts, which means we nearly lose all of Woods’ targets from the last couple weeks right there.)
The best place to look on the Rams – and one of the best places to look on the slate – is Todd Gurley. After seeing his touches drop in blowout wins over the Texans, Giants, and Cardinals (with his touches also dropping last week against a Vikings defense the Rams chose to attack more heavily through the air), he should bounce back to the 20+ carries and four to eight targets he was seeing early in the year. Gurley also ranks second in the NFL in red zone carries, second in carries inside the 10, and first in carries inside the five. The winner of this game will be in position to chase down a first-round bye for the playoffs, and I expect the Rams to leave it all on the field with their star back. He’s the top on-paper play of the week among all high-priced running backs and wide receivers on the DraftKings main slate, and he is right behind Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown on FanDuel.
Guys I Like In Cash Games: Michael Thomas, Todd Gurley
Guys I Like In Tourneys: Both of the above, plus: Drew Brees, Alvin Kamara, Mark Ingram, Ted Ginn
What Our Experts Are Saying (NFL Premium)
The Reid Option
Todd Gurley vs NO ($8800 DK, $8500 FD, $15,300 FDRAFT) – Gurley has actually been held under 20 touches in each of the past three straight games while Sean McVay has shrewdly saved his flavor for later in season. I believe that all stops here; this game’s importance to the Rams can’t be overstated, as a win puts them in the driver’s seat for a first-round bye in the playoffs and perhaps even home field advantage throughout. On the other hand, if the Rams lose, they are likely to fall out of the lead in their own division with the Seahawks playing the cupcake 49ers. It’s also reasonable to think Gurley is leaned on with top receiving weapon Robert Woods out, and the weakness of the Saints is their rush defense (26th in DVOA), not the pass (4th in DVOA). I’m betting that Gurley tops 25 touches here as the Rams go all out to win this critical game.
Sammy Watkins vs NO ($4900 DK, $5900 FD, $9500 FDRAFT) – It would be a stretch to think that Watkins will immediately step into Woods’ 7.0 targets per game, but he should certainly see an uptick in looks with Woods out. Making his situation better is the dubious status of starting CBs Marshon Lattimore and Ken Crawley, leaving this as a plus matchup for SamWat should they be unable to suit up. Cooper Kupp (slot) and Michael D Thomas (Woods’ likely replacement) are both semi-intriguing plays as well, but we’ve seen Watkins flash as a #1 receiver in the past and his team needs him to step up here.
DraftKings Expert Survey
What is your favorite correlation of the week and why?
STLCardinals84: Jared Goff to Sammy Watkins – The Saints have posted solid pass defense numbers this year, but a lot of that is due to the emergence of stud CB Marshon Lattimore. With Lattimore injured and unlikely to be available this week, you can upgrade the matchup for the Rams’ passing game significantly. Sammy Watkins has struggled in tough matchups this year, but this is a breakout spot with Lattimore out. I love the Goff to Watkins connection in tournaments this week.
Which useful trend or statistic stuck out most during your research?
Stevietpfl: Ingram has at least 75 rushing yards in six straight games, and he’s fourth in rushing yards this season. Over the last six games, he’s been a top ten fantasy running back five times.