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DraftKings Showdown Analysis: Week 9 MNF (Cowboys/Titans)

TEN @ DAL

Before you dig into this writeup specifically geared towards this week’s Monday Night Football matchup between the Cowboys and Titans, you may want to take a look at a few articles that serve as primers for Showdown strategy:

1) A synopsis of the Showdown format and early season results

2) Optimal total roster construction based on historical matchups in different game scripts

3) Optimal Captain (CPT) selections based on historical matchups in different game scripts

Methodology

To analyze this specific Showdown slate, I looked through thousands of NFL matchups from 2008-2017 and found the closest analogies to the NE-GB matchup according to the following parameters: Betting spread, over/under, average fantasy points scoring for the top-ranked positional players of both rosters (QB1, RB1, WR1, TE1).

I won’t detail every matchup that falls into the top-100, but for illustration let’s look at the most similar matchup: 2011 Week 1, Broncos-Raiders.

The spread and over/under are exactly the same as this matchup (Broncos -3, 40 O/U versus Cowboys -4.5, 40 O/U).

All the players aren’t perfect matches, but that’s why we use 100 similar matchups and not just the single most similar.

For this game and 99 other similar matchups, I calculated every possible combination that fits with Showdown rules (one CPT, at least one offensive player from each team) and would fall under the $50K salary threshold assuming the salaries for the historical similar matchups are the same as those for this contest.

Choosing the right captain

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Comments

  • Volkster6

    Kevin I’ve been wondering this all year – great articles by the way I can’t wait to read them – when you choose a game to base your research off, are you simply using the total and line or do you look at the games stats as well to make your data?

    In addition, I believe you mentioned at the start of the season you would use historical match ups until you had enough data on Showdown trends. Is it possible to look at who the top 10 (including ties of course) of cashing rosters to pool together data similar to what you do in the match up matrix for the main slate? Or do you need much more data???

    Again great article! Good luck

  • Maddad2020

    Paralysis through analysis. Too easy to lose sight of critical information when its buried in a sea of noise.

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