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DraftKings Showdown Analysis: Week 9 SNF (Patriots/Packers)

GBP @ NEP

Before you dig into this writeup specifically geared towards this week’s Sunday Night Football matchup between the Patriots and Packers, you may want to take a look at a few articles that serve as primers for Showdown strategy:

1) A synopsis of the Showdown format and early season results

2) Optimal total roster construction based on historical matchups in different game scripts

3) Optimal Captain (CPT) selections based on historical matchups in different game scripts

Methodology

To analyze this specific Showdown slate, I looked through thousands of NFL matchups from 2008-2017 and found the closest analogies to the SFO-OAK matchup according to the following parameters: Betting spread, over/under, average fantasy points scoring for the top-ranked positional players of both rosters (QB1, RB1, WR1, TE1).

I won’t detail every matchup that falls into the top-100, but for illustration let’s look at the most similar matchup: 2012 Week 8, Broncos-Saints.

The spread and over/under are exactly the same as this matchup (Broncos -6, 54.5 O/U versus Patriots -5.5, 56.5 O/U).

All the players aren’t perfect matches, but that’s why we use 100 similar matchups and not just the single most similar.

For this game and 99 other similar matchups, I calculated every possible combination that fits with Showdown rules (one CPT, at least one offensive player from each team) and would fall under the $50K salary threshold assuming the salaries for the historical similar matchups are the same as those for this contest.

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