DraftKings SlateIQ Showdown: Week 13 SNF (Steelers/Chargers)
LAC @ PIT
There are three main components to each Showdown slate analysis that you’ll find below:
- Optimal lineup allocations (CPT and total roster) for both team based on the results of similar historical matchups.
- Comparison of player ownership projections for FLEX and CPT produced by a model trained on 2018 Showdown contest results to optimal allocations.
- Year-to-date Showdown contest positional allocations for winning (top 0.1%) entries and the field.
Before you dig into this writeup specifically geared towards this week’s Sunday Night Football matchup between the Steelers and Chargers, you may want to take a look at a few articles that serve as primers for Showdown strategy:
1) Walking through a Showdown slate that gives a specific plan for comparing optimal allocation and ownership projections to find high leverage plays
2) A synopsis of the Showdown format and early season results
3) Optimal total roster construction based on historical matchups in different game scripts
4) Optimal Captain (CPT) selections based on historical matchups in different game scripts
To analyze this specific Showdown slate, I looked through thousands of NFL matchups from 2008-2017 and found the closest analogies to the PIT-LAC matchup according to the following parameters: Betting spread, over/under, average fantasy points scoring for the top-ranked positional players of both rosters (QB1, RB1, WR1, TE1).
I won’t detail every matchup that falls into the top-100, but for illustration let’s look at the most similar matchup: 2009 Week 13, Vikings-Cardinals.
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