DraftKings SlateIQ Showdown: Week 13 TNF (Saints/Cowboys)
Before you dig into this writeup specifically geared towards this week’s Thursday Night Football matchup between the Saints and Cowboys, you may want to take a look at a few articles that serve as primers for Showdown strategy:
1) A synopsis of the Showdown format and early season results
2) Optimal total roster construction based on historical matchups in different game scripts
3) Optimal Captain (CPT) selections based on historical matchups in different game scripts
To analyze this specific Showdown slate, I looked through thousands of NFL matchups from 2008-2017 and found the closest analogies to the NOS-DAL matchup according to the following parameters: Betting spread, over/under, average fantasy points scoring for the top-ranked positional players of both rosters (QB1, RB1, WR1, TE1).
I won’t detail every matchup that falls into the top-100, but for illustration let’s look at the most similar matchup: 2014 Week 13, Saints-Steelers.
The spread and over/under are exactly the same as this matchup (Saints -4.5, 54 O/U versus Saints -7, 53 O/U).
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