2/1/19 Sports Betting Matchup Breakdown: Oklahoma City Thunder at Miami Heat

Hey everybody, welcome to the daily sports betting breakdown here on RotoGrinders where we are giving you everything you need to not only make some money, but advance your sports betting knowledge. While most places just simply give you which picks they prefer in the games, we breakdown everything from A-Z for both the total and spread, and let you know what bets we like and dislike.

Now, let’s get down to the breakdown for February 1st, 2019: Oklahoma City Thunder at Miami Heat.

Historical Numbers Against the Spread

Tonight’s matchup features two team who are right in the thick of the playoff hunt this season. The Heat currently sit at 7th in the Eastern conference right now with a record of 24-25 and are 5-5 in their last 10, while the Thunder are in 3rd place in the Western Conference with a record of 32-18 and are 7-3 in their last 10.

Thunder Historical Numbers Against the Spread

The Thunder have been one of the best teams in the league to bet on this year as they have gone 28-22 ATS which is the fifth best rate in the NBA, and looking at the situational variables for this game it looks like an adventurous spot for them to cover. On the year, the Thunder own a record of 15-11 ATS on the road which ranks third in the league. Additionally, the Thunder come into this matchup with mutiple days for rest which they have covered at a 66% rate this season, going 8-4 ATS. Overall, this is a very good spot for the Thunder to Cover.

Heat Historical Numbers Against the Spread

The Heat have been a fairly up and down team this year with a significant amount of injuries, but even with all their problems, they have been an above average team to bet on this year going 26-23 ATS. Looking at this spot from a macro level, it would appear as a good spot for a normal team as they are playing at home and on a full days rest, but the Heat are a very different team. While they have been the best team to bet on on the road this year going 15-9 ATS, they have been a completely different team at home. The Heat are the only team in the league with a winning record on the road and a losing record at home. Currently they are 11-14 straight up and ATS at home this season. Additionally, they are 14-16 ATS on a full days rest which is a significantly lower rate than their overall cover rate. This is a very bad spot for the Heat to cover.

Historical Numbers on the Total

The Thunder have been one of the fastest paced teams in the league ranking 3rd in pace and have been stout on both sides of the floor ranking 2nd in defensive efficiency and 15th in offensive efficiency. The Heat on the other hand have been one of the slower paced teams in the league ranking 25th, while ranking 6th in defensive efficiency and 22nd in offensive efficiency.

Thunder Historical Numbers on the Total

Even though the Thunder have been one of the fastest paced teams in the league, they have been much better on defense and have only covered on the over at a 50% rate this year going 24-24-2. While the Thunder have hit the over at the second highest rates in the league at home (15-8-1) they have been the second worst team at covering the over on the road (9-16-1). Additionally, the Thunder have been a horrible team at covering the over on multiple days rest going 4-8 this season. Overall, this is a very bad spot for the Thunder to cover on the over.

Heat Historical Numbers on the Total

Much like the Thunder, the Heat have been a mediocre team at covering the over this year going 24-25. The Heat have not excelled in a specific area at covering the over as they are 13-12 at home and 14-16 on a full days rest. Overall, this is a mediocre spot for the Heat to cover the over.

My Picks


About the Author

  • Grant Neiffer (gneiffer07)

  • One of the most vibrant and interesting personalities in all of DFS, Grant Neiffer, aka gneiffer07 has economics and accounting degrees from Azusa Pacific University. He’s been playing DFS since 2013 and fantasy sports from the ripe old age of 10. He has qualified for countless live finals and is routinely at the top of the RotoGrinders rankings in all the major sports. He can frequently be found on GrindersLive shows and podcasts and producing written expert analysis for RotoGrinders users.