Hey everyone, welcome to the daily sports betting breakdown here on RotoGrinders, where we not only give you our favorite bets from one of the more interesting games of the night, but also historical numbers to help you improve your sports betting knowledge. We ended the week with a loss, but we’re still at 12-3-1 in the last two weeks, and up over 7 units. Let’s keep things going with the breakdown for March 11th, 2019: the Sacramento Kings at Washington Wizards game.
Historical Numbers Against the Spread
Tonight’s match up features two teams trying to make it into playoffs as the 8th seed in their respective conferences. The Wizards currently sit at 11th in the Eastern Conference with a record of 27-39 (3-7 in their last 10), while the Kings sit at 9th in the Western Conference with a record of 33-32 (4-6 in their last 10).
Kings Historical Numbers Against the Spread
The Kings have drastically outperformed real-world expectations this year and have thus drastically outperformed expectations for gamblers too, going 38-25-2 ATS (second in the league). Surprisingly enough, they have been the best team to bet on at home this year, but have only been average on the road going, 16-15 ATS. They come into this game with a full day’s rest where they have gone 25-10-1 ATS, which ranks first in the league. Overall, this is an average spot for the Kings to cover.
Wizards Historical Numbers Against the Spread
People had some high expectations for the Wizards this year, but they have not fully panned out. The Wizards have been a below average team to bet on this season, going 31-35 ATS, which ranks 10th worst in the league. Even though the Wizards haven’t been a good team to bet on overall, they have been one of the best teams to bet on at home, going 19-11 ATS (fifth in the league). Additionally, they come into this match up on a full day’s rest, a situation in which they’ve only been slightly below average this year, going 17-22 ATS. Overall, this is an above average spot for the Wizards to cover.
Historical Numbers on the Total
The reason I picked this game is because it should be an incredibly high scoring one. Currently, the Wizards rank 8th in pace, 27th in defensive efficiency and 14th in offensive efficiency. Meanwhile, the Kings rank 2nd in pace, 17th in defensive efficiency and 19th in offensive efficiency.
Kings Historical Numbers on the Total
The Kings have been one of the higher scoring teams in the league, but they have covered the over at a mediocre rate this season, going 32-33. Overall, this may not set up as a good spot for the Kings to cover the spread, but it is a good spot for them to cover the over. The Kings have covered the over at a much lower rate on the road (14-20) than they have at home (18-13) and have been one of the worst teams in the league at covering the over on a full day’s rest going 15-21. Overall, this is a below average spot for the Kings to cover the over.
Wizards Historical Numbers on the Total
On the season, no team has been better to bet the over on than the Wizards, who have gone 41-24-1 this season. While they have covered the over at a slightly above average rate on the road, they have been incredible at home going 21-9. Additionally, they have been an above average team on a full day’s rest going 23-16, which ranks 4th in the league. Overall, this is an above average spot for the Wizards to cover the over.
My Pick
(Top photo: Jesse Johnson/USA TODAY Sports)