Hey everyone, welcome to the sports betting matchup breakdown here on RotoGrinders. In this daily article, we not only give you our favorite bets from one of the more interesting games of the night, but also historical numbers to help you improve your sports betting knowledge.
Regression has finally hit. After going a crazy 13-3-1 over a two week period, we have lost 4 straight. This happens sometimes, but we are still up since we started doing bets for this article, and just because we’ve lost a few in a row, doesn’t mean it will continue. We will still continue to break things down and in the long run, we should be profitable.
So, let’s end this losing streak with the matchup breakdown for March 14th, 2019: the Dallas Mavericks at Denver Nuggets game.
Historical Numbers Against the Spread
Tonight’s matchup features one of the best teams in the West going up against one of the worst. The Nuggets currently rank 2nd in the West with a record of 44-22 (6-4 in their last 10), while the Mavericks are currently ranked 14th with a record of 27-40 (1-9 in their last 10).
Mavericks Historical Numbers Against the Spread
While Dallas has pretty much given up on this season and owns one of the worst records in the NBA, they have been one of the best teams in the league to bet on this season, going 38-29 ATS (5th in the league). Dallas is generally one of my favorite teams to see on the board because they have some of the widest home/road splits in the entire league. This year at home, they are 22-12 ATS and 21-13 straight up, while they are 16-17 ATS and 6-27 straight up on the road. Dallas has also been a pretty good team to bet on on a full day’s rest, going 22-16 ATS. But despite all that, Luka doesn’t look right right now. Overall, this is a bad spot for the Mavericks to cover.
Nuggets Historical Numbers Agains the Spread
The Nuggets have been a fantastic team overall and to bet on this season, ranking near the top of the league in the standings, and owning a 36-30 ATS record. Much like the Mavericks, the Nuggets have had some pretty drastic home/road splits this season, going 23-11 ATS at home and 13-19 ATS on the road. One spot where the Nuggets haven’t played well has been on a full day’s rest, going 21-22 ATS. Overall, I would still say that this is an above average spot for the Nuggets to cover the spread.
Historical Numbers on the Total
Mavericks Historical Numbers on the Total
While the Mavericks have been a fantastic team to bet against the spread, they have been a horrible team to bet the over on, going 27-36-4 (4th worst in the NBA). Much like with the spread, the Mavericks have some pretty drastic home/road splits on the over; the Mavs are the worst team to bet at home, but a mediocre team to bet on the road going 15-16-2. Overall, this is an above average spot for the Mavericks to cover the over.
Nuggets Historical Numbers on the Total
Like the Mavericks, the Nuggets have been one of the worst teams to bet the over on this season going 29-36-1 (7th worst in the NBA). While the Nuggets have been a horrible team to bet the over on on the road, they have been an above average team to bet the over on at home going 18-16 and 17-14 as a home favorite. Additionally, the Nuggets have been a .500 team covering the over on a full day of rest, going 21-21-1. Overall, this is an above average spot for the Nuggets to cover the over.
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NBA Bets for Tonight – March 14, 2019
(Top photo: Gary A. Vasquez/USA TODAY Sports)