Hey everyone, welcome to the daily sports betting breakdown here on RotoGrinders, where we not only give you our favorite bets from one of the most interesting games of the night, but also historical numbers to help you improve your sports betting knowledge.
I’m not sure if I can entirely put into words what happened in last night’s Brooklyn/Sacramento game. Not only did I lose lose both the moneyline bet and the spread in a game where the Kings were up 25 at the beginning of the 4th quarter, but Russell made me lose everything in DFS. I don’t normally complain that much about bad beats, but the Kings had a 99% chance of covering at the beginning of the first quarter and Russell just looked like he’d have a decent night – then everything went terribly wrong. But now that my anger over the situation has been vented, we move on to the breakdown for March 20th, 2019: the Miami Heat at San Antonio Spurs game.
Historical Numbers Against the Spread
Tonight’s match up features the Heat who are currently sitting at 8th in the Eastern Conference with a record of (7-3 in their last 10), while the Spurs currently sit at 5th in the Western conference with a record of 42-29 (9-1 in their last 10). The Spurs are currently battling for home court advantage in the first round, so this game actually has significance for the Spurs here.
Heat Historical Numbers Against the Spread
The Heat are still holding on to the seed in the Eastern Conference and have actually been one of the better teams to bet on this season going 38-32 ATS (8th best in the NBA). Strangely enough, the Heat have been one of the few that have performed better on the road this season than at home going 22-11 ATS (1st in the league) and 17-16 straight up. Additionally, the Heat have been slightly below average on a full days rest going 22-22 ATS this season. Overall, this is a slightly above average spot for the Heat to cover.
Spurs Historical Numbers Against the Spread
With the massive tear the Spurs have been on lately, they are now the 4th best team to bet on this season going, 40-31 ATS. The Spurs have been fantastic this year at home compared to how they have played on the road, and have gone 24-12 ATS at home (2nd best in the NBA). It should be noted that they have been only average on a full day’s rest this yea,r going 20-22 ATS, but most of those losses have been on the road. Overall, this is an above average spot for the Spurs to cover.
Historical Numbers on the Total
Heat Historical Numbers on the Total
The have played at a slow pace this season and have played well on the defensive end of the floor, however they have covered the over at a slightly above average rate going 36-34. Looking at their home/road splits, the Heat have covered the over at a slightly lower rate on the road than at home going 16-17 at home this season. Additionally, the Heat have covered the over at a slightly above average rate on a full days rest going 23-21 on the over. Overall, this is an average spot for the Heat to cover the over.
Spurs Historical Numbers on the Total
With the Spurs playing much better on offense than in the past and much worse on defense, they have covered the over at the 3rd highest pace this year going, 39-31-1. The Spurs have covered the over at the highest pace on the road this season, but have been one of the worst teams at covering it at home, going 16-20. Additionally, they have gone 22-19-1 on a full day’s rest, which is below their pace so far this year. Overall, this is a below average spot for them to cover the over.
My NBA Pick for March 20, 2019 – Miami Heat at San Antonio Spurs
(Top photo: Soobum Im/USA TODAY Sports)