Hey everyone, welcome to the daily sports betting breakdown here on RotoGrinders, where we not only give you our favorite bets from one of the more interesting games of the night, but also historical numbers to help you improve your sports betting knowledge.
I’m going to be honest, this will not continue. Since the beginning of last week, we have gone 12-2-1 and one of those losSes was a last second loss on a moneyline bet. The streak we’re on for this article is unsustainable, and will not continue, but even with a massive losing streak at one point since we started giving bets, we still have a 60% winning percentage which hopefully means that these bets are at least going to bet profitable in the long run.
In any case, to quote one of the best Vegas movies of all time, “You never walk away from the table when you’re on a heater.” So, let’s get to the breakdown for March 8th, 2019: the Cleveland Cavaliers at Miami Heat game.
Historical Numbers Against the Spread
Not going to lie, this is a trash matchup, but I think there is a decent bet in here, so I’m going to break it down anyways. Tonight’s matchup features the Miami Heat who are currently ranked 8th in the Eastern Conference with a record of 30-34 (5-5 in their last 10), while the Cavaliers currently sit at 14th in the Eastern Conference with a record of 16-49 (5-5 in their last 10).
Heat Historical Numbers Against the Spread
The Heat have been a interesting team this season, with a rotation that no one can entirely figure out, but they have been a good team to bet on going 34-30 ATS, which 10th in the NBA. While no team has performed as well for bettors on the road this season, the Heat have been a dumpster fire at home, going 13-19 ATS and 6-16 ATS as a home favorite. Additionally, the Heat have been a below average team at covering on a full day’s rest, going 19-20 ATS. Overall, this is a below average spot for the Heat to cover.
Cavaliers Historical Numbers Against the Spread
The Cavaliers have been an absolutely horrible team this season, but they have only been slightly below average to bet on going 30-34-1 ATS, which ranks 11th worst in the NBA. The Cavs have been a horrible team to bet on at home, but have been one of the better teams to bet on the road going 15-15-1 ATS, which ranks 11th in the NBA. It should be noted, however, that the Cavs have been the 2nd worst team to bet on on a full day’s rest with a record of 13-23-1 ATS. Overall, this is an above average spot for the Cavs to cover.
Historical Numbers on the Total
The Heat currently rank 24th in pace this season, 7th in defensive efficiency and 23rd in offensive efficiency. Meanwhile, the Cavs rank 29th in pace, 30th in defensive efficiency and 26th in offensive efficiency.
Heat Historical Numbers on the Total
Even though the Heat have played at one of the slower paces in the league and have had one of the better defenses, they have been an above average team to bet the over on, going 33-31 this season ( 13th in the NBA). The Heat have been a below average team to bet the over on the road, but have been one of the better teams at home going 18-14 (7th in the NBA). Additionally, the Heat have been above average on a full day’s rest, going 21-18. Overall, this is an above average spot for the Heat to cover.
Cavaliers Historical Numbers on the Total
Even though the Cavs have been one slowest and worst offensive teams in the NBA, they have been so bad on defense that they have covered the over at an above average rate (32-31-2 this season). While they have been one of the better teams at covering the over at home this season, they have been below average on the road, going 14-17. It should be noted that the Cavs have been an above average team at covering the over on a full day’s rest going 20-16-1, which ranks 6th in the NBA. Overall, this is an average spot for the Cavs to cover the over.
My Picks
(Top photo: Jeremy Brevard/USA TODAY Sports)