4/16/19 Sports Betting Matchup Breakdown: San Antonio Spurs at Denver Nuggets

Hey everyone, welcome to the daily sports betting breakdown here on RotoGrinders, where we not only give you our favorite bets from one of the most interesting games of the night, but also historical numbers to help you improve your sports betting knowledge. For the rest of the playoffs, we’re also going to give you a Monkey Knife Fight prop bet pick.

Well, we started off the first article of the playoffs pretty well with the 76ers absolutely blowing out the Nets and covering by a full 15 points. We’ve been on a little bit of a heater since we started the article back up going 5-1 in the past week, so let’s keep things going with the breakdown for April 16th, 2019: the San Antonio Spurs at Denver Nuggets game.

Monkey Knife Fight Prop Bet

While this wouldn’t have hit in game one, I don’t expect a repeat here. With Jokic, Millsap and LMA all playing a full compliment of minutes, they should be crashing the boards this game (and DeRozen will likely not end up with 12 boards). Joker averages over 12 boards per 36 for the season and Millsap is close to 10. With both these guys and LMA fully rested, they should be crashing the boards here. I’m not expecting a whole lot of play out of Plumlee in this matchup, so I expect Joker to end up with 14-15 boards, LMA with 10-12, and Millsap around 10, which would hit this prop pretty easily.

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Historical Numbers Against the Spread

San Antonio Historical Numbers Against the Spread

After San Antonio’s season last year, people weren’t entirely sure if they’d be in the in the playoff race. But they made it in with the 7th seed and pulled down game 1 over in Denver and have performed well for bettors, going 44-38 ATS (9th in the league). Even though they were able to take one down in Denver, they have been a drastically different team on the road compared to at home, going 24-17 ATS (6th best at home) compared to 20-21-1 ATS on the road, however they have been a fantastic team on multiple days rest this season going 12-5 ATS (2nd in the league). Overall this is a good spot for the Spurs to cover.

Denver Historical Numbers Against the Spread

While the Nuggets greatly exceeded expectations taking down the number 2 seed in the West, they have only been an average team to bet on this season, going 42-41 ATS. Even though they took the loss as the favorite in game one, the Nuggets have been a fantastic team to bet on at home this season, going 25-17 ATS (5th best in the league) and 23-16 ATS as a home favorite. While they have done well at home, they have only been an average team on multiple days rest, going 7-7 ATS. Overall, this is an above average spot for the Nuggets to cover.

Action and Line Movement on the Spread

The line for this game started at Den -5.5 and with 56% of the overall bets coming in on the Nuggets, the line has moved to -7.

Historical Numbers on the Total

San Antonio Historical Numbers on the Total

San Antonio has unexpectedly been one of the better offensive teams this year, which combined with their below average defense has caused them to be one of the better teams at covering the over, going 43-39-1. Looking at their home/road splits they have had a drastic difference going 25-16-1 on the road (best in the league) compared to 18-23 on the road (7th worst in the league). It should be noted that on a full day’s rest they have covered the over at one of the lowest rates in the league going 6-11 (2nd worst in the league). Overall, this is a below average spot for the Spurs to cover the over.

Denver Historical Numbers on the Total

Denver has been both an above average defensive and offensive team this season, but have covered the over at one of the lowest rates in the league, going 34-48-1 (2nd lowest in the league). Looking at their home numbers, while they are still below average, they have covered the over at a much better rate going 19-23 compared to 15-25-1 on the road (lowest in the league). Looking at their numbers on multiple days rest we see the same as they have gone 5-9 this season (3rd lowest in the league). Overall, this is a average spot for the Nuggets to cover.

Action and Line Movement on the Spread

The total for this game opened at 208.5 and with 75% of the bets coming in on the over, the line has dropped a half point to 208, showing some reverse line movement.