Hey everyone, welcome to the daily sports betting breakdown here on RotoGrinders, where we not only give you our favorite bets from one of the most interesting games of the night, but also historical numbers to help you improve your sports betting knowledge. For the rest of the playoffs, we’re also going to give you a Monkey Knife Fight prop bet pick.
Last night was looking pretty good at the end of the 3rd quarter. The Spurs were up 7 as a 7 point dog and the under was on track to hit, then Jamal Murry happened and the Nuggets covered by 2. This happens, and we move on to the next day.
So here we go: the breakdown for April 17, 2019: the Utah Jazz at Houston Rockets game.
Monkey Knife Fight Prop Bet
Let’s start things off with Gobert. He’s better, last game was a blowout, and he’s going to be crushing the boards here. The line in close, but I think the line should be +3 for Capela here so I’m rolling with Gobert. Next we have Harden vs Paul for Blk/Stl. This one is obvious to me. I’d take Paul straight up here and he gets the tiebreaker. In game one, Paul had two to Hardens one, and while realistically this is close to a 50/50 spot with a slight edge to Paul without the tiebreaker, with the tiebreaker it’s clearly Paul. Lastly, we have Mitchell vs Gordon and while they both ended with 3 in the last game, Mitchell had 2 more attempts and owns the tiebreaker on this prop. Take Mitchell and just count your money.
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Historical Numbers Against the Spread
Rockets Historical Numbers Against the Spread
Houston has been one of the best teams in the league this season, but has only been a slightly above average team to bet on, going 41-39-3 ATS. Looking at their splits, they have been a completely different team at home this season, going 24-16-2 ATS (4th best in the NBA) and 21-15-2 ATS as a home favorite. Additionally, Houston has been an average team to bet on on multiple days rest, going 8-8 ATS. Overall, this is an above average spot for the Rockets to cover.
Jazz Historical Numbers Against the Spread
The Jazz have been one of the better teams in the league this season and have been an above average team to bet on, going 44-37-2 ATS (8th best in the NBA). Surprisingly, even though the Jazz play at high elevation at home, they have been an above average team on the road this season going 23-18-1 ATS (6th best in the NBA). However, the Jazz have been a well below average team on multiple days rest, going 7-10 ATS. Overall, this is a slightly above average spot for the Jazz to cover.
Action and Line Movement on the Spread
The line for this game opened at -6.5 and with 72% of the bets coming in on the Rockets, the line has not moved.
Historical Numbers on the Total
Rockets Historical Numbers on the Total
Houston has been one of the best offensive teams in the NBA this season, but they have played at such a slow pace that they have covered the over at one of the lowest rates in the league, going 36-42-5 on the over (9th worst in the NBA). Looking at their home/road splits, we see that they are much better at home going 20-19-3 on the over, compared to 16-23-2 on the road. Additionally, the Rockets have been fairly average on multiple days rest, going 7-8-1. Overall, this is an above average spot for the Rockets to cover the over.
Jazz Historical Numbers on the Total
The Jazz have been one of the best defensive teams in the league this year, which has led them to cover the over at a below average rate going 39-43-1 on the over. Looking at the Jazz home/road splits there isn’t a drastic difference in cover rate, however the Jazz have been the worst team in the league at covering the over on multiple days rest, going 5-11-1. Overall, this is a below average spot for the Jazz to cover the over.
Action and Line Movement on the Spread
The total for this game opened at 212.5 and with 57% of the bets coming in on the over, the line has not moved.
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My NBA Pick for April 17, 2019 – Utah Jazz at Houston Rockets
(Top Photo: Troy Taormina/USA TODAY Sports)