Hey everyone, welcome to the daily sports betting breakdown here on RotoGrinders, where we not only give you our favorite bets from one of the most interesting games of the night, but also historical numbers to help you improve your sports betting knowledge. For the rest of the playoffs, we’re also going to give you a Monkey Knife Fight prop bet pick.
Last week was a little bit up and down, but as the first round comes to a close, these games get more interesting. While I thought that the Jazz would put up a bit of a fight, they have failed to keep pace with the Rockets and are on the verge of getting swept.
Let’s jump right into the breakdown for April 22, 2019: the Houston Rockets at Utah Jazz game.
Monkey Knife Fight Prop Bet
First, we’ll get Harden out of the way. He’s going to get 60 points here and that is not in doubt. While he may not get 6 steals again this game, there’s no way he’s going to shoot as bad as he did in the last game, and with this game the potential clinch spot, he’s going to be chucking. Next we have Paul, and while he hasn’t been great in this series, he should play a full allotment of minutes here and is safe for 35 to 40 points. Lastly, this leaves us with Mitchell who has 27 and 19 shot attempts in the last two games. With this being a win or go home, you can expect something similar to last game and I’m projecting Mitchell for 40+. With this, the over should easily hit on this prop.
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Historical Numbers Against the Spread
Rockets Historical Numbers Against the Spread
Houston has been one of the best teams in the league this season, but has only been a slightly above average team to bet on, going 42-39-3 ATS. The Rockets have been an absolutely fantastic team to bet on at home going 25-16-2 ATS this season (4th best in the league), but have been a much different team on the road going 18-23-1 ATS (6th worst in the league) including 10-16-1 ATS as a road favorite. It should be noted that the Rockets have been an above average team on a full day of rest going 26-23-3 ATS. Overall, this is a below average spot for the Rockets to cover.
Jazz Historical Numbers Against the Spread
Prior to the playoffs, the Jazz were one of the best teams in the league to bet on, but after failing to cover this series, they now sit at 44-38-2 ATS which is slightly above league average. With the high elevation in SLC, one would think that it’s a good home court advantage, but they have been significantly worse to bet on at home this year, going 21-20-1 ATS. The one situation where the Jazz have been great to bet on this season has been on a full day of rest, where they have gone 29-19-2 ATS (3rd best in the league). Overall, this is an above average spot for the Jazz to cover
Action and Line Movement on the Spread
The line for this game opened at Houston +2 and with 89% of the bets coming in on the Rockets, the line has moved to Houston -2.5.
Historical Numbers on the Total
Rockets Historical Numbers on the Total
The Rockets have been a great offensive team this season, but have failed to cover the over in a large portion of their games going 36-43-5 on the over (7th worst in the NBA). Looking at the home/road splits of the Rockets, they have been a much worse team at covering on the road, going 16-24-2 (2nd worst in the league). The Rockets have also been the second worst team in the league at covering the over on a full day of rest, going 19-29-4. Overall, this is a below average spot for the Rockets to cover the over.
Jazz Historical Numbers on the Total
The Jazz have been one of the top teams on the defensive side of the ball this season and have been one of the worse teams in the league at covering the over, going 39-44-2. Looking at the Jazz home/road splits, we see that they have had similar cover rates both at home and on the road. Additionally, the Jazz have a similar cover rate on a full day of rest, going 23-27 on the over this season. Overall, this is an average spot for the Jazz to cover the over.
Action and Line Movement on the Spread
The total for this game opened at 212.5 and with 67% of the bets coming in on the over, the line has moved to 214.
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(Top Photo: Russ Isabella/USA TODAY Sports)