4/26/19 Sports Betting Matchup Breakdown: Golden State Warriors at Los Angeles Clippers

Howdy NBA fans and welcome to the daily sports betting breakdown here on RotoGrinders, where we not only give you our favorite bets from one of the most interesting games of the night, but also historical numbers to help you improve your sports betting knowledge. For the rest of the playoffs, we’re also going to give you a Monkey Knife Fight prop bet pick.

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For today, April 26, 2019, we’ll look at game 6 when the Golden State Warriors visit the Los Angeles Clippers.

Monkey Knife Fight Prop Bet

This game sees the Warriors with a chance to end this series, while the Clippers can force one of the most improbable game sevens we’ve seen in a while. With this much on the line, you know the main guys in this game are going to be coming out firing. Looking at the previous games in this series, this prop would have only hit about 50% of the time, but this game is different. You can all but guarantee that Lou, Durant, and Curry are all putting up 25 points here and one will likely end with close to 40. I chose the 1.5x, but I also put money on the 2x and 3x. I think all 3 hit, but the 1.5x is a guarantee.

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Historical Numbers Against the Spread

Warriors Historical Numbers Against the Spread

While the Warriors have been the best team in basketball this year, they have been one of the worst teams to bet on going 37-49-1 ATS (2nd worst in the league). Looking at their home/road splits, they have been significantly worse at home (17-26-1 ATS) than on the road (20-23 ATS). Additionally, the Warriors have only been moderately below average on a full day of rest, going 22-27 ATS (10th worst in the league). Overall, this is a slightly above average spot for the Warriors to cover.

Clippers Historical Numbers Against the Spread

The Clippers have blown everyone’s expectations out of the water this season and have been one of the best teams in the league to bet on going 48-38-1 ATS (5th best in the league). Looking at the Clippers splits, they have been slightly worse at home going 23-20 ATS, but have been horrible as a home dog going 4-9 ATS. It should be noted, the Clippers have performed really well on a full day of rest, going 29-19-1 ATS (4th best in the league). Overall, this is an average spot for the Clippers to cover the spread.

Action and Line Movement on the Spread

The line for this game opened at the Warriors -9, and with 72% of the bets coming in on the Warriors, has moved to -10.

Historical Numbers on the Total

Warriors Historical Numbers on the Total

Even with the Warriors being the best offensive team in the league, they have not fared well for betters who have taken the over as they have gone 41-46 this year. Much like with their numbers against the spread, the Warriors have been much better at hitting the over on the road this season, going 23-20. Additionally, The Warriors have been one of the worst teams at covering the over on a full day of rest, going 20-29 (4th worst in the league). Overall, this is an below average spot for the Warriors to cover the over.

Clippers Historical Numbers on the Total

Much like the Clippers numbers against the spread, they have been one of the best teams in the league at covering the over, going 47-39-1 (7th best in the league). Looking at the home/road splits, the Clippers have been a below average team at covering the over on the road, but have been the best team in the league at covering at home going 28-15. Additionally, the Clippers have been an above average team at covering the over on a full day of rest going, 27-22. Overall, this is an above average spot for the Clippers to cover the over.

Action and Line Movement on the Spread

The total for this game opened at 235.5, and with 68% of the total bets coming in on the over, the line has dropped to 232.5 showing some reverse line movement.

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My NBA Pick for April 26, 2019 – Golden State Warriors at Los Angeles Clippers

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(Top Photo: Kelley L Cox/USA TODAY Sports)