Howdy NBA fans and welcome to the daily sports betting breakdown here on RotoGrinders, where we not only give you our favorite bets from one of the most interesting games of the night, but also historical numbers to help you improve your sports betting knowledge. For the rest of the playoffs, we’re also going to give you a Monkey Knife Fight prop bet pick.
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Today’s breakdown features the game 2 matchup between the four seeded Boston Celtics at the one seeded Milwaukee Bucks.
Monkey Knife Fight Prop Bet
Game one went pretty poorly for Giannis, but I don’t really expect that to happen again. Giannis should get at least 50 in this game and there’s a decent shot that he ends up with 70 after the performance he put up in game one. Next we have Irving who has 40 in every game but one in the playoffs, and now he gets a better matchup going against the Bucks instead of the Pacers. We saw him put up 47 in the last game and I think that’s his floor here and he has a real shot at 60. Lastly, we have Horford who had close to 50 in the last game, and while I don’t expect that again, I think that 40 is pretty much a lock. Overall, this prop should hit easily.
Historical Numbers Against the Spread
Bucks Historical Numbers Against the Spread
No team has exceeded expectations this year as much as the Bucks, and as such they own the top record against the spread this season at 51-32-4. The Bucks have been dominate in every single situation this year for gambling and today is no different. The Bucks are 25-17-2 ATS at home and are 13-6-3 ATS on multiple days rest (slightly above their cover rate overall). It should be noted that the Bucks are 18-4 ATS after a loss. Overall, this sets up as a above average spot for the Bucks to cover.
Celtics Historical Numbers Against the Spread
The Celtics had some high hopes for the regular season, but failed to lock up a top seed. However, they have still been a slightly above average team to bet on this season, going 43-42-2. Looking at the Celtics home/road splits, the Celtics have been an average team both at home and on the road, but have been well above average as a road dog, going 11-6 ATS (4th best in the league). It should be noted that the Celtics are a slightly below average team on multiple days rest, going 7-9 ATS. Overall, this is an average spot for the Celtics to cover.
Action and Line Movement on the Spread
The spread for this game opened at -7.5, and with 65% of the bets coming in on the Celtics, the line has not moved.
Historical Numbers on the Total
Bucks Historical Numbers on the Total
Milwaukee has been involved in so many blowouts this season that they have only covered the over at a slightly below average rate, going 44-42-1. Milwaukee has the same cover rate both on the road and at home, but they have had an above average cover rate on the over on multiple days rest, going 12-8-1 this season. Overall, this is a slightly above average spot for the Bucks to cover the over.
Celtics Historical Numbers on the Total
The Celtics have been one of the best defensive teams in the league this year, but they have also covered the over at a well above average rate, going 48-39 (3rd highest rate in the league). Looking at the Celtics home/road splits, we see that they are slightly worse at covering the over on the road going 23-21. Additionally, the Celtics have been an average team at covering the over on multiple days rest, going 8-8. Overall, this is an average spot for the Celtics to cover the over.
Action and Line Movement on the Spread
The total for this game opened at 220.5, and with 76% of the bets coming in on the under, the line has dropped to 220.
My NBA Pick for April 30, 2019 – Boston Celtics at Milwaukee Bucks
(Top Photo: Jeff Hanisch/USA TODAY Sports)