Howdy NBA fans and sports bettors, and welcome to the daily sports betting breakdown here on RotoGrinders. In this article, we give you our favorite bets from one of the most intriguing games of the night,and some historical numbers to help you improve your sports betting knowledge. For the rest of the playoffs, we’re also going to give you a Monkey Knife Fight prop bet pick.
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Back to today’s breakdown for May 6, 2019, which features the game 4 matchup between the one seeded Milwaukee Bucks at the four seeded Boston Celtics.
Monkey Knife Fight Prop Bet
This may be the same prop that we had last Friday, but it hit before the end of the 3rd quarter last week, and I’m guessing something similar will happen today. After a slow start to this series, Giannis finally put of a Giannis type game putting down 70 points. While I don’t know if he’ll hit that again, he should be around 60+ in this game with Middleton putting up is normal 40 point game (any increase to Middleton will likely decrease Giannis and vica versa, but the points should be there regardless). If we get 100 from Giannis and Middleton combine that leaves us only 38 needed from Kyrie, who I’m expecting more in the 50 point range. While I picked the 1.5x multiplier, I think that the 2x is also a good prop.
Historical Numbers Against the Spread
Bucks Historical Numbers Against the Spread
No team has exceeded expectations this year as much as the Bucks, and as such they own the top record against the spread at 53-32-4 ATS. The Bucks are tops in every single scenario this season and have been great both on the road an at home, but this sets up as an even better than normal spot. The Bucks have been 27-15-2 ATS on the road, 7-2 as a road dog, and 13-6-3 on multiple days rest (3rd best in the league). This is a great spot for the Bucks to cover.
Celtics Historical Numbers Against the Spread
The Celtics had some high hopes for the regular season, but failed to lock up a top seed. However, they have still been an average team to bet on this season, going 44-43-2 ATS. The Celtics have been pretty much a .500 team both on the road and at home, but have been a well below average team on multiple days rest going 7-10 ATS this season. Overall, this is a below average spot for the Celtics to cover.
Action and Line Movement on the Spread
The line for this game opened at Boston -1 and with 59% of the bets coming in on Boston, the line has moved to -1.5.
Historical Numbers on the Total
Bucks Historical Numbers on the Total
Milwaukee has been involved in so many blowouts this season that they have only covered the over at a slightly below average rate, going 46-42-1. The Bucks have been near identical both on the road and at home at covering the over going 23-21 on the road and 23-21-1 at home, but they have been one of the best teams in the league at covering the over on multiple days rest with a 13-8-1 record. This is a slightly above average spot for the Bucks to cover the over.
Celtics Historical Numbers on the Total
The Celtics have been one of the best defensive teams in the league this year, but they have also covered the over at a well above average rate, going 50-39 (3rd highest rate in the league). The Celtics have been better at covering the over at home this season, going 26-18 at home compared to 24-21 on the road, but the Celtics have been a slightly above average team on multiple days rest going 9-8 this season. This is a slightly above average spot for the Celtics to cover the over.
Action and Line Movement on the Total
The total for this game opened at 221, and with 57% of the money coming in on the over, the line has not moved.
My NBA Pick for May 6, 2019 – Milwaukee Bucks at Boston Celtics
(Top Photo: Bob DeChiara/USA TODAY Sports)