After three weeks of betting on the Alliance of American Football (AAF), two things stand out: home teams winning and low scoring games. Home teams are 9-3 straight up and 8-4 ATS, while the under has cashed in nine of the first 12 games. The AAF got some good news last week with television ratings going up but in terms of sports betting, the league is still just a blip on the gambling radar.
People are watching the AAF
First, the good news. Television ratings on the NFL Network were up from the previous week. Saturday night’s game on the NFL Network drew an average audience of 491,000, up from 424,000 in Week 2. Sunday night’s game between San Diego and San Antonio drew an average audience of 515,000, which was up from 425,000 viewers the prior week.
What makes Sunday night’s audience even more impressive is the AAF was going up against the Oscars on ABC. While not the same exact demographic, people of all ages watch the Oscars, so it’s encouraging the AAF was able to draw such a respectable audience in its third week. We’ll have to see if the viewers stick around though. In the next three weeks, NFL free agency and March Madness could draw interest away from the start-up league.
People aren’t betting on the AAF
While people are tuning in to watch the AAF, they aren’t running to the betting windows to wager on it. AAF betting is still being described as equal to a mid-week college basketball game in terms of handle by most oddsmakers. While the TV ratings are a positive sign, it doesn’t appear the AAF will make a big splash with bettors during its inaugural season.
To read a complete breakdown of or Week 4 power rankings, click here. All lines/odds referenced herein are from the Westgate.
Editor’s Note: Get in one the action and play fantasy AAF on PrizePicks this weekend.
Week 4 Power Rankings and Future Odds
Orlando Apollos (+200)
Birmingham Iron (+300)
San Diego Fleet (+500)
Arizona Hotshots (+275)
Salt Lake Stallions (+1200)
San Antonio Commandeers (+1200)
Memphis Express (+10000)
Atlanta Legends (+10000)
Overview: Teams are starting to separate themselves in the AAF. Orlando and Birmingham look like the class of the league, with San Diego and Arizona right behind. The Hotshots have the second lowest odds to win the championship at +275 but Arizona hasn’t looked impressive since its opening night win over Salt Lake. Now, starting quarterback John Wolford is dealing with a back strain. Trevor Knight didn’t play well after replacing Wolford against Salt Lake but luckily for the Hotshots, they host Atlanta this week, so it probably won’t matter if I start at quarterback for them.
Orlando and Birmingham have both played opponents with combined records of 1-8. You can argue neither team has been challenged yet but going by the eye test, they look like the AAF’s two most talented squads. Tim Lewis is doing an excellent job in his first head coaching stint with Birmingham. The Iron are wearing teams down. Birmingham has outscored its opponents 48-6 in the second half over the first three games. The Iron opened the season +1000 to win the AAF title. Those odds are long gone.
Two teams worth a look in the futures market are San Diego at +500 and Salt Lake +1200. The Fleet opened the year at +1000 but their odds have dropped after two impressive victories over Atlanta and San Antonio. San Diego has the league’s second-best defense behind Birmingham and the Fleet look like they found a quarterback in Philip Nelson. They will be a factor in the playoffs.
Salt Lake’s offense finally came alive last week in a 23-15 win over Arizona. Starting quarterback Josh Woodrum returned from an injury to complete 22 of 31 passes for 178 yards and a touchdown. The Stallions need to sure up a leaky pass defense but if Woodrum provides stability at quarterback, they are a team that can compete with the big boys.
Memphis is finally benching Christian Hackenberg. It only took Mike Singletary three weeks to figure out what the rest of the world already knows: Hackenberg can’t play quarterback. Zach Mettenberger gave the Memphis offense a boost last week, leading the Express to two touchdown drives versus Orlando. I’ve been writing all along that Memphis isn’t as bad as they look outside of Hackenberg. They will beat some teams but at 100/1, the Express are still a longshot to make a title run.
One interesting team is San Antonio. The reason is they are in position to land Johnny Manziel if he decides to play in the AAF. The way the AAF allocation system works, the state where someone played college football is first priority. Manziel played his college football at Texas A&M, giving the Commanders first shot at him. San Antonio has more issues than just quarterback play though – its pass defense has given up the most touchdowns in the AAF – but the potential of adding Manziel makes them intriguing in the futures market.
I said last week when Atlanta was 30/1 that they should be 300/1 to win the AAF championship. The Legends are getting closer. They come in at 100/1 this week. It will be a successful season in Atlanta if they win one game at this point.
Week 4 Matchups, Lines and Picks
San Diego at Memphis
Line: San Diego -6, 40.5
You could just see a change in the entire Memphis team once Mettenberger replaced Hackenberg. If we know Hackenberg stinks, just imagine what the players think. They see the guy everyday in practice. Memphis’ defense has kept the team in the last two games. Now with a quarterback that can throw a forward pass, the Express are a threat to notch its first win of the season.
One issue here though is Memphis ranks last in the AAF in rushing defense (130 yards per game). That’s not good news when facing Ja’Quan Gardner, the AAF’s leading rusher. I like San Diego to win by around a touchdown in a close, hard-fought game. The number is right on here, but I’ll go with San Diego’s running game to wear down Memphis’ defense in the fourth quarter. The Fleet continue their upward trend.
Pick: San Diego -6
Orlando at Salt Lake
Line: Orlando -4, 41.5
This is the toughest game of the weekend to call. Orlando only beat Memphis 21-17 last week but were really in control the entire way. The Apollos kind of sleepwalked through that game. Salt Lake’s pass defense is an issue here, so I like the over 41.5 points. The Stallions’ offense showed signs of life last week with Woodrum back under center. I lean taking the points with Salt Lake at home in what should be an entertaining game.
Pick: Salt Lake +4.5 and Over 41.5
San Antonio at Birmingham
Line: Birmingham -7, 37.5
I absolutely love Birmingham in this spot. San Antonio is reeling following its opening night win over San Diego. The Commanders’ defense is Swiss cheese right now and quarterback Logan Woodside isn’t the answer. Marques Williams replaced Woodside late versus San Diego and both could play on Sunday. Birmingham has feasted on bad quarterbacks. Expect that trend to continue as the Iron win comfortably at home.
Pick: Birmingham +7
Atlanta at Arizona
Line: Arizona -13.5, 41
I took Atlanta +7 last week and they were beaten handily at home by Birmingham, 28-12. Thought about taking the points again with Atlanta but then heard Matt Simms is starting again at quarterback. I just can’t put my money on that guy. The Legends haven’t come close to winning any of its four AAF games (preseason and regular season), getting outscored 129-41. I’d love to take the points here but can’t back this atrocious Atlanta team on the road. Arizona gets right this week, especially if Wolford starts at quarterback.
Pick: Arizona -13.5