Alabama and Clemson have been on a collision course all season. The two will meet to decide college football’s national champion for the third time in four years. It’s also the fourth straight year the teams will face each other in the College Football Playoff with Alabama winning two of the three prior meetings.
The Crimson Tide and Tigers have been the favorites to win the national title since August. When it became evident the two teams were likely to ultimately meet once again to decide a champion, some sportsbooks put out an early line for the game. The Golden Nugget in Las Vegas originally made Alabama an 8.5-point favorite in the matchup.
“We put up some scenarios back in October. Way back then I opened up Alabama 8.5,” said Tony Miller, Sportsbook Director at the Golden Nugget. “They took Clemson at 8.5 and we dropped it to 7.5. When we opened it up again last week, we made Alabama 5.5. They bet it up to -6 and now it’s back down 5.5. We have some liability at Clemson +8.5.”
Line moves to Clemson early
The line opened Alabama -6.5 at most sportsbooks but the number has come down with early money backing Clemson. In Las Vegas, the Westgate LV SuperBook and Wynn dropped the Crimson Tide to 4.5, while CG Technology, MGM and South Point are at 5.5 as of Saturday. In New Jersey, FanDuel had Alabama -5.5 with DraftKings and SugarHouse at -5.
“We opened Alabama -6.5 and we’re down to 5.5. It’s been pretty good action on Clemson but nothing crazy yet,” said South Point Sportsbook Director Chris Andrews. “Now that we’re at 5.5 the money is evening out pretty good. We never have to go begging too hard for Alabama money but there’s definitely a trend on Clemson.”
Public likely to back Alabama
It’s hard to predict where the line will go in a game as big as this one. Depending on the sportsbook, money could come in on different sides. While the line has shifted towards Clemson early, that might change as we get closer to kickoff and the public comes in on Alabama.
“I think they’re going to bet Bama at the end,” said Miller. “They’re a very public team. The money is going to come in on them from the general public. They’re big, big Bama supporters both for the first half and the game. The ticket count is already lopsided on Alabama. We just have some higher volume bets on Clemson with the sharps taking them +6.”
Even game between two dominant teams
The Crimson Tide have been at least 13-point favorites in every game but two this season. Alabama is 14-0 SU and 8-6 ATS with an average winning margin of 31.5 points.
Alabama defeated Oklahoma 45-34 in the semifinals as a 14.5-favorite in a game not as close as the final score suggests. The Tide have now been favored in 54 straight games. The last time they were an underdog was to Georgia in 2015.
Clemson has been almost as dominant as Alabama this season. The Tigers have been a double-digit favorite in every game this year, going 14-0 SU and 8-6 ATS. Clemson dismantled Notre Dame 38-3 in the semifinals, easily covering as a 10.5-point favorite. The last time Clemson was an underdog to a team not named Alabama came in the 2016-17 College Football Playoff to Ohio State. The Tigers won easily 31-0 as a 1-point dog.
At the South Point, Andrews thinks that in such an even game, money could continue to come in on the underdog.
“I think the number might go a little lower but I really hate predicting which way a line will go though” Andrews said. “You look at the Ohio State game (Rose Bowl). It was all Ohio State. Then the last couple of days it was all Washington. You never know which way the trend is going to go. I always say we move with our business. When we get bet, we move it. When we don’t get bet, we don’t move it.”
Action split on the total
Bettors have been split on the total, which isn’t surprising given how equal the two teams are statistically. The game features two of the top five offenses and defenses in the nation. The total opened 60 and sits at 59 at most books on Saturday.
Alabama averaged 47.7 points per game and went OVER 60 points in all but two games this year. The Crimson Tide surrendered just 14.8 points per game, the fourth fewest in college football.
Meanwhile, Clemson averaged 44.3 points per game but only went OVER 60 points in five of 14 games. The Tigers allowed just 13.7 points per game, ranking second in the nation.
Two of the previous three meetings between the two teams in the College Football Playoff went OVER 60 points with an average combined score of 60.3.
“We have a little bit more towards the UNDER,” Andrews said. “We opened 60 and we’re down to 59. The trend looks a little bit towards the UNDER but nothing crazy. We’ll see a lot more action come gameday.”
Bettors not tired of Alabama/Clemson
In the 2016 and 2017 national title games, Clemson was a 6.5-point underdog — covering both and winning one outright. Last season in the semifinals, Clemson failed to cover as a 3-point dog in a 24-6 loss.
There’s been some talk about this game not generating interest because the two teams have played so often in recent year. Reports are ticket sales are way down for the game. However, that lack of interest hasn’t translated over to the betting market.
“The betting action has been great,” Andrews said. “I can’t speak about the ticket sales. That’s a whole different thing. I see some of the TV ratings and they’re disappointing. I just look at our handle and it’s very strong for the game. It will be nothing but a ton of action by Monday night.”