Clemson and Alabama will meet for the third time in four years to decide college football’s national champion. For sports betting purposes, it’s a tough game to handicap between two teams that feature offenses and defenses ranked in the Top 5.
If you don’t have a strong opinion on the side or total, there are plenty of intriguing prop bets for bettors to dive into Monday night.
If you look at the numbers, the two teams are almost identical. Alabama averaged 47.7 points per game, ranking second in FBS to Oklahoma (48.4). The Crimson Tide scored at least 45 points 10 times and put up 50+ points in eight of 14 games.
On defense, Alabama surrendered just 14.8 points per game, the fourth fewest in college football. The Tide held opponents to 14 points or fewer seven times, although Alabama has allowed at least 21 points in three straight games.
Meanwhile, Clemson averaged 44.3 points per game, the fourth-most in FBS. The Tigers topped 40 points eight times this year.
Matchup between two dominant teams
Clemson’s defense dominated the ACC, giving up just 13.7 points per game, ranking second in the nation. The Tigers allowed 10 points or fewer in nine of 14 games, including holding Notre Dame to only a field goal in the semifinals.
Two of the previous three meetings between the teams in the College Football Playoff went OVER 60 points with an average combined score of 60.3. Last year’s matchup went UNDER the total in a game where Alabama’s defense led the Tide to a 24-6 win. However, Clemson is much more dangerous on offense this season with Trevor Lawrence at quarterback.
The thing that makes this game hard to predict is both coaches will adapt to game flow. Because the two teams are so balanced, they can win either a defensive struggle or shootout. Nick Saban and Dabo Swinney will play conservatively or wide open, depending how the game goes early. It really depends if the quarterbacks or defenses take control of the game in the first half.
One thing to note: Alabama has played by far its toughest opponents in the last two games (Georgia and Oklahoma) and allowed a total of 62 points. The Tide had given up 69 points in their previous six games.
Here is a look at some of the top prop plays for Monday night’s game and what the numbers say for each one (lines current as of time of publishing):
Tua Tagovailoa total passing yards: 284.5 (-115 both ways) (FanDuel)
Clemson’s defense is strong in all phases but teams have had more success throwing the ball against the Tigers than trying to challenge their No. 2 ranked rush defense. Clemson still ranks 16th in the nation against the pass, allowing 182.1 yards per game. However, in two games against SEC teams, the Tigers gave up 430 yards to Texas A&M’s Kellen Mond and 510 yards to South Carolina’s Jake Bentley.
Tua has eclipsed 285 yards seven times this season and he’s gone over 300 yards in three of Alabama’s last four games. The one time he didn’t reach that mark though came against Georgia’s Top-15 pass defense. Tua will likely need a big game Monday night for Alabama to claim its sixth national title in 10 years but this number looks pretty tight. (At DraftKings Sportsbook the number is 280.5 but -125).
Trevor Lawrence total passing yards: 252.5 (FanDuel)
While Tua is important to Alabama’s chances of emerging victorious Monday night, it’s hard to imagine a scenario where Clemson wins if Lawrence plays poorly. The freshman will face a stiff test against Saban and an Alabama defense that has a history of befuddling young quarterbacks.
The Crimson Tide rank 22nd against the pass allowing 187.6 yards per game. That stat is a little misleading though because the Tide have jumped out to such a big lead in almost every game that teams are forced to throw the ball against them. Oklahoma’s Kyler Murray threw for 308 yards in the semifinals but again, the Sooners trailed 31-10 at halftime.
In the one competitive game Alabama played this season. Georgia’s Jake Fromm threw for 301 yards and three scores. Lawrence has gone over 253 yards just five times this year but they’ve all come in his last eight starts. There’s some value here with this number if you think Clemson will have success on offense. (The number is 245.5 at DraftKings but again, the price on the over is higher at -125).
Damien Harris total rushing yards: 55.5 (FanDuel)
This total looks a little high for Harris. Clemson is the second ranked rush defense in the nation, allowing just 92.6 yards per game and an FBS-best 2.4 yards per carry.
Not only does Harris have to deal with Clemson’s defense, he also has to worry about losing carries to the emerging Josh Jacobs. Jacobs has rushed for 181 yards on 23 carries in the last two games. He was named the MVP of the 2018 SEC Championship Game after rushing for 83 yards with two touchdowns.
Harris has rushed for 55+ yards seven times this season but in the last three games he’s put up 41, 52 and 48 yards. Jacobs’ total is 47.5 yards on FanDuel, so books don’t see a significant difference between the two. It makes taking the OVER with Harris a risky play. When you factor in the presence of Jacobs combined with Clemson’s stout rush defense, it’s going to be tough for Harris to hit this number.
Travis Etienne total rushing yards: 82.5 (FanDuel)
Etienne is the X-factor in this game. While Lawrence gets most of the attention, it’s Etienne who makes Clemson’s offense go. Etienne has eclipsed 150 yards six times this year and has put up totals of 109, 150 and 156 yards in his last three games.
A cause for concern is Etienne faced one Top 20 rush defense (Texas A&M) this season and was held to 44 yards, although he had only eight carries in the game. Alabama ranks 19th in rush defense, allowing 120.3 yards per game. Georgia’s dynamic duo of D’Andre Swift (16/75) and Elijah Holyfield (14/60) each averaged more than 4.0 yards per carry against the Tide.
If you like Clemson tonight, OVER Etienne rushing yards is worth considering.
Jerry Jeudy total receiving yards: 74.5 (FanDuel)
Alabama has two explosive receivers in Jeudy and Henry Ruggs III. Jeudy’s total is at 74.5, while Ruggs is sitting at a more modest 52.5.
Jeudy has gone OVER the number eight times this season but has failed to reach 75 yards in three of his last five games (He had 73 vs. Oklahoma). Meanwhile, Ruggs has topped his total seven times but has just 63 yards combined in his last two games.
Jeudy is the safer bet but with a good Clemson defense paying extra attention to Alabama’s top receiver, Ruggs is tempting with a total 22 yards lower.
Josh Jacobs to score the first touchdown +1100
If you’re looking to take a shot on a player to score first in the game, Jacobs has value at playMGM NJ where he’s +1100. That line is +950 at FanDuel, +900 at BetStars and +850 at some other books.
As we mentioned above, Jacobs is becoming a bigger factor in the Tide’s offense, both as a runner and receiver. He has 13 total touchdowns on the season and four in his last three games.
Harris only has nine scores on the season and his odds are lower at +600. Etienne is the favorite at +450 but Jacobs represents the best value on the board given his usage (36 touches) over the last three games.